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The spring panic attending Russian advances toward Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city [ [link removed] ], has ebbed with minor ground gains, but reportedly at great cost [ [link removed] ]. Russia’s push was alarming because it occurred in a previously “quiet” sector and raised the possibility that Ukrainian defenses in the area could crumble. This has not happened.
Russia’s effort was also notable for apparently shaking loose U.S. [ [link removed] ] and German restrictions [ [link removed] ] on how the long-range weapons they’ve supplied to Ukraine may be used. The defenders near Kharkiv were frustrated to watch enemy forces assembling in staging areas inside Russia proper, territory off-limits to Ukrainian strikes with the most advanced Western weapons, such as guided artillery rockets.
As we’ve written previously [ [link removed] ], the only way Ukraine has any chance at all of prevailing in this war is to be able to hit Russian infrastructure, logistics and units inside Russia itself. Long-range strike weapons and the pending introduction of F-16 fighter-bombers could make this possible.
Nevertheless, this hope is a distant one because all of Ukraine is already under the knife. Russian strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, logistics and units are only limited by Russia’s supply of missiles and ammunition. Ukraine may be able to raise the cost of Russian operations and disrupt their tempo, but under current conditions, it cannot achieve outright victory.
Thus, the Gordian knot [ [link removed] ] of the Russia-Ukraine War entangles Europe in a conflict without apparent end. No Alexander will solve the puzzle at a stroke. The unpleasant options of fighting on or negotiating persist, and the ramifications of these choices are yet to be untangled.
Time Is on Putin’s Side … Or Is It?
In the U.S., Republican efforts to tie a $60 billion package of military aid to Ukraine to provisions on border security and stemming the flood of illegal migration hampered resupply for months. Ukraine’s stocks of artillery shells, air-defense missiles and guided rockets dwindled and arguably enabled Russian forces to gain advantages [ [link removed] ].
Without a doubt, Ukraine is dependent on the West for weapons and is thus subject to the vagaries of partisan political wrangling beyond its borders. Moreover, there is a strong current of opposition in both the United States and Europe to resupplying Ukraine with needed military aid. Some of this comes down to pragmatic arguments over money and munitions that are needed for other priorities, such as China. Some is philosophical and rings with a sort of neo-isolationist argument that Ukraine is not “our problem.” Ukraine backers charge that these positions equate with support for Vladimir Putin.
While placating Putin may not be the intent of those opposed to supplying Ukraine, the Russian president must be pinning some hope on the possibility of political changes in the West. Elections in Europe [ [link removed] ] and the United States this year could result in a rising populist right turning inward to focus on immigration and domestic economics, and, in turn, slowing the flow of weapons into Ukraine. This would be the death knell for Ukrainian resistance.
The clock is already ticking, and Putin hears it. In addition to weapons, Ukraine faces an acute shortage of people to draft into its military. While Western countries are trying not to reveal specifics of this critical information to Russia, the problem is well known [ [link removed] ] and mounting. It is enough to compare the population of both countries: Russia has roughly 145 million [ [link removed] ] people, and Ukraine less than 38 million [ [link removed] ]. It’s not difficult to figure out who will run out of recruits first.
On the other hand, not all the numbers are going Russia’s way. While Russia has managed to put itself on a war footing, resisting Western economic and technology sanctions, its weapons stock is steadily declining. According to Ukraine’s defense intelligence chief, Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the Russian “flow of weapons will dry up” by 2026 [ [link removed] ]. Current production replaces only about 10%-20% of the losses [ [link removed] ] annually. At the current rate, then, Russia will be out of [ [link removed] ] armored vehicles, artillery and transportation vehicles by the beginning of 2026. At present, losses are being covered in part by taking older equipment out of storage, overhauling it and issuing it to forces in the field. However, the pool of stored vehicles is estimated to be empty by the end of 2025.
Will Russia sustain its equipment pipeline long enough for Western nations to tire of supplying Ukraine? Putin certainly hopes so and has no incentive to stop fighting in the near term.
Give Peace a Chance?
The Institute for the Study of War, an American think tank, provided a very realistic assessment [ [link removed] ] of Russia’s approach to negotiations:
Western media continues to report that Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in a negotiated ceasefire in Ukraine, although Kremlin rhetoric and Russian military actions illustrate that Putin remains uninterested in meaningful negotiations and any settlement that would prevent him from pursuing the destruction of an independent Ukrainian state. … Military operations suggest that the Kremlin is more interested in achieving its long-term goal of maximalist victory in Ukraine than in any settlement that would immediately freeze the front line where it is currently located.
Putin has declined to take part in the Summit on Peace in Ukraine [ [link removed] ] scheduled for later this month in Switzerland, and he continues to suggest that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has lost his legitimacy. The consequence of not recognizing Zelenskyy is that no agreement can be reached with him, and any such agreement might be challenged in the future as not valid. This way, Russia can simultaneously claim that it wants to negotiate and decline negotiations with the present Ukrainian authorities.
Therefore, there is no prospect for a negotiated peace. Humanitarians may point at the essential stalemate of a war of attrition that continues to consume lives and wreck societies, and say negotiations offer the only way forward. This is folly. Putin has only to wait for political winds to shift in the West and hope his war supplies hold out until they do. If they don’t, he may consider making a scorpion’s promise at that time.
Will Russia Continue the War Beyond Ukraine?
Russia has passed a certain point of no return with regard to war policy. The country has converted its economy to focus on war and has no alternative but to proceed on a war footing until political conditions in the world change to its advantage. According to Europe’s Centre for Economic Policy Research [ [link removed] ], production in Russia’s war-related industries is up some 60% in spring 2024 compared to autumn 2022, “when it started to grow at breakneck speed. At the same time, production in other sectors of manufacturing is flat.”
Some analysts say Russia’s switch to a war economy goes beyond what is needed to defeat Ukraine. Poland’s top general, Wiesław Kukuła, has said that Russia’s buildup is in preparation for an eventual conflict with NATO [ [link removed] ]. It is not clear how this fits with previously cited Ukrainian estimates that Russia will run out of gear by 2026.
Nevertheless, Russia is not running out of bellicosity. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, has officially labeled the United States an “enemy nation.” [ [link removed] ] Retired Russian Navy Captain Konstantin Sivkov suggested that Poland be destroyed with nuclear weapons, to “make the West think.” [ [link removed] ] Not to be outdone, Russian parliament member Lt. Gen. (ret.) Andrey Gurulev said the Netherlands should be destroyed with nuclear weapons [ [link removed] ], presumably to make the West really think.
Of course, Russia has no intention of using nuclear weapons: This is just propaganda intended to build hatred of the West and to scare Western countries. But in the long term, Russia almost assuredly is preparing for conventional war with NATO, although not all at once. Rather, Russia hopes to destroy Western unity and engage European countries one by one.
Is this possible? Maybe: Russia could, for example, work to destabilize a future victim covertly to increase internal tensions and civil strife. Russia and its ally Belarus are known to use migration [ [link removed] ] and other hot-button issues as leverage against Western countries. Who is going to aid the unstable country with a strongly divided society, torn apart by riots and strikes? At the same time, effective Russian information warfare activities use the phrase “not our war” to ensnare Western pacifists and populists with isolationist messages.
Europe Must Wake Up
The only way for the West to stop Russia is to show strong resolve and a will to resist. Europe must increase the pace of war preparations by building up military forces and increasing defense industry output. America under any leadership is not going to be able to sustain the defense of Ukraine—or of Europe itself—without a European willingness to put itself on a war footing, or at least something approaching one.
Fortunately, there is a glimmer of progress. According to NATO [ [link removed] ], in 2023 there was a real increase of 11% in defense spending across the European allies and Canada, which the alliance’s secretary general called an “unprecedented rise.” Eighteen NATO nations are expected to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense in 2024—a six-fold increase from a decade ago, when only three nations met that target. Truth be told, this is still rather pathetic for a European civilization with pretentions of standing on its own as a world power.
In building up its military forces, Europe must gain a clear advantage over Russia, to “make the Kremlin think” about facing certain defeat in a conventional war. It worked during the Cold War, and it will work again. The problem is that people of Europe have to accept the huge increase in defense spending at the cost of a decrease in social spending. Russia has chosen this road. Is Europe ready for it?
A Europe that shoulders its defense burdens and takes the lead on supplying a friendly neighbor at war with Russia is a partner that no U.S. administration will turn its back on. Putin is counting on the West’s frustration with the Gordian knot of Ukraine to give him the time he thinks he needs to prevail. The secret of the knot is to keep at it, with weapons and money and technology, until Putin’s ambitions are strangled.

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