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CRITICAL STATE
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Your weekly foreign policy fix.
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If you read just one thing …
read about what will happen when China’s population grows old!
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China’s transformation — that is, its domestic transformation and the change to the role it plays in the world — happened in no small part because of “youthful urbanization.” But the young grow old, and China’s birth rate “has become a national crisis.” What happens next?
That is the question before Shanghai-based writer and editor Jacob Dreyer in his new piece for Noema, “China in 2035.”
Dreyer draws a parallel to Japan, which, at one point, “imagined in its future gangs, crime, megacities and villains — just watch the 1988 anime movie ‘Akira,’ a dystopian account of a biker gang set in an imagined 2019 ‘Neo-Tokyo’ plagued by corruption and terrorism. And then, the boom ended. Tokyo never became neo; instead, it has become one of the most affordable and livable major metropolises in the world.”
Dreyer wonders why experts are warning China of “Japanification” when Japan, the country, “is a terrific place.”
“Over several days of travel across Japan earlier this year, I tried to understand why becoming more like Japan would be a bad thing for China,” he writes. What he comes to realize is that many urban Chinese “yearn” for the stasis of Japan.
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May It Please the Court
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In Haaretz, Israeli human rights lawyer Michael Sfard writes on how Israel’s High Court had, for decades, shielded the country from international law — and why it can’t anymore.
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For decades, Sfard writes, “we could plunder the lands of our occupied subjects and settle on them, humiliate them at checkpoints and in the fields, detain thousands without trial … while our ‘legal Iron Dome’ — topped by our crowning glory, the High Court of Justice — saved us from the wicked attempts to try our actions in foreign courts.” He adds that “we were sure that the prestige of the Israeli justice system obviated interference from international counterparts, only to discover that the gentile judges were at the gates.”
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But while Sfard acknowledges that the judges can “be proud” of some decisions protecting, for example, the rights of women and freedom of expression, they are also responsible for “Rulings that authorized [the] harming of the weakest, who live under Israeli rule but have no rights and no influence on their future; who are not represented by any institution within the entity that governs them.” And the arrest warrants show that the international legal community knows it, and “no longer considers the Attorney General's Office, the Israel Police, the military prosecutor and the Supreme Court as law enforcement institutions that meet international standards, at least in regard to the Palestinians.”
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Take This Waltz
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In a piece jointly published by The Dial and Foreign Policy, Jessi Jezewska Stevens offers a dispatch from the ball season in Vienna.
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“The Viennese ball season has been celebrated almost continually since 1814, breaking only for the two world wars and recent pandemic. In a country of only 9 million people, it draws more than 500,000 ordinary people out to waltz.” Each winter carnival season, the city hosts over 400 formal balls, with various professions hosting their own.
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Stevens’s real question is about the relationship between past and present: “The frenzy of the waltz — still performed in the same ballrooms as in the imperial era — echoes a persistent anxiety for Europe’s over-touristed, economically uneasy, and politically pessimistic capitals: On a continent that relishes golden-era traditions yet finds itself slipping in the geopolitical world order, how do you face the future without romanticizing the past?” “Veteran ball journalists” made sure Stevens knew that the balls were meant to be frivolous and fun, not political. Stevens counters, “I don’t disagree. But I also believe that a society’s attitude toward tradition shapes its expectations for the future — and how much that future should resemble the past.”
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Girl Talk?
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To be a woman in politics is to be a woman in a field traditionally dominated by men. But is it more effective to try to make people forget that you’re different, or to heighten the contradictions?
That’s the subject before authors Bruno Castanho Silva, Danielle Pullan, and Jens Wäckerle in their new paper, “Blending in or standing out? Gendered political communication in 24 democracies,” out now in the American Journal of Political Science. The authors set out to consider “how these contradictory incentives” — namely, trying to fit in or stand out among the men — “influence female Members of Parliament (MPs) in 24 democracies between 1987 and 2022, applying machine learning to 6.8 million parliamentary speeches to measure how feminine is their speaking style.”
The authors looked at speech, specifically, because it’s present across politics and because it’s an expression: with language, politicians are telling their peers and would-be voters how they want to be seen.
They looked at countries across Europe, North America, and Oceania. They used a machine learning approach to determine “how feminine or masculine the discourse of each MP is, based on their speeches, which allows us to see if and how female MPs change their speaking style, in relation to its genderedness, as their parliamentary careers progress.”
The authors felt that this was an improvement on previous methods, which relied on deductive ideas about what constitutes masculinity and femininity, explaining, “Rather than applying a set criteria of what constitutes masculinity and femininity in political debate, we observe these concepts and understand them as the expressions of men and women respectively.” To put it another way, this study was based on data about what men and women say and do, not the authors’ own ideas about what it masculine or feminine.
The authors found that, the longer women stay in office, the more they adapt a “masculine” style. Part of this was because, the longer they were in office, the likelier they were to speak on subjects traditionally considered “masculine,” like defense. But it was also the case that much of the change simply came from speaking in a more “masculine” way over time, which is to say that it held across speech subjects. Interestingly, the effect was most clear on women in socially progressive political parties, while women in more conservative parties kept a “feminine” speaking tone, suggesting to the authors that gender norms are held onto more dearly in parties to the right of center.
The authors acknowledge that they have not factored intersectionality into their analysis, and that the literature that exists so far suggests that the theories that they considered may apply differently to different groups of women depending on what other identities they hold. They also suggest that future research considers not only time spent in office, but power acquired, and whether being in more “powerful” positions leads women to adopt still more “masculine” speech.
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Lucila Del Aguila Llausas asked whether Mexico’s newly elected next president, Claudia Sheinbaum, can reset relations with the United States. One of her priorities is to improve security cooperation, and that won’t be possible without her northern neighbor. But it’s up to Washington, too: “ [T]he United States will need to decide whether to turn a blind eye to antidemocratic tendencies taking hold in Mexico and focus on narrow parochial issues in a kind of Faustian bargain or to take the relationship as a whole package.” Sheinbaum will need to not only build on pre-existing political capital, but innovate, too.
Rachel A. George warned that negotiations will “flounder” if they do not involve women. “Approaching the 25th anniversary of the Women, Peace and Security agenda at the United Nations, the international community can do better to bring the agenda into the fore of prominent peace attempts,” wrote George. George noted that women are underrepresented in political decision-making processes in conflicts today in places like Sudan and Yemen, even though we know that historians believe womens’ participation in peace processes in places like Northern Ireland were “critical factors enhancing peace outcomes.”
Manuel Rueda looked at how Colombia and its neighbors are reacting to Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. Rueda explained the ebb and flow of sentiment since Hamas’s attack on Oct. 7 of last year: “Latin American nations have traditionally sided with the Palestinian cause. But last year, many countries in the region condemned the Hamas attack on Israel that led to the current war in Gaza. Since then — as thousands of civilians perish in Israeli bombings and the carnage shows up on social media — many people are now actively siding with the Palestinians.” Colombia in particular broke off diplomatic ties and has said it is stopping coal exports — though some worry that, by doing so, Colombia is
hurting its own ability to defend itself.
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Critical State is written by Emily Tamkin with Inkstick Media.
The World is a weekday public radio show and podcast on global issues, news and insights from PRX and GBH.
With an online magazine and podcast featuring a diversity of expert voices, Inkstick Media is “foreign policy for the rest of us.”
Critical State is made possible in part by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
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