It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Annabelle Gordon/CNP/Sipa USA

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

THREE PRIMARY RACES TO WATCH
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

Nevermind that we are just one month away from the first presidential convention ([link removed]) of the year, the fight for Congress is happening now.

Primary season is long and layered for the 435 seats in the House of Representatives. And today, we have three races we think you may want to watch.

Trump v. the Freedom Caucus chair

The Old Dominion is witness to a big-headline battle within the Republican Party: the chairman of the House Freedom Caucus is fighting for his political life against an opponent endorsed by former President Donald Trump.

There is much to say about this Virginia race in the area that includes Charlottesville, but above all, it is a test of who has power, and for Trump, of his absolute insistence on loyalty and determination to get revenge.

Rep. Bob Good, who chairs the Freedom Caucus and represents the central 5th Congressional District, endorsed Ron DeSantis ([link removed]) in the presidential race. Trump has not forgotten this and endorsed Good’s challenger John McGuire ([link removed]) . Someone else with a long memory — former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy — has also been working to end Good’s career, as retribution for Good’s role in ending his own. ([link removed])

The race has some rare contours. Good is still stressing his loyalty to Trump, despite the endorsement of his opponent. In response, Trump has sent a cease-and-desist letter, ([link removed]) demanding that Good stop using Trump’s name and any Trump-related symbols.

Virginia is for scramblers

Two other districts in Virginia stand out simply for the size of the candidate fields scrambling to make it out of the primary in the Washington, D.C., exurbs and suburbs.

The retirements of Democratic Reps. Abigail Spanberger, leaving Virginia’s 7th Congressional District to run for governor, and Jennifer Wexton, ending her career in the 10th for health reasons ([link removed]) , have left open two highly coveted seats.

In the 7th District ([link removed]) , six Republicans and seven Democrats are on the ballot to replace Spanberger. They include Democrat Eugene Vindman, twin brother of Alexander Vindman, an Army officer who testified during the first Trump impeachment trial ([link removed]) in 2019.

Among the Republicans are two military veterans, whom The Washington Post described as looking “similar on paper ([link removed]) ” (the photos bear a likeness too), but who are contrasted in at least one way. One of them, Cameron Hamilton, has pledged to join the House Freedom Caucus ([link removed]) , while Derrick Anderson has the endorsement of Rep. Steve Scalise ([link removed]) , the second-highest ranking House Republican.

In the 10th District, the list of names on the ballot is even longer, with 12 Democrats and four Republicans vying for the chance to run in November. The Democratic race has become particularly heated and expensive. The New York Times has called it a “brawl ([link removed]) ,” with candidates facing accusations of sexual harassment, resume padding as well as sharp pushback over their approaches to Israel.

The bruising has made some wonder if Democrats have already hurt their chances to keep a key swing district in November. The winners on both sides tonight will need to immediately ramp up for (another) tough race.

The long shot

In Oklahoma, one of the highest-ranking Republicans in the House faces a well-funded, upstart challenge.

Rep. Tom Cole is the Appropriations chair ([link removed]) , one of the most senior members of the House. A member of the Chickasaw Nation, he is also the longest-serving Native American in House history. But Cole finds himself on the ballot against Paul Bondar, a self-funded Republican challenger ([link removed]) who accuses Cole of not being a true conservative and has said he would spend “whatever it takes” to win.

Cole has the help of some big-spending outside groups and a literal Trump card: The former president has endorsed him.

Still, it is worth watching this one to see how an established Republican in bright red territory does against an attack from the right — but with Trump’s backing.

The meaning of it all

Each race is unique.

And today, we have two strong themes: how much Trump determines the fate of Republicans down the ballot and how Democrats handle heated, divisive races of their own.
More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: Biden announces new rules ([link removed]) to help undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens and ‘Dreamers.’
* One Big Question: What would these protections do? PBS News’ Laura Barrón-López walks through how President Joe Biden’s executive action would work ([link removed]) .
* A Closer Look: Why the surgeon general is calling for warning labels ([link removed]) on social media platforms.
* Perspectives: U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan discusses the prospects ([link removed]) of the latest Gaza cease-fire proposal.

HOW DO AMERICANS FEEL ABOUT BIDEN AND TRUMP RIGHT NOW?

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Photo by Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

By Laura Santhanam, @LauraSanthanam ([link removed])
Health Reporter & Coordinating Producer for Polling

As the season of big party conventions and presidential debates looms, a majority of Americans are not satisfied ([link removed]) with either of the top two presidential candidates, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll.

Fifty-five percent of U.S. adults said they were not satisfied with the choice between major party candidates President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.

“This is not a happy electorate,” said Lee Miringoff, who directs the Marist Poll, “but it is one that is starting to deal with the realities that these two are the choices they’re going to have to pick from.”

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Image by Jenna Cohen/PBS News

If November’s election were held today, Biden and Trump would be evenly matched, according to this latest poll ([link removed]) , with 49 percent of U.S. registered voters saying they would vote for Biden and another 49 percent saying they would support Trump. Half of independent registered voters said they supported Biden, giving the current president a slight 2 percentage-point edge, but one that falls within the margin of error.

That lack of enthusiasm for Trump or Biden may further help explain why so many people feel they have already made up their minds about how to cast their vote, Miringoff said. As in earlier polls, two-thirds of U.S. registered voters said they know who they would vote for, and nothing can change their mind ([link removed]) .

But in a tight race where candidates are fighting for support along the margins, the question of who gets elected in November belongs to that remaining third of the country.

WE’D LIKE TO HEAR FROM YOU!

Are you unhappy with the choices in this year’s presidential election? If so, help us guide our coverage. Fill out our survey ([link removed]) . (It is fewer than 10 questions.)

We are looking to talk with voters who are unhappy with their choices on the 2024 presidential ballot, including those who are uncertain about how or whether they will vote.
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#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Matt Loffman, @mattloff ([link removed])
Politics Producer

Rep. Bob Good is facing a tough reelection in Virginia on Tuesday.

If state Del. John McGuire wins the Republican nomination in the 5th Congressional District, Good will be the first incumbent member of Congress ousted in a primary this year.

Our question: How many members of Congress lost their primary races in the 2022 midterm elections? (Hint: Redistricting after the 2020 census meant in several districts two incumbents were pitted against each other in primary races.)

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Prosecutors in the Hunter Biden trial played audio from a particular piece of media to help make the case that the president’s son lied on a federal firearms form. What was it?

The answer: Hunter’s own memoir ([link removed]) . In “Beautiful Things,” Hunter wrote how he’d score drugs as well as cook his own cocaine. Federal prosecutors played more than an hour of the audio version ([link removed]) of the book, which Hunter himself narrated, to try to convince jurors that Hunter knowingly made false statements on a form when purchasing a firearm in 2018.

Congratulations to our winners: Dave Pasley and Richard Morris!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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