Daily News Brief

June 17, 2024

Top of the Agenda

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dissolved a war cabinet that had been formed on October 11, his office told The Times of Israel, leaving Netanyahu’s final decisions about the war against Hamas to a smaller number of advisors. After two more moderate members of the war cabinet left last week, far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir demanded that he be added to the forum. Israel still has a separate, broader security cabinet that Netanyahu can consult.

The dissolution came as Israel’s military announced yesterday that it will pause operations on a road in the southern Gaza Strip for eleven hours each day to allow in more aid. Separately, a spokesperson for Israel’s military warned yesterday of “a wider escalation” of conflict with Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. White House envoy Amos Hochstein is visiting Israel today in an effort to contain those tensions. (Times of Israel, NYT, Haaretz)

Analysis

“[In the U.S. war in Iraq,] sustaining the level of political support required to carry out strategies such as the surge forced policymakers to lay out a clear desired end-state for their operations. Similarly, unity in Israel will depend on the government’s ability to articulate a realistic vision for Gaza’s future,” KKR’s David Petraeus, Harvard University’s Meghan L. O’Sullivan, and the Center for New American Security’s Richard Fontaine write for Foreign Affairs. 

“Without real progress towards a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, it will be difficult to reach an agreement with Hezbollah, as the Lebanese terror organization has made it clear that it will continue to fight Israel as long as the war in Gaza continues,” Haaretz’s Amir Tibon writes.

Read the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

Pacific Rim

The United States is as many as fifteen years behind China when it comes to advanced nuclear energy, the Washington-based Information Technology and Innovation Foundation said in a report today. Its author said the United States “can certainly catch up technologically” if it chooses to. Meanwhile, a report released yesterday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said China is significantly expanding its nuclear weapons capabilities. Its nuclear warhead stockpile grew to 500 in January, up from 410 last year; comparatively, the United States had 5,044 warheads in January, while Russia had 5,580, the report said. (Reuters, WaPo)

For The Water’s Edge blog, CFR expert James M. Lindsay discusses whether the United States is looking at a new nuclear arms race.

Australia/China: China will offer Australians visa-free travel, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said on a visit to Canberra. The two countries will “continue the process of stabilizing the relationship,” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said. Bilateral relations chilled under Albanese’s predecessor, Scott Morrison. Trade between Australia and China reached a record $145 billion last year after China lifted tariffs and sanctions. (ABC, FT)

South and Central Asia

The plan would see Afghan asylum seekers deported to Uzbekistan rather than Afghanistan, as Germany does not have relations with the Taliban. In return, Uzbekistan reportedly seeks rules that would allow some skilled workers to move to Germany. German officials traveled to Uzbekistan to discuss the plan late last month, media reported. German authorities did not comment on the reports. (Bloomberg)

India: New Delhi’s lieutenant governor granted permission to prosecute author Arundhati Roy over comments she made about the disputed region of Kashmir at a 2010 event. Roy’s lawyer said the case “is political in nature” and that her comments did not lead to violence or unlawful activity. (PTI, WaPo)

Middle East and North Africa

Fourteen Jordanian pilgrims died “after suffering sun stroke due to the extreme heat wave,” Jordan’s foreign ministry said. Five Iranian pilgrims also died, the chief of Iran’s Red Crescent Society said, without specifying the cause of death. (AFP)

Sub-Saharan Africa

The uMkhonto weSizwe party will take its seats in the legislature even as it continues to contest the results of last month’s elections, former President Jacob Zuma said. A newly-formed opposition caucus, which also includes the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters and the center-left United Democratic Movement, now controls almost a third of parliamentary seats. (TimesLIVE, BBC)

Zimbabwe: Police detained opposition leader Jameson Timba and eighty others on Sunday for what authorities called an unauthorized political meeting, their lawyer said today. A spokesperson for Timba’s Citizens Coalition for Change party said the arrests showed “democratic regression.” (Reuters)

Europe

At a weekend summit in Switzerland, eighty countries signed a declaration saying respect for Ukraine’s territorial integrity should serve as the basis for peace with Russia. Twelve countries that attended the summit did not sign, including Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates. On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin called on Ukraine to withdraw from the four regions partially occupied by Russia in order for a cease-fire to occur; Western leaders denounced his position. (FT, BBC)

In this report for CFR’s Center for Preventive Action, Andrea Kendall-Taylor discusses how to respond to Europe’s new era of instability.

China/Europe: China launched an anti-dumping probe into some pork imports from European Union (EU) countries following last week’s announcement of new EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. The probe is due to last no more than a year. The EU accounted for more than half of Chinese pork imports between 2020 and 2023, China’s commerce ministry said. (SCMP) 

Americas

Authorities will prosecute suspected drug traffickers as terrorists and build a twenty thousand-person “mega-prison” as part of new anti-crime measures, President Xiomara Castro said early Saturday. The measures echo security policies carried out in neighboring El Salvador, where crime fell following a campaign of mass arrests. Human rights groups said Salvadorans’ civil liberties were violated in the process. (AP)

For The President’s Inbox podcast, CFR expert Will Freeman discusses Latin America’s crime surge. 

Haiti: The government announced plans to replace the head of its national police with Rameau Normil, who formerly held the post. Police officers reported late pay, insufficient training, and equipment shortages under outgoing leader Frantz Elbe, according to a survey by the Haitian National Human Rights Defense Network. (Reuters)

United States

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will introduce a vote to restore a ban on bump stocks, he said yesterday. The Supreme Court struck down a similar ban on Friday. Bump stocks are devices that increase the rate of fire of semiautomatic weapons. (CBS)

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