July 3, 2024
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Will Biden’s Dazed Debate Performance Move Swing Voters? Debate Gives Voters an ‘Out’ More than Anything Else
By Manzanita Miller
Speculation is flying after the first and only presidential debate of 2024 which aired last Thursday, with the broad consensus being that President Joe Biden’s performance was at minimum troubling enough to prompt serious discussions about replacing him as the Democratic nominee. That said, a replacement strategy for Democrats has not been fleshed out, and it is still entirely possible that Biden will remain former President Donald Trump’s key challenger leading into November.
What we do know is that Biden’s performance – which included meandering and incoherent answers, and a predominantly dazed expression throughout much the of the debate – has deeply troubled the American people.
While some polls post-debate show a majority of Democrats still support Biden as the nominee, several polls show wide deficits for Biden among groups he relied on heavily in 2020, including women, young people, minorities and independents. These are groups Biden has been suffering with due to the state of the economy, uncontrolled inflation, and the border crisis for months now, but the debate did nothing to reestablish their support.
A USA Today / Suffolk University poll released Tuesday found that Trump has edged ahead of Biden compared to the same poll in May, now leading Biden 41 percent to 38 percent. In May, the two were equally tied 37 percent to 37 percent. That poll also found 41% of Democrats want Biden replaced as the nominee.
The shift is narrow, but there are much wider concerns based on the share of swing voters and Democrats post-debate who now say Biden should step aside.
A YouGov poll conducted over the weekend showed a modest majority of Democrats – 55 percent – say that Biden should keep running while 45 percent say he should step down. A full 70 percent of independent or uncommitted voters say after Thursday’s debate Biden should step aside.
Biden underperformed in the debate – he was seen as shockingly fragile and ineffective – but there is consensus that Trump slightly exceeded expectations. Going into the debate pundits voiced that Trump had to appear less antagonistic and more presidential to court swing voters, and there is strong evidence that he achieved that.
The debate was an opportunity for Americans to evaluate the general demeanor and optics of each candidate and Trump was the clear winner. By broad consensus, Trump appeared “more presidential”, a better communicator, and better able to articulate his vision compared to Biden.
Americans say by eighteen points, 46 percent to 28 percent, that Trump appeared more “presidential” than Biden during the debate. The American people also say Trump inspired confidence over Biden by 26 points, 44 percent to just 18 percent. Americans also say Trump presented ideas clearly over Biden by 26 points, 47 percent to 21 percent.
The debate produced dismal numbers for Biden among groups he has already been suffering with due to his record over the past four years. Independents say Trump appeared more presidential by 23 points, 41 percent to 18 percent. Hispanics say Trump appeared more presential by 19 points, 34 percent to 15 percent. Young people narrowly say Trump appeared more presidential (26 percent) than Biden (22 percent), and women say Trump appeared more presidential by 13 points, 35 percent to 22 percent.
According to the poll, 56 percent of Americans say Trump won Thursday’s debate, 28 percent say it was a tie, and 16 percent claim Biden won. Young people say Trump won the debate by 19 points, 42 percent to 23 percent. Hispanics maintain that Trump won the debate by 34 points, 49 percent to just 15 percent. Women also agree Trump won by a 34-point margin, 52 percent to 18 percent.
These numbers are staggeringly low compared to polling conducted after the final presidential debate between Trump and Biden in 2020. At that time, there was broad consensus among swing voters – who went on to support Biden in November – that Biden had won that debate.
After the final 2020 debate, independents said Biden won by 19 points and went on to support him by 13 points in November. Women said Biden won by 25 points and ended up supporting him by eight points in November, and young people said Biden beat Trump by a resounding 39 points and then supported him by 24 points in November.
While debates are far from the end all be all, and merely a fragment of data in a sea of other variables that can impact an election, it is telling that key groups of voters who believed in Biden’s debate performance in 2020 and ended up supporting him at the ballot box are now saying Biden lost the only debate of 2024.
It is unlikely Biden’s poor debate performance significantly altered a trajectory that was not already in motion among swing voters. If anything, Biden’s disorganized and at times incoherent performance is simply another factor driving swing voters away from him.
Biden’s poor performance can also be seen as an excuse that independents and even former Biden voters can arm themselves with to justify their unwillingness to support his bid. The debate gave voters an “out”, and whether they use that to demand a new candidate, refuse to vote at all, or flip their support to Trump or Robert F. Kennedy Jr., remains to be seen. Swing voters now have a strong justification for why they aren’t supporting Biden, even if his inept handling of immigration, the economy and the global political climate are also massive factors.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/07/will-bidens-dazed-debate-performance-move-swing-voters-debate-gives-voters-an-out-more-than-anything-else/
Cartoon: The Cure
By A.F. Branco
Click here for a higher level resolution version.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/07/cartoon-the-cure/
Video: Biden’s Nightmare: Betrayal from Democrats
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxzlC4T7wYc
Judge Merchan flinches as Trump sentencing in New York City postponed until September
By Robert Romano
New York City Judge Juan Merchan has postponed the sentencing of former President Donald Trump following his conviction of federal campaign violations, from July 11 to Sept. 18, after Trump filed an appeal to overturn the conviction in light of the Supreme Court’s ruling on July 1 that both presidents and former presidents enjoy some immunity for official actions taken during their tenures of office.
Although it is unclear how Trump’s lawyers will be able to show how the payments from then-Trump lawyer Michael Cohen to Stormy Daniels in 2016 may be tied to any official action by Trump as President — he did not take office until Jan. 20, 2017 — the Supreme Court’s ruling nonetheless presented an opportunity for Trump to test the question, necessitating the sentencing delay as both teams of lawyers get a chance to argue.
Otherwise, Trump would have been facing sentencing on July 11 — with the potential of being imprisoned — just days before he was set to accept the Republican Party’s nomination at the July 15-18 convention in Milwaukee, Wis.
If Trump had been jailed, there certainly would have been calls — even if unsuccessful — to replace Trump as the candidate at the convention, similar to the calls now to replace President Joe Biden after displaying visible confusion and an inability to coherently convey his thoughts in his June 27 debate with Trump.
Just imagine such an outcome: After nearly 17 million votes were cast for Trump in the Republican Primary as he swept 49 out of 50 states, and more than 14 million votes were cast for Biden as he won 50 out of 50 states, somehow, the crises of Trump’s conviction and Biden’s enfeeblement could overturn the verdict of voters.
Certainly, that was and is the point of the Trump prosecutions: To make it so he could not win the primaries, or if he won the primaries, to push the party to replace him at the convention, or if nominated, to render him unelectable in the general election. But with Trump having led national polls since Sept. 2023 — implying the national popular vote is in play — and his lead only widening after the June 27 debate, the gambit to prosecute Trump appears to have backfired.
Now, the prospects of a crisis convention have been averted, thankfully, as the prospect of the leader of the opposition party being jailed just days before his nominating convention would have truly been dictatorial — the prosecutions in New York, Georgia, Miami, Fla. and Washington, D.C. are all led by Democratic prosecutors — and have the appearance of taking the choice of the president away from the American people.
Whatever the merits of his presidential immunity appeal as it relates to the New York case, the Sept. 18 sentencing only delays the same exact constitutional crisis in the presidential election, where Trump could be potentially imprisoned, this time as the Republican nominee — even if nobody is expecting such an outcome — less than two months before Election Day.
For Biden’s part, if he is unable to serve as a candidate, there appears to be no way he could possibly continue serving as President, meaning he should either resign or else Vice President Kamala Harris and the Cabinet need to invoke the 25th Amendment, whatever the political fallout of such a chaotic undertaking might be.
If, by then, polls still show Trump ahead of Biden (or whoever replaces him), Judge Merchan will have to decide if he alone will be the person who potentially determines the outcome of the 2024 election by either jailing Trump, or letting him go, with all of the unintended consequences that follow each option.
It could be that jailing Trump makes him unelectable and the Democratic nominee would easily win, or that it might significantly backfire, and catapult Trump to a landslide. Nobody knows the outcome.
If nothing else, the delay now means if Democrats including Merchan are dedicated to putting Trump behind bars, they’ll have to also contend with the fact that he will by then officially be the Republican nominee for president who will be on the ballot in all 50 states. On July 11, the convention wouldn’t have happened yet.
Which serves everyone right. If Democrats want to jail their opponent, there should be no half measures, let it be the nominee. Show everyone what tyrants you really are — or cowards as you shrink from operating the political guillotine.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/07/judge-merchan-flinches-as-trump-sentencing-in-new-york-city-postponed-until-september/
Roman Buhler: In The 2024 Platform, Republicans Must Not Retreat on The Goal of “Deconstructing the Administrative State”
By Roman Buhler
In 2016 the Republican Party National Platform and Donald J. Trump endorsed the proposed “Regulation Freedom Amendment” to the U.S. Constitution to permanently require that major new federal regulations be approved by Congress.
To emphasize the GOP’s continued commitment to permanently dismantling the administrative state, the 2024 National Party Platform should include the same language endorsing the “Regulation Freedom Amendment.”
Unanimously endorsed by the RNC, Resolutions passed by 29 State Legislative Chambers, former Reagan Attorney General Ed Meese, and many other conservatives, the “Regulation Freedom Amendment” simply states:
“Whenever one quarter of the Members of the U.S. House or the U.S. Senate transmit to the President their written declaration of opposition to a proposed federal regulation, it shall require a majority vote of the House and Senate to adopt that regulation."
The simple, basic principle is that a majority of the Minority Party in the House or Senate, always 25% of a legislative body, should have the right to demand a vote on a regulation, no matter how much bureaucrats say it will cost, before it goes into effect.
A law with this requirement could easily be repealed by the left’s next trifecta majority willing to dispense with the Senate filibuster.
Court rulings that partially curb the authority of bureaucrats still require expensive lawsuits to enforce and leave intact the basic authority to dictate rules for regulators to abuse.
Only a Constitutional Amendment can permanently end the power of unelected bureaucrats to rule, threaten, and intimidate by regulatory decree.
While enacting a Constitutional Amendment will be difficult, framing the issue for voters in simple, Constitutional terms highlights the hypocrisy of Democrats who claim to believe in “democracy” but actually prefer “bureaucracy.”
It is easy for Republicans to challenge Democrats to answer a simple question:
“Should major new federal regulations be dictated by unelected Washington bureaucrats, or should they be approved be elected representatives of the people?”
While Democrats hypocritically accuse Republicans of wanting a “dictator,” Democrats’ demonstrated preference for preserving the dictatorial power of the administrative state reveals the Democrats’ true authoritarian intentions.
Republicans should not be satisfied with temporarily repealing a few regulations, that could be reimposed by the left’s next Administration.
To appeal to voters who want real change that creates economic growth and new jobs, permanently drains the swamp and takes power out or Washington, Republicans should keep their language endorsing the “Regulation Freedom Amendment” in the 2024 National Party Platform.
Roman Buhler is the Director of the Madison Coalition.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/07/in-the-2024-platform-republicans-must-not-retreat-on-the-goal-of-deconstructing-the-administrative-state/