In late March, four Tajikistan-born gunmen unloaded bullets into the auditorium at Crocus City Hall on the outskirts of Moscow, killing more than 140 concertgoers in the deadliest terror attack on Russian soil in years. Although Russia’s government initially linked the episode to its war in Ukraine, an Afghan affiliate of the Islamic State, known as the Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K), claimed responsibility. Authorities have said the attackers were in Russia on temporary or expired work visas. Among other repercussions, the attack ramped up public animosity towards Tajik and other Central Asian immigrants in Russia, as well as Russia’s non-Slavic ethnic minorities. Immigrants, especially those with Asian features, have reported facing abuse from bystanders and a crackdown by authorities. The Russian government has ramped up scrutiny of new arrivals, and leaders in Tajikistan and elsewhere have warned their nationals against going to Russia, at least temporarily. Unsurprisingly, many immigrants have returned to their origin countries. The situation has aggravated complicated dynamics for both Russia and the labor migrants living and working there. As Caress Schenk explored in the Migration Information Source last year, millions of immigrants from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and elsewhere form a critical pillar of Russia’s economy, and in some ways have become more important as Russia’s isolation has grown following its invasion of Ukraine. While expressions of nationalism could help Russian leaders withstand growing global pressure, an exodus of Central Asian workers could exacerbate inflation and hurt the economy. For migrants, Russian jobs have long promised access to money that can help support families at home (remittances accounted for more than half of Tajikistan’s gross domestic product and more than one-quarter of Kyrgyzstan’s in 2022, according to the World Bank). Anything that threatens those paychecks could have serious downstream ramifications. Will Central Asian migrants stay home or start to look for other destinations? There are signs that some migrants from Tajikistan and elsewhere have begun to seek out the European Union, the United Kingdom, or the United States. More than 12,400 migrants from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, or Tajikistan were encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year (FY) 2023, up from just a few dozen in previous years. (U.S. security officials have also eyed the increase, and last month eight Tajik asylum seekers were arrested following a counterterrorism investigation into their possible ties with the Islamic State. Separately, the Department of Homeland Security has identified more than 400 arrivals from Central Asia and elsewhere who were brought by an ISIS-affiliated smuggling network; while more than 150 have been arrested, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is searching for others.) A major shift of Central Asian migration away from Russia seems unlikely, given political, economic, and social ties are so deep and longstanding. But even if migration patterns stay the same, growing anti-immigrant sentiment in Russia would be one more challenge that Central Asian laborers must manage. Best regards, Julian Hattem
Editor, Migration Information Source
[email protected] |
