Breaking down the news with data, charts, and maps.

Edited by Sutton Houser and James Desio
Good morning, and welcome back!

It’s debate week—buckle up for a special, poll-filled newsletter! Ahead of tonight’s presidential debate, we’re focusing on three key election data points: new polls on Trump vs. Biden, the GOP’s foreign policy consensus, and the declining focus on abortion news.

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1. A Close Race: Trump vs. Biden
Topline: AEI’s Chris Stirewalt provides his election analysis <[link removed]> ahead of the first presidential rematch since Dwight Eisenhower vs. Adlai Stevenson II in 1956. Despite both candidates being well-known, Stirewalt expects this debate to change the landscape of the race as previously undecided, tuned-out, or persuadable voters make up their minds.

Polling shifts: Stirewalt
notes President Biden’s recent five-point bump is largely due to uncommitted voters and former Robert F. Kennedy Jr. voters shifting to Biden; former President Donald Trump’s criminal conviction likely helped too.

Fun fact: Tonight’s debate is also the earliest general election debate in the 64-year history of presidential
debates.
2. Is the GOP Uniting on Foreign Policy?
Topline: Despite the appearance of a divided GOP, a recent Ronald Reagan Institute poll <[link removed]> shows unity among Republicans on key foreign policy issues. AEI’s Marc Thiessen explains <[link removed]> the surprising consensus among MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans regarding Ukraine, Israel, and NATO. 



- 70% of MAGA and 64% of non-MAGA Republicans agree that it is important to the US that Ukraine win the war with Russia.




- 72% of MAGA and 65% of
non-MAGA Republicans support Israeli military action in Gaza until it has removed the threat posed by Hamas. 




- 69% of MAGA and 63% of
non-MAGA Republicans support using military force if a NATO ally in Europe is attacked—but this support drops to 46% and 43%, respectively, if the ally doesn’t meet its defense-spending commitment.







“Most important, the narrative of a schism in the GOP between the ‘internationalist’ Republican establishment and
‘isolationist’ Trump supporters is false.” 
—Marc Thiessen
3. Attention for Abortion News Declines
Topline: Two years since the overturning of Roe v. Wade, Democrats still rely abortion as a key election issue <[link removed]>. However, recent polling by AEI’s Daniel Cox shows <[link removed]> Americans are paying less attention to abortion-related news: Only 51% of Americans follow the issue closely.

The divide: Cox notes that attention varies by party lines. He writes, “70% of self-identified liberals say they are following news about abortion laws closely, compared to [48%] of conservatives.”

Deep-dive: 68% of Democrat women closely follow the issue—compared to 63% of Democratic men, 49% of Republican women, and 45% of Republican men.
Last but Not Least . . .
Data Center Electricity Use: The Problem <[link removed]>
Commercial Real Estate and Bank Systemic Risk <[link removed]>
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