April 17, 2020
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
President Trump and coronavirus taskforce unveil federal strategy to reopen America community by community, state by state
President Donald Trump, Vice
President Mike Pence and the White House coronavirus task force have unveiled
the administration’s strategy and recommendations for reopening America in
three phases, community by community and state by state at a time of their
choosing so that America’s way of life and economy can get back to normal as
soon as possible. Hundreds of thousands of lives have already been saved and with
thousands of ventilators and other medical supplies in high-scale production,
the supply mercifully kept up with the demand, and we are past peak hospital
usage. The surge that was feared is now in the past. The President’s mitigation
strategy has worked and he, his team, all 50 states and the American people
have combined their efforts and have appeared to defeat the model’s most dire
projections and even the more modest ones. Now, with the recommendations being
issued to every state, a gradual layered approach will be implemented, based on
local situations, to reopen America piece by piece. “We are not opening all at
once, but one careful step at a time,” President Trump said. It truly is a case
study in federalism, with national leadership, guidance and resources, and
state and local execution and implementation over the next couple of months or
so, with decision-making remaining where it should with state governors.
Cartoon: Made in China
China has a lot of explaining
to do.
The country’s well-being depends upon the economy being reopened
Some might think it is
improper to talk about the economy during a pandemic, but the fact of the
matter is that a strong economy is vital to the country's well-being. A weak
economy reduces tax revenues impairing the ability of governments to deliver
vital public services. In business, downturns can push companies to cut corners
on matters of safety and the environment. A weak economy also tends to harm the
charities and religious organizations that help those in need – even as demand
for their services grows. Finally, a weak economy means more poverty along with
increased social and health problems. For these reasons, policymakers should be
listening carefully to what small business owners are saying about the need to
reopen the economy.
Highest unemployment since the Great Depression
Americans for Limited
Government President Rick Manning: ““In the past four weeks, 22 million
Americans have lost their jobs and filed for unemployment insurance through
their state governments. When added to
the 5.8 million unemployed prior to the health emergency decision to shutter
our nation’s economy, it is reasonable to assume that at least 25 million
Americans are unemployed, with millions more suffering from pay cuts and
missing paychecks due to the self-inflicted business conditions. To put 25
million unemployed into perspective, in March 2020, there were 163 million
people in the workforce, making the current unemployment rate 15%. In February of 2020, the unemployment rate
was 3.5 percent with 159 million Americans employed, the highest number in
history. Now it is reasonable to assume
that number may be as low as 130 million, the lowest total since the beginning
of the Great Recession in 2008. Twelve
years of job gains have likely been thrown away in the well intentioned and
successful effort to flatten the virus’ curve.”
President Trump and coronavirus taskforce unveil federal strategy to reopen America community by community, state by state
By Robert Romano
President Donald Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and the White House coronavirus task force have unveiled the administration’s strategy and recommendations for reopening America in three phases, community by community and state by state at a time of their choosing so that America’s way of life and economy can get back to normal as soon as possible.
First, the good news from the task force. Hundreds of thousands of lives have already been saved, when the original projections said as many as 2 million might have perished if nothing had been done. And, the daily number of cases has apparently peaked nationally, too, the President reported.
That said, states like New York, New Jersey and Michigan continue to experience great difficulty and many more deaths are to come, but with thousands of ventilators and other medical supplies in high-scale production, the supply mercifully kept up with the demand, and we are past peak hospital usage. The surge that was feared is now in the past.
The President’s mitigation strategy has worked and he, his team, all 50 states and the American people have combined their efforts and have appeared to defeat the model’s most dire projections and even the more modest ones.
Now, with the recommendations being issued to every state, a gradual layered approach will be implemented, based on local situations, to reopen America piece by piece.
“We are not opening all at once, but one careful step at a time,” President Trump said.
It truly is a case study in federalism, with national leadership, guidance and resources, and state and local execution and implementation over the next couple of months or so, with decision-making remaining where it should with state governors.
Under the guidelines, to enter phase one, first, states must demonstrate 14 days of downward trajectory of both influenza-like illnesses and COVID-19, with no rebound. As the task force noted, many states are already in a downward trajectory, and could be days away from entering phase one or already prepared to enter phase one. President Trump noted in 850 counties, or 30 percent of the nation’s counties have reported no new cases for the past week.
In phase one, schools remain closed, as do nursing homes from visitors. The elderly and those with underlying conditions continue to shelter in place. Telework continues. Non-essential travel is still blocked. It would be a lot like the period we’ve just lived through.
Next, if 14 more days of downward trajectory continues, with no resurgence, then the state would enter phase two. Schools could reopen, but nursing homes would still remain closed to visitors. Vulnerable populations would still shelter in place. Social distancing in public would continue. Telework would continue if possible. Non-essential travel restrictions would be lifted. Employers that do reopen would keep common areas closed.
After another 14 days of fewer new cases, then the state would enter phase three. Vulnerable populations could reenter the public, but should still minimize exposure to large crowds and engage in social distancing. Nursing homes could reopen to visitors, but with strict hygienic guidelines. The remaining employers can reopen.
So far, there do not appear to be any governors who are just going to go it alone and breach the guidelines. Every governor across the entire country appears to support the guidelines.
Some states will be ready for phase one right now, the President stated, with announcements expected soon. The sooner the better, since their experiences will advise and pave the way for larger states in the coming weeks. Many more will be ready by the end of April or so. And perhaps the rest by mid-May the earliest.
But that means by mid-May, a lot of states are hopefully in phase two and by June, back to being reopened. The rest, which includes all of the largest states as well as all the major metro areas, would perhaps enter phase two by June, and be reopen by mid-June the earliest.
And that’s all assuming there’s no resurgence. There’s a lot of if in that plan.
Now, the bad news. At the current rate of job losses, another 20 million or so jobs could be lost between now and then, and heaven help us if the losses continue rising after that. Effective unemployment could exceed the Great Depression’s 25 percent by mid-June if not sooner.
This phased, state-based approach was the way we closed, and that’s how we’ll reopen, but the economic consequences of the closures were always going to be catastrophic and largely unavoidable. I find it striking that not one large state with a major metropolitan area took its chances as not a single governor opposed these actions a month ago.
Look around the world, and it’s much the same story. Economies everywhere have crashed as countries across the planet have responded similarly.
This is the equivalent of the global economy being struck by an asteroid. It will take years or even a decade to recover what has been lost and will be lost for the next month and a half while this goes on, and then all the months after that. These economic outcomes we are experiencing were inevitable given these circumstances. Shouting at the asteroid not to hit us was never going to work.
So, where do we go from here?
Usually it takes about 11 months to lose all your jobs in a recession, and another 16 months to get them back, although in the Great Recession it took 25 months to lose all the jobs and another 57 months to get back the 8.3 million jobs that were lost. How long will it take to get back the 22 million jobs already lost?
Risks going forward include property values that could start plummeting — anyone looking to buy a home right now? — millions of homeowners could be about to fall behind on their payments, millions of small businesses are about to fail, and with tens of millions of fewer taxpayers, state and local governments could be about to run out of money, and so municipal debt markets are about to be tested and so forth. We’re not out of the woods yet.
We are winning the war on the virus, but the resulting recession could be the worst in our lifetimes in terms of unemployment. We are not only going to need ways to incentivize businesses to reopen but, really, to restart. While the closures were all rather similar, what governors, Congress and the President do next is probably a lot more important. Sadly, the economic impacts may have been inevitable. The real question is how do we get back?
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.
Cartoon: Made in China
By A.F. Branco
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Click here for a higher level resolution version.
The country’s well-being depends upon the economy being reopened
By Richard McCarty
Some might think it is improper to talk about the economy during a pandemic, but the fact of the matter is that a strong economy is vital to the country's well-being. A weak economy reduces tax revenues impairing the ability of governments to deliver vital public services. In business, downturns can push companies to cut corners on matters of safety and the environment. A weak economy also tends to harm the charities and religious organizations that help those in need – even as demand for their services grows. Finally, a weak economy means more poverty along with increased social and health problems. For these reasons, policymakers should be listening carefully to what small business owners are saying about the need to reopen the economy.
Myron K. is the owner of White Glove Auto in Bixby, Oklahoma, and said, “The … shutdown has extremely impacted our business… Our sales are probably about 80 percent down. I have a 6,000-sq.-ft. shop… and currently -- out of the 20 cars I can fit in the shop -- I only have two cars in there. I’ve cut hours… It’s been devastating to our business; and, honestly, I don’t think we’ll be able to survive more than probably two to three more weeks of this. So we really need to have the businesses back in action by May 1st. We really do.”
Darcy Denton H. is the owner of Tip Top K9 in Nampa, Idaho, who stated, “The effect that we have seen on our business… with all of the quarantine mandates is that we’ve had several cancellations. Obviously, our business has slowed down significantly; and in the last week, we have only received one new lead. One. One new lead in a whole week. If this were to continue for more than another couple of weeks, we will have to shut our doors. There is no way that we can operate with no leads and no money coming in the door, and once that happens we will become homeless... This will obviously also affect the people that we employ and their families as well. So not only … are all of those things going to happen to our family, but they’re gonna happen to every single member of our team and their families. So this doesn’t just affect a few people. This is going to have a catastrophic, rippling effect throughout our community. And if our community is affected that badly and this is happening all over the United States, this is going to be disastrous. So we really need to have the ability to wisely and safely operate businesses in some capacity, or things are gonna look pretty grim.”
Dave R. owns both Morning Glory Eatery and Pappagallo’s, an Italian restaurant, in Satellite Beach, Florida. He implored, “We’re barely gonna be able to survive. I don’t how we’re going to be able to make it the next few weeks. If they keep us out of business longer… we’re essentially going to lose 65 or more employees between the two businesses we have here on the beach. We… just can’t stay closed… We’re open at the [Italian] restaurant for takeout and delivery, but we’ve closed the breakfast spot down… indefinitely until we can… put the seats back in… Right now, we have three hundred and two seats we can’t use… And we just can’t survive another month… We can’t survive what we’re doing now -- much less more time.”
If you think these business owners represent just a small fraction of small businesses, then you might be interested in the findings of a recent survey. Earlier this month, the Chamber of Commerce and MetLife released a survey of small business owners and operators, and what they had to say is disturbing. Forty-three percent of respondents did not believe that their business could operate for 6 months without being forced to close permanently, and another 13 percent did not know how long they could last. Knowing that small businesses employ nearly half of all private sector workers in the country, policymakers should heed the warnings of small business owners before it is too late.
Richard McCarty is the Director of Research at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: http://dailytorch.com/2020/04/the-countrys-well-being-depends-upon-the-economy-being-reopened/
Highest unemployment since the Great Depression
April 16, 2020, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning today issued the following statement reacting to the latest initial unemployment claims:
“In the past four weeks, 22 million Americans have lost their jobs and filed for unemployment insurance through their state governments. When added to the 5.8 million unemployed prior to the health emergency decision to shutter our nation’s economy, it is reasonable to assume that at least 25 million Americans are unemployed, with millions more suffering from pay cuts and missing paychecks due to the self-inflicted business conditions.
“To put 25 million unemployed into perspective, in March 2020, there were 163 million people in the workforce, making the current unemployment rate 15%. In February of 2020, the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent with 159 million Americans employed, the highest number in history. Now it is reasonable to assume that number may be as low as 130 million, the lowest total since the beginning of the Great Recession in 2008. Twelve years of job gains have likely been thrown away in the well intentioned and successful effort to flatten the virus’ curve.
“However, those who claim that the on-going destruction of the economy and the businesses of those who provide and create jobs in America should continue unabated are dead wrong. Those states which determine that they are going to move away from the draconian shutdown responses will lead the way in our economic restoration and those which continue to be driven by fear will one-day come out of their basements and discover that Main Street is a ghost town and the jobs they hoped to return to are gone for a decade.
“While this sounds melodramatic, it is not. Small businesses across America report that they are at the breaking point, with many in areas virtually untouched by the COVID-19 virus. Saving small business is saving the free enterprise system, and saving the free enterprise system is saving our nation from the tyranny of socialism.
“Thank goodness for President Donald Trump, Texas Governor Greg Abbott, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem and reportedly Governors in 20 other states who are working toward re-opening their economies this week. It is time for a much more targeted, intelligent response to the China-originated COVID-19 virus, one which minimizes the loss of life and accelerates economic restoration.”
To view online: https://getliberty.org/2020/04/highest-unemployment-since-the-great-depression/
