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Good morning, and happy Thursday!

Today's top 3: Recent data provide insight into union voters moving toward the GOP, how China’s debt problem is hurting its long-term growth, and how family structure can make the difference between prison and college for young men.

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1. The Disunited Union Vote
Topline: Last week, the New York Times reported that Teamsters General President Sean O’Brien requested speaking slots at both party conventions <[link removed]>—an unusual ask that comes amid a political shift within unions. AEI’s Daniel Cox highlights <[link removed]> this realignment as part of a broader shift among union workers toward the GOP.

Trend lines: In the most recent presidential election, white Americans in union households were almost equally likely to identify as
Republican as Democrat—33% and 34%, respectively. This marks the first time in over 60 years when equal numbers of these individuals identified with each party, which carries significant implications for the upcoming November elections.
2. China’s Big Debt Problem
Topline: Amid ongoing trade tensions <[link removed]> between the US and China, AEI’s Derek Scissors examines <[link removed]> how debt affects the
two countries’ long-term economic competition. Despite both nations’ willingness to increase debt, China’s massive debt accumulation will burden its economy and limit growth—making it “almost impossible for China to win the economic competition” against the US. How much debt? From 2008 to 2023, China’s outstanding credit to the nonfinancial sector rose by 148 points to exceed 283% of GDP. In contrast, the US saw an increase of less than 15 points, with outstanding credit reaching 256% of GDP.
  




“The PRC has dug itself a debt hole faster than the US, and possibly anyone else, ever has.” 
—Derek Scissors
3. The Family-to-Prison-or-College Pipeline
Topline: AEI’s Brad Wilcox and coauthors analyzed <[link removed]> two nationally representative surveys and found that young men from intact families are significantly more likely to graduate from college than to end up in prison. Conversely, both studies showed that young men from non-intact families (stepfamilies, single-parent households, or adoptive families) are more likely to go to prison than to graduate from college.
  




“Statistics like these are telling <[link removed]>. They tell us that not only are our public discussions about what ails our young men off the mark, but also . . . a father and mother’s ‘residency’ seems to matter.” 
—Brad Wilcox
Last but Not Least . . .
Not the World That the Oil Energy Doomers Promised <[link removed]>
What Politicians Should Say About Productivity Growth <[link removed]>
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