Friend, 

People often get the concept of “floors” and “ceilings” wrong in politics. Too many pundits say things like, “but MAGA will let Trump shoot someone on Fifth Avenue” as a response to his felony convictions. This is true. But this is a really crucial mistake. Yes, his floor isn't changing. 

They're too focused on wondering why his base isn't going away to realize that every one of these stories is affecting his ceiling. Trump probably won't crack 47% this year. Now it might be 46%. Why?

He's losing his ceiling. He needs to win over all those Haley voters and national security voters and the last few Reagan Republicans who still believe America needs to be the city on the hill.

And he’s failing. It's a huge weakness. And when we see a crack in his facade? You know we jump all over it.

It’s up to us to flip these marginal voters. We know they’re vulnerable. We know they’re embarrassed to admit that their party has gone down the toilet all because of some criminal from Manhattan. They’ve stuck by the party through a mismanaged pandemic, four indictments, an insurrection, and a conviction. Sure, these voters are resilient, but they’re also human.

That’s why we’re showing them this ad. It’s time for the Republicans of years past to realize that the party they once knew is dead, and it has been for some time. The only way to restore even an ounce of decency to the right side of the aisle is to destroy Donald Trump once and for all in November. Help us spread the word >>

-The Lincoln Project