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Dear Jack,

Mississippi’s Department of Education was quick to trumpet an improvement in education standards in our state this week. According to a gushing press release they put out, Mississippi has risen up the national education rankings from 48^th to 30^th over the past decade.

“Great!” you might think. “It’s wonderful to see an improvement in education standards in Mississippi”.

But has there really been an improvement?

The Department of Education pronouncement was based on a recently released report from the Annie E. Casey Foundation, which itself used data from the US Department of Education’s National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP). The Annie E. Casey report (page 39) based its claims on two metrics in particular; 4^th grade proficiency in reading and 8^th grade proficiency in math.

I took a closer look at the NAEP data, and it is clear that any improvements in Mississippi’s education ranking owe more to a decline in standards in other states, rather than to any substantive improvements in our own.

THE TRUTH ABOUT 4^TH GRADE READING SCORES

Between 2015 and 2022, Mississippi went from 46th for 4th grade reading to 18th. Progress!

The average 4^th grade NAEP score in reading, however, only changed from 214 to 217.

In other words, the improvement in ranking in 4^th grade reading scores since 2015 is almost entirely a reflection of the fact that standards fell in other states.

Here is a graph that shows the percentage of 4^th grade students in Mississippi and America that are at or above proficiency in reading.
4th grade reading - percentage at or above proficient
What do you notice?

There clearly has been an improvement in the percentage of 4^th graders proficient in reading in Mississippi – but it happened before 2019. It almost certainly reflects the enactment of a package of literacy laws in 2013, which shifted the way Mississippians teach reading towards phonics, rather than any change in policies since.

There has not been progress in the past five years, and any change in our ranking reflects the fact that other states have just done worse than we have.

THE TRUTH ABOUT 8^TH GRADE MATH SCORES

In 2022, Mississippi ranked 44^th in 8^th grade NAEP math, compared to 46^th in 2015. Not only was there little relative improvement, the state’s average NAEP 8^th grade math score actually fell from 271 in 2015 to 266 in 2022.

Here’s a graph that shows the percentage of 8^th grade students in Mississippi and America that are at or above proficiency in math.
8th grade math - percentage at or above proficient
What do you notice?

There has been an improvement, but most of that progress was made before 2013. Over the past decade the dark blue bars on the chart have flatlined.

It is profoundly misleading to present evidence of Mississippi’s relative improvement as evidence of any kind of absolute rise in standards.

FACTS, NOT PROPAGANDA

Here are some facts that the Department of Education could have included in their press release, but didn’t:

* 82 percent of 8^th grade kids in Mississippi were not proficient math in 2022.
* 69 percent of 4^th grade kids in Mississippi were not proficient in reading in 2022
* Almost 4 in 10 fourth graders in 2022 did not even reach the basic reading standard.

Instead of propaganda, the Department of Education could take a look at its own data which shows that almost one in four Mississippi students — 108,000 children — are chronically absent from school.

The rate of chronic absenteeism has in fact skyrocketed from 70,275 in 2016-17 to 108,310 in 2022-23.

“So what?” you might say. “Of course, officials are going to present what they do in the most positive light”.

It matters deeply because until we have an honest conversation about the true state of education in our state, we aren’t going to see the changes Mississippi desperately needs.
The Governors of Alabama, Arkansas and Louisiana - they've all successfully championed universal school choice.
Mississippi is now surrounded on three sides by states that have embraced universal school choice. In Arkansas, Alabama and Louisiana, the money will follow the child. Families in those states will get control over their child’s share of state education funds.

Change only came about because there was a recognition of reality, and realization that reform was urgent and essential.

The reason there has been so little progress towards school choice in our state is because too many policy makers believe our education system is doing better than it actually is.
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Warm regards,

Douglas Carswell
President & CEO

PS. Did you know that over 80,000 individuals subscribe to receive this email? Thanks for being one of them!

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