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FROM ITALIA: BEHIND THE CURTAIN OF THE EU ELECTIONS ALL IS NOT WHAT
IT SEEMS  
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Nicola Benvenuti
June 17, 2024
Stansbury Forum
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_ The danger from the right is becoming more marked and is shifting
West, whereas until a few years ago the right was rooted in former
socialist countries. The hope is now that moderate components of the
center looks unambiguously towards the left. _

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The results of the European elections on June 9-10 will have
significant consequences for the political balance in the European
Union: the majority of the European Parliament remains on paper with a
pro-European orientation (the _European Popular Party_ (EPP), the
winners of the elections, the _European Socialists_, the liberals
of _Renew_ Europe) but the shift to the right, especially at the
expense of liberals and greens, has been marked. 

In Italy the electoral debate focused on national controversies and
only lightly touched on European politics; in particular, the absence
of the theme of peace as a political determinant of the vote was
surprising, perhaps because pacifism is today a watchword especially
of the radical right and of pro-Putin positions. 

Abstentionism also increased: 49.68% of those entitled to vote voted,
compared to 56.09% in 2019. In this climate abstentionism is not
disinterest, it is dissatisfaction with what is offered, and voters
are waiting for something that there still is not. Further assessments
of the European political balance will depend on the composition of
the European Council that will elect the President: the EPP has
announced that it will re-nominate Ursula von der Leyen, but other
names are also being mentioned, including Mario Draghi, past Prime
Minister of Italy. 

More disruptive consequences occurred in individual countries.  In
France where the rightwing LePen front leaped to 31%, outclassing
President Macron’s party.  Macron acknowledged the defeat, and
dissolved the National Assembly the same evening as the results. The
new elections will be held on June 30th: the victory of Jordan
Bardella, face of the LePen front, is looming and the beginning of a
long period of difficult coexistence between the Presidency and the
government. Soon after Macron’s call for reelections left wing
leaders, including the hard left _France Unbowed_ (LFI), the
Socialist, _Communist_ and _Green_ parties, agreed on an election
alliance called the _New Popular Front_. However one swallow does
not make it springtime! The “rassemblement de la gauche” is
against LePen (and in fact being against has already worked in France,
but in the presidential elections) … the problems emerge when one
advocates for something. If it works in the political elections, that
is, not only to block Le Pen’s path, but to build a government, it
would be a miracle. The timeframes are really very tight and the
divisions are marked. We shall see.

In Germany _Alternative fur Deutschland_ (AfD) has become the second
party (+5 points compared to the 2019 elections) behind
the _CDU-CSU_ centre, but ahead of Chancellor
Scholz’s _SPD_ which has already been tested by the disappointing
results of 2019. _Greens_also suffered a significant decline. The
stability of the Scholz government is uncertain but no elections are
expected until the natural deadline in the autumn of 2025. 

Even in Austria the right reached 25.5%, while in Belgium the
government resigned after the outcome of the vote. Going against the
rightward trend, in the Netherlands the Labor-Green alliance stopped
Wilders’ far-right. The question arises as to where France and
Germany are going and whether they will go in the same direction or
will they diverge for the first time since the birth of the EU? 

A stalemate situation is emerging for the EU which has already
demonstrated that it is unable to play an autonomous and incisive role
in foreign and economic policy – exemplified by its inability to
define an autonomous policy on the war in Ukraine. Several times the
USA (and Trump in his own way) have signaled their intention to
disengage from Europe (read push the Europeans to commit more to
European defense) to dedicate the USA to confrontation with China.
Already in the Mediterranean and the Middle East you can see the
presence of the Russians, the Turks (Libya). Among the EU tasks to be
faced there are also economic ones, like_ _the green turn,  closing
the gap with the US on information technologies, energy policy,
etc. To solve these problems more integration is needed (but the
right wants less of it).  On the military question, better
coordination between European countries would perhaps be sufficient
even without increasing expenses,just as the coordination of European
finances would also be very useful for eliminating tax havens present
in Europe._ _The EU urgently needs greater integration between the
different countries on military and fiscal grounds, as well as the
abolishment of the right of the veto which blocks every decision.
Now Timothy Gordon Ash’s prediction from a few weeks ago
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the strengthening of Greater Germany, even in the military sphere
after the economic one, seems more uncertain. 

The danger from the right is becoming more marked and is shifting
towards the West, whereas until a few years ago the right was rooted
above all in former socialist countries. With it, the attempt to
constitutionalize the European right began to make it attractive in a
coalition policy: individual exponents of the _EPP_, even within the
various countries (for example the Gaullist right whose president
looks to an alliance with Le Pen, exponent of those forces and
ideologies against which Gaullism was born and established itself),
are already moving in this direction. 

This context is reflected by the pro-Atlanticism and pro-European
reliability of the Meloni government: while the outflanking of
the _Fratelli d’Italia_ on the right by the _Liga_ – and in
France by Le Pen’s Éric Zemmour – perhaps suggests that there are
two right-wing parties, one with the more moderate Conservatives and
one with Identity and Democracy more to the right. For
the _Liga_ their extreme right turn is almost suicidal to the point
that its old founder, Umberto Bossi, openly disavowed it. Even if the
candidacy of an openly fascist leader like General Vannacci, brought
to the _Liga_ by its leader, the shaky Matteo Salvini, 500,000
preferences (and maybe this is the real news). This explains the
evident contradictions of Meloni: reassuring and reliable (in the
Atlanticist sense) in foreign policy, but at the same time employing
nostalgic identity politics internally. Positions she hopes will hold
together the hard core of the party made up of violent and even
criminal groups, not to mention its management group inhabited by
former thugs, including collaborators with organzied crime.

 Meloni’s right is also altering the 1995 Fiuggi [1]
[//EC783F02-28C4-4DB5-84E8-BB84EDE18682#_ftn1]“turning point” led
by the then party secretary Gianfranco Fini with the support of Silvio
Berlusconi, to constitutionalize the _Movimento Sociale
Italiano_ (the predecessor of the _Fratelli d’Italia_ party).
Instead of acceptance, as happened at Fiuggi, of the legitimacy of the
Constitution born from the Resistance, Meloni’s party aims to
transform the foundations of the Italian Republic with a narrative
minimalizing the relevance of the resistance and anti-fascism. And
implementing an institutional architecture that hinges on a reform
that would elect the President of the Council directly and (for
opportunistic alliance reasons) on _Northern League_ federalism.
The _Fratelli d’Italia_ party with 28.8% of the votes has
progressed by 2% in percentage compared to the votes received in the
2022 elections but not in absolute terms. However, there is no doubt
that the Meloni government has consolidated itself and, given that it
is among the few successful governments, it is well positioned to
become the linchpin of the political balance in Europe. Perhaps we
will see the effects in the next appointments of European
Commissioners. At the same time Fratelli also aims to federate the
extreme right witness the rapprochement with Le Pen. 

However, the party that experienced both percentage and absolute
success was the _Partito Democratico_ (PD) of the apparently
“weak” leader Elly Schlein: with 24% of the votes obtained (up
from 19% in 2022) It indicates a recovery of the party in all its
traditional areas and in particular in large cities, where it
conquered new capitals (administrative elections held together with
the European elections), and in the south, where it benefited from
the _Cinque Stelle_ (5 Star) crisis and the reaction to the
abolition of  guaranteed citizenship income by the Meloni government
and to _Northern League_ federalism . It was surprising that with an
electoral campaign based on a few watchwords, but with clear reference
to social and labor rights[2]
[//EC783F02-28C4-4DB5-84E8-BB84EDE18682#_ftn2], in just one year
Schlein managed to get left-wing voters back on the move; especially
since at the same time the mayors on the list for Europe also had
personal success[3] [//EC783F02-28C4-4DB5-84E8-BB84EDE18682#_ftn3],
representing the backbone of power within the _PD_.

The _PD_ has now become the pivot power for every centre-left
alliance, the so-called “wide field”, capable of competing with
the right-wing alliance for the government of the country. It can
contain the competition of the _Cinque Stelle_ diminished to a
modest 10% from the 17.1 in the previous European elections. 

In Europe the _Partido Socialista de Espana_ (PSE) , now part
of _Socialistas y Democratas_(S&D), also held sway in elections in
Spain and France. The LEFT LIST’S success was also moderate, in
particular of the Green-Left Alliance with 6.7%. The image of the
Italian citizen Ilaria Salis, in shackles and chains in Orban’s
prisons in Hungary, not yet indicted, favored the unexpected electoral
success of the party. Three days later Salis was released after being
elected as a new member of the European Parliament for the _Italian
Green and Left Alliance_ . The 39-year-old activist was elected
during her time under house arrest in Hungary, where she was on trial,
charged for allegedly assaulting far-right demonstrators. 

European Parliament lawmakers enjoy substantial legal immunity from
prosecution, even if the allegations relate to crimes committed prior
to their election.

More than 170,000 voters in Italy wrote Salis’ name onto the ballot
in a successful bid to bring her home from Hungary, where she had been
detained for more than a year.

In Italy it should be underlined that in contrast with the victory of
the _EPP_, two personal parties – Matteo Renzi’s _Italia Viva[4]
[//EC783F02-28C4-4DB5-84E8-BB84EDE18682#_ftn4]_, and Carlo
Calenda’s _Azione, _failed. Both were allied with
Macron’s _Renew Europe_ grouping but made no contribution to his
stability because they did not reach the 4% quorum needed to enter the
European Parliament. They were counting on the dissolution of
the _Forza Italia_ (FI) party after the death of Berlusconi, but the
voters preferred the safe use of the faithful and not very brilliant
Antonio Tajani of FI to two characters who, after an attempted
alliance, split due to power conflicts. 

The hope is now that the moderate components of the center can find
credible representation that looks unambiguously towards the left and
can complete their political offering in a political atmosphere that
appears increasingly bipolar.

[1] [//EC783F02-28C4-4DB5-84E8-BB84EDE18682#_ftnref1] Fiuggi is a
small city in the Region of Lazio where the MSI convention was held in
1995

[2] [//EC783F02-28C4-4DB5-84E8-BB84EDE18682#_ftnref2] Such as minimum
wage seen with suspicion by the trade unions, defense, refinancing of
public healthcare, aid for the poorest, increase in wages, support for
schools, etc.

[3] [//EC783F02-28C4-4DB5-84E8-BB84EDE18682#_ftnref3] De Caro, former
mayor of Bari, had half a million preferences!

[4] [//EC783F02-28C4-4DB5-84E8-BB84EDE18682#_ftnref4] In these
elections allied with Emma Bonino on the _United States of Europe_

_Nicola Benvenuti is an Italian political historian who resides in
Florence.  _

_This report on the EU election was translated from the Italian by
Peter Olney.  Any unclarity or awkward phrasing is the responsibility
of the translator. _

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