Another successful RCV primary in Arlington!

Dear John,

Last Tuesday marked Arlington, Virginia's second Democratic County Board primary with ranked choice voting (RCV). JD Spain won with 55% of the vote, after having led among voters’ first choices with 32%.

In a race with competing policy interests, RCV gave voters the power to rank the candidates that represented their interests best. RCV delivered a majority winner with both deep and broad support in a crowded contest. It also encouraged candidates to conduct more positive campaigns and seek support from more voters – even as their second choice. 95% of voters expressed their preference between the two strongest candidates.

It’s no surprise that in new exit polling, 88% of Arlington voters said RCV was easy and 67% want to use it again, with overwhelming majority support across demographic groups. After similarly positive support following Arlington’s 2023 RCV primary, the county made RCV permanent for County Board primaries and will pilot its use for the 2024 general election.

Read on to learn how RCV solved the “vote-splitting” problem in Arlington, and how Arlington is setting an example for Virginia and the DMV region.

RCV solves “vote-splitting” and delivers a representative outcome

Local papers, elected officials, and organizations embraced RCV and offered ranked endorsements of candidates – and their endorsements clarify how the candidates broke on housing and other important issues.

The GazetteLeader endorsed Natalie Roy and Julie Farnam, who both ran more development-skeptical campaigns; the urbanist site Greater Greater Washington and several local politicians endorsed Spain and Peterson, who both support more housing. James DeVita also criticized Arlington’s current “Missing Middle” housing expansion policy.

Notably, RCV allowed a crowded contest without voters “splitting the vote” between multiple candidates with similar views. 89% of Farnam, DeVita, and Peterson voters took advantage of the opportunity to rank their ballot and weigh in between the two leading candidates – JD Spain and Natalie Roy. In total, 95% of all voters expressed their preference between Spain and Roy.

When Farnam was eliminated, a plurality of her voters (38%) ranked Roy as their second choice. When DeVita was eliminated, 52% of those voters ranked Roy as their backup choice. When Peterson was eliminated, 62% of those voters ranked Spain as their backup choice.

Ultimately, RCV delivered a majority winner with both deep (1st-choice) and broad (backup-choice) support. Spain received the most first choices, but needed backup-choice support – largely from Peterson voters – to complete his majority coalition and secure a win. Without RCV, Spain may still have won the race – but with less than one-third of the vote, and most voters opposing him.

Read our full analysis of Arlington's RCV primary online.

Arlington sets an example for Virginia and the region

Contrast Arlington’s experience with single-choice primaries held in Virginia, Maryland, and Washington D.C. this May and June.

As our colleague Bryan Huang writes, in Virginia’s 7th and 10th Congressional Districts, candidates won with as little as 30% of their party behind them – putting their parties in a worse position going into the general election. The 10th District Democratic primary was also noted for its toxicity, with personal attacks taking center stage instead of candidates broadening their coalition. A new study in Election Studies finds the latter is exactly what happens in localities with RCV, which see "greater incidences of voter contacting."

As our colleague Rachel Hutchinson writes, multiple Maryland congressional nominees will also compete in the general election with a minority of support from their own party. In the open 3rd Congressional District, the Democratic and Republican primaries were won with just 35% and 25% of the vote, respectively.

And as Matt Oberstaedt writes, three out of four voters picked someone other than the winner of the likely decisive Democratic primary for Washington, D.C.’s open Ward 7 council seat.

RCV is the fastest-growing election reform in the nation, with 50 cities, counties, and states using it in their public elections. In addition to Arlington, it is widely used in Virginia party-run contests on both the Democratic and GOP sides. Virginia Republicans used RCV to nominate their successful 2021 ticket, led by now-Governor Glenn Youngkin.

We hope Arlington’s success will inspire other nearby communities to reform their elections as well. Visit UpVote Virginia, Ranked Choice Voting Maryland, and Make All Votes Count DC today to help bring RCV to your community!

Sincerely,
Deb Otis, director of research and policy
Ben Fitzgerald, research and policy intern

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