Dear John,

It's week three of the election campaign and we’ve had policies, debates, stunts, polling and the small matter of the return of Nigel Farage. So fasten your seatbelts and get ready to cover it all in this bumper edition of Weekend Wire.

A dereliction of duty



Campaigning took a brief break this week to mark the 80th anniversary of D-Day…well for some, at least. While Starmer took the whole of Thursday off to attend the main anniversary ceremony on Omaha Beach in Normandy, Sunak dipped early to take part in a pre-recorded TV interview back in the UK, set to go out next week. 

As our Director of Campaigns Cal Roscow remarked <[link removed]>, Sunak has “asked Britain’s young people to undertake a year of National Service - he couldn’t even do the afternoon,” adding that the decision showed “an astounding lack of judgement.”

Faced with a barrage of criticism, Sunak later admitted he had made a poor decision, writing <[link removed]> that “on reflection, it was a mistake not to stay in France longer.”

You can say that again!

Sunak V Starmer: The Showdown



Before Sunak committed perhaps the biggest pre-election gaffe in British history, Tuesday saw the first election debate between Sunak and Starmer over a wide range of issues including the economy, the NHS, immigration and national security. There was one glaring omission in Brexit, despite the fact that it's estimated to be costing the UK economy £100bn per year. <[link removed]>

The debate itself offered a fairly turgid start to the election campaign but, here’s a few key readouts in case you were lucky enough to have missed it:

Maths to 18

Sunak found himself on the ropes when it came to defending the Tories' abysmal record on the NHS. After Sunak suggested he was delivering on his promise to bring waiting lists down, Starmer quickly pointed out that waiting lists have actually gone up.

Cue laughs from the audience who could scarcely believe this man was in charge of the public finances. Yikes.

A taxing debate



Things weren’t entirely plain sailing for Starmer, however, with Sunak coming to the debate with a questionable pre-prepared line centred around some supposedly ‘independent analysis’ from treasury officials. Sunak’s claim that Labour’s plans would cost the public around £2,000 more in tax took Starmer a while to refute but the row extended well into the following day causing real controversy. 

The stakes were raised when a letter was published from Chief Treasury Civil Servant James Bowler outlining that the claims “should not be presented as having been produced by the civil service” <[link removed]>. So much for honesty and integrity in public office from Sunak’s Government.

MRP GO BRRRRR!!!

Perhaps the PM, who was irritable throughout the debate, was a little desperate after he had taken a glance at our latest MRP polling <[link removed]> released just before the debate which placed the Conservatives on a mere 71 seats in comparison to Labour's record breaking 487. Find out more details about our poll here <[link removed]>. We’ll be using only the latest data in making our tactical voting recommendations at Getvoting.org on 17 June.

Farage flip flops



Spare a thought for poor Richard Tice who, despite accounting for 80% of the Reform UK Party Ltd’s funding since 2021 <[link removed]> is now most definitely second banana (more on this later).

In the seaside town of Clacton, there was a tsunami of press for the new (self-imposed) leader of Reform UK Party Ltd and candidate for the seat, Nigel Farage. This will be his eighth attempt at running for Parliament, which takes the phrase “if you don’t succeed at first, try and try again” to a new extreme. 

Farage claimed his u-turn was due to ‘overwhelming’ pressure from the public. 

But in spite of a banana milkshake being thrown at Farage (something, to be clear, that has no place in politics), attention quickly turned to Reform’s rise in the polls rather than his plans to dry clean his suit.

With Farage apparently hell bent on pulling a Preston Manning <[link removed]> and taking over the Tory party from opposition, tactical voting will be vital to remove toxic populists from our politics. Luckily we have you covered with all the recommendations we make being based on the most up to date polling, incumbency and on-the-ground knowledge of local factors. Make sure you're signed up ready at GetVoting <[link removed]>!

Lib Dem turn serious on Social Care



This week, Ed Davey threw aside the paddle board and the comical chef hat <[link removed]> and launched the Lib Dems flagship policy on fixing the broken Social Care system by proposing free personal care, offered to older or disabled people at home. <[link removed].>

Davey said this pledge, plus raising care workers' pay, would end the hospital crisis and help people stay in their own homes. Plans would be funded by reversing tax cuts given to big banks by the Conservatives, he said, covering the estimated £2.7bn cost by 2028-29. 

In making the announcement Ed Davey shared his own heartfelt experience <[link removed]> as a full time carer for his disabled son.

Gething a little tense

Though everything seems to be going reasonably well for Labour, they are in some difficulty in Wales as First Minister Vaughan Gething lost a confidence vote. 

Gething, who has been in the role for just under eighty days, has been under intense scrutiny about campaign donations totalling £200,000 from a company embroiled in environmental offences emboldening the Conservatives to table a vote of no confidence in the First Minister.

With two of his Senedd members off sick and unable to vote, Gething saw his slim majority disappear and lost the vote. As the vote was not binding he is allowed to continue in the role but questions remain if his leadership will be tenable on the far side of polling day..

🫣 Cringe Column 😬

<[link removed]>Not another one!

The Conservatives also used this week to release their first party political broadcast of the election, which inevitably was overshadowed by blunder. Showcasing a flying Union Flag, the big brains at CCHQ didn't realise that the flag was upside down <[link removed]>, a known signal of distress. The jokes just write themselves…

Hanging up on Sam

After Sky News’ devastating poll showed Grant Shapps losing his seat, the Defence Secretary was determined to call Sky’s political editor Sam Coates to argue his case. Unfortunately, Coates was on air at the time. 

[link removed]

<[link removed]>That's all from me!

Have a great weekend.

Ben Stead Lewis
External Affairs Officer


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