Daily News Brief

June 10, 2024

Top of the Agenda

French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved (FT) the country’s lower legislative chamber yesterday following European Parliament elections that saw the far-right National Rally party secure twice as many votes as his centrist alliance. However, preliminary results suggest that centrist parties maintained their dominance across the European Union (EU) more broadly. The environmentalist Green party shrank in size. Far-right parties are expected to hold nearly a quarter of seats, up from one-fifth after the last election in 2019.

The European Parliament chooses the members of the European Commission and negotiates EU law together with member states. The new body will affect (Reuters) policy spanning issues such as trade and climate change; it is due to negotiate a new, legally binding target to cut emissions by 2040. Macron, for his part, called (FT) for French voters to create an alliance against the far right, but mainstream political parties did not immediately embrace his appeal. Macron’s call for elections is the first time in nearly three decades a president has cut short the assembly’s term. 

Analysis

“Macron has taken an enormous gamble—with his own reputation & legacy, as well as on the future of France,” Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman posts. “Macron's hope is that the arguments which failed in the EU election campaign—support for Ukraine against Russia; the survival of EU; the confused & incoherent economic and EU policies of [National Rally’s Marine] Le Pen, etc.—will cut through to voters when their direct interests are at risk.”

“While the parliament is often considered the weakest of the EU’s three main institutions, significant changes to its makeup will impact what is included in EU policies and what legislation ultimately gets passed. The outgoing parliament, led by a [centrist] coalition… produced the historic European Green Deal, which lays out the goal of becoming climate neutral by 2050, and it has steered European efforts to support Ukraine against Russian aggression,” CFR expert Matthias Matthijs and CFR’s Caroline Kapp write in this article.

This Backgrounder by CFR’s James McBride discusses how the European Union works.

Middle East and North Africa

Centrist Benny Gantz announced (Times of Israel) his party’s departure from Israel’s governing coalition yesterday. He cited the lack of a postwar governance plan for the Gaza Strip, called for early elections, and endorsed a cease-fire and hostage release deal supported by the United States. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Cairo (AFP) to discuss the proposed deal. Gantz’s announcement was delayed by one day due to an Israeli military operation that freed four hostages (AP) in Gaza. At least 274 Palestinians were killed during the raid, Gaza’s health ministry said. 

For Foreign Policy, CFR expert Steven A. Cook writes that Washington’s Israel policy should update its assumptions.

Iran: The Guardian Council approved (AP) five hardline candidates and one reformist candidate for competition in a June 28 presidential election following the helicopter crash that killed President Ebrahim Raisi. 

This Media Briefing looks at Iran’s political landscape in the aftermath of Raisi’s death.

Pacific Rim

Authorities said Truong Huy San posted (NYT) articles that “infringed on the interests of the state.” He had criticized the concentration of power in Vietnam shortly before his arrest. Press freedom watchdogs called for his release; human rights nonprofit the 88 Project called his arrest “an alarming attack on freedom of the press.”  

South Korea/North Korea: South Korea will conduct propaganda broadcasts (Yonhap) aimed across its border with North Korea for the first time since 2016, Seoul’s presidential office said yesterday. South Korea’s military reported around 330 trash-carrying balloons launched by North Korea since Saturday.

South and Central Asia

Figures including Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Home Minister Amit Shah will again serve (Bloomberg) in Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet. The group of thirty cabinet ministers includes five politicians from Modi’s coalition partners. Modi’s party is sharing power with them as it does not hold a parliamentary majority.

Pakistan: An explosive device killed seven soldiers (Reuters) traveling in a vehicle near northwestern Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan, the army said. No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces opened fire (Reuters) inside the hospital and put it out of service, Doctors Without Borders (MSF) said. The city of Al-Fashir has become the latest front in Sudan’s civil war. The UN migration agency predicts that Sudan could soon pass ten million (Reuters) internally displaced people in what is already the world’s largest displacement crisis. 

Russia/Africa: Russian authorities have threatened not to renew the visas of some African students and young workers unless they agree to join the military and fight in Ukraine, unnamed European officials told Bloomberg. Russia’s foreign ministry did not comment.

Europe

The two-day gathering is the first (Anadolu) ministerial meeting since the BRICS group (named for its original members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) added newcomers Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates in January. Representatives from fifteen additional countries were also invited.

This CFR Meeting discusses BRICS countries and the future of emerging markets.

Americas

The Morena party and its allies won a two-thirds majority in the lower legislative house but fell three seats shy (Bloomberg) in the Senate, the party’s president said yesterday. Morena’s leaders have said they will seek sweeping constitutional reforms, but would need to garner votes beyond the party’s coalition in the Senate to make them pass.

Brazil/China: Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin discussed (MercoPress) trade and investment with China on a visit to Beijing, including partnerships in the pharmaceutical sector and a Chinese-built train linking São Paulo to the nearby city of Campinas.

United States

U.S. automakers must achieve (NYT) an average of 65 miles per gallon across their passenger car product lines by 2031, up from 48.7 miles today, according to new Transportation Department rules announced Friday. They are part of a suite of regulations to prod carmakers toward the production of electric vehicles.

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