June 7, 2024
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Unemployment jumps to 4 percent with 408,000 fewer Americans report having jobs as air continues to come out of Biden economy
By Robert Romano
408,000 fewer Americans reported being employed as the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4 percent in May, according to the latest data compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ household survey.
That accounts for 783,000 fewer Americans reporting they have jobs since Nov. 2023 when employment peaked at 161.86 million. Now it’s down to 161.08 million.
In the meantime, unemployment is up to 6.6 million from its April 2023 low of 5.7 million, an increase of more than 900,000. That includes an increase of 157,000 more unemployed in the past month along.
Overall, the unemployment rate itself is now noticeably above its April 2023 low of 3.4 percent, coming in at 4 percent now, its highest level since Nov. 2021. That’s likely not great news for President Joe Biden amid his 2024 reelection bid against former President Donald Trump.
All of that is consistent with annualized inflation gradually easing, at 3.4 percent the past twelve months as of April and down from its June 2022 level of 9.1 percent. Usually, after peak inflation, when the economy overheats, consumer purchases will slow down and unemployment will tick upward, which it is.
The truth is, the unemployment rate might be much higher if not for the Baby Boomer retirement wave still underway.
Those not in the labor force jumped by 433,000, which offset the 157,000 increase in unemployment in terms of calculating the unemployment rate. Overall, not in labor force is up by 721,000 the past year.
Almost all of that on a net basis is old people, with 65 and over accounting for 637,000 more not in the labor force as the Baby Boomer retirement wave continues apace.
Since Jan. 2021, 65 and over not in the labor force is up 1.36 million to its current level of 32.36 million. It’s up 8.6 million since May 2014, and up 13.3 million since June 2008, representing a massive generational shift in the U.S. labor force that is still working itself out.
In his State of the Union address on March 7, President Joe Biden emphasized the overall slowdown of inflation and promised that “The landing is and will be soft.” But will it?
In its Dec. 2023 economic projections, the Federal Reserve stated the unemployment rate would hit 4.1 percent this year. It’s almost there, with just another 168,000 more unemployed to go to hit the Fed’s projection — assuming the projection wasn’t understated.
That would amount to about 1 million more unemployed during the current slowdown, compared to the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008 and 2009, and the 2020 Covid recession, when 8 million and 25 million of jobs were lost, respectively
That would also be smaller than when the dotcom bubble popped in the late 1990s and a recession was experienced in 2001 and 2002. Then, almost 2.1 million jobs were lost from peak employment in March 2001 to the bottom of the labor market in Jan. 2002, from almost 137.8 million down to 135.7 million, although the unemployment rate would not peak until June 2003 at 6.3 percent.
The numbers currently seen so far aren’t horrible, but there could still be more trouble on the horizon. At the high end of its projections, the Fed sees unemployment getting as high as 4.5 percent in 2024 and 4.7 percent in 2025.
The indicator to keep your eye on remains the spread between 10-year and 2-year treasuries, which tends to invert prior to recessions, and then uninverts as the unemployment rate rises. At -0.44 percent as of this writing, and so it still hasn’t uninverted, implying more job losses ahead, but is much above its -1.07 and -1.08 percent readings in March and July 2023, respectively. It’s just a matter of time before it uninverts.
The question might be whether its pain now, or pain later. So far, with inflation still with room to fall and Fed holding its elevated interest rates steady for the time being, and unemployment slowly increasing, it’s looking like pain later. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Massive Losses for Biden with Young Minority Voters Highlight Two Compounding Issues for Democrats Going Forward
By Manzanita Miller
There is no shortage of polling showing President Joe Biden suffering steep losses among both young and minority voters compared to 2020, but new data reveals a compounding effect with Black, Hispanic and Asian voters under age 40 deserting the president in droves.
According to the University of Chicago’s latest GenForward survey, just a third of young Americans under age 40 plan to support Biden, a striking decline in support compared to previous elections.
This gives Biden a mere two-point advantage over former President Donald Trump in the survey, with Biden earning 33 percent of the vote to Trump’s 31 percent and a broad 21 percent of young Americans choosing someone else while 11 percent commit to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The poll shows Biden leading Trump among young Black voters by just ten percentage points, 33 percent to 23 percent, with a quarter of young Black voters supporting someone else. Among young Hispanics, Trump is outright beating Biden by four points – 32 percent to 28 percent –with 28 percent supporting someone else.
These numbers are a stark contrast to 2020, when young nonwhite voters overwhelmingly supported Biden, and underscore a key coalition Democrats are at risk of losing – younger minority voters. What it also underscores is the wide interest in third-party candidates among nonwhite voters, however, the bulk of Biden’s declines cannot be attributed to that alone.
Last presidential election, Biden beat Trump by a jaw-dropping 79 percentage points among Black voters under 30, and 59 points among Black voters aged 30-44, but those wide margins are contracting significantly. In 2020, Biden beat Trump by slightly slimmer margins among young Hispanics. He beat Trump by 41 points among Latinos under 30 and by 28 points among Latinos 30-44.
Again, the current GenForward survey shows Biden beating Trump among Blacks under age 40 by a mere ten percentage points and losing Hispanics under 40 by four points. These numbers are vast, almost unbelievable, but as we’ve covered in other articles recently, there is ample evidence supporting a vast decline in youth and minority support for Biden, accelerated in the past two years.
We have covered other research validating a strong shift among younger minorities away from Democrats in recent months. First, a recent poll from UnidosUS found that new Latino voters who were added to the voter pool after 2016 or 2020 – younger voters, largely – are much less likely to be Democrats than voters who’ve been in the voter pool for several election cycles.
The report finds that almost 40 percent of the Latino electorate this November will be new voters compared to the 2016 election, and newer registered Latinos are much younger than the voter population as a whole, with a full 80% of newer Latino voters clocking in at age 39 or younger. The report also notes that newer voters are fourteen points less likely to be Democrats compared to established voters (just 45 percent of newer voters identify as Democrat, compared to 59 percent of more established voters). Newer voters are also much more likely to be independent (36 percent) compared to older voters (18 percent) and newer voters are only slightly less likely to be Republican (18 percent) compared to established voters (23 percent).
With regard to Black Americans, data from AEI's survey for American life last fall found that Biden’s approval rating among younger Blacks is significantly lower than it is among older Blacks and that younger Blacks are less likely to say Democrats look out for the working-class.
The Democratic Party is hollowing itself out by ignoring the needs of working-class and younger Americans who are heavily driven by issues like inflation, housing prices, wage stagnation, and the immigration crisis. Democrats lost the working-class white vote in much the same way – ignoring or dismissing these voters and focusing on pet projects that held little value to the average American. Without a strategy to address economic concerns, Biden may be remembered as the president who tipped the scales and ushered in a working-class coalition on the right.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/06/massive-losses-for-biden-with-young-minority-voters-highlight-two-compounding-issues-for-democrats-going-forward/
Bannon imprisonment demonstrates banana republic two-tiered justice system
June 6, 2024, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning today issued the following statement blasting the imprisonment of Steve Bannon:
“The decision to revoke Steve Bannon’s bail and require him to report to prison by July 1 with his sentence set to end in early November is a stark reminder of the two-tier justice system. Bannon’s ‘crime’ was filing an appeal based upon the mainstream legal theory that counselors to the President have a legal shield when it comes to providing official advice. This shield is important as without it, outside advisors on foreign policy would be required to testify under penalty of perjury about whatever was discussed between them and the President. It is common and necessary for presidents to seek consultation with people outside of their administration, particularly as it pertains to political matters. After the Court ruled against Bannon’s immunity from interrogation, he agreed to appear before the laughable and reprehensible January 6 Committee of the House of Representatives, only to be told that they didn’t really want to hear from him, they wanted to jail him. Imagine a world where David Axelrod went to jail for not appearing before Congress to discuss political discussions he had with Barack Obama. That is the world that is being thrust upon us, as Steve Bannon’s decision to have the Court determine whether he was compelled to testify has resulted in his conviction and imprisonment.
“As someone who has cautioned against an eye for an eye approach to these political prosecutions, the imprisonment of top Trump White House advisor Peter Navarro, impending imprisonment of Steve Bannon, along with the kangaroo court conviction of former president Donald Trump demonstrates that those responsible for weaponizing the criminal justice system against their political enemies must be held to account. The dangerous game being played by those who clearly have no fear of legal consequences due to their elite status protecting them from prosecution by their friends and wealthy neighbors is shredding any semblance of a politically blind justice system. Trust in an honest the judicial system is the most important American social contract holding our nation together and the Bannon imprisonment will provide more evidence that the very fabric that holds our nation together has been breached. As every person who has ever recited the Humpty Dumpty rhyme knows, once something is broken, it is impossible to put back together.
“For those who embrace ‘fundamental transformation’ of a country that valued a blindfolded justice system the damage done by the Obama-Biden lawfare may be their crowning achievement as the country which once had a judicial system that was the envy of the world has made banana republics shrink in horror at what it has become.”
To view online: https://getliberty.org/2024/06/bannon-imprisonment-demonstrates-banana-republic-two-tiered-justice-system/
Joel Pollak: Revoke the Security Clearance of Everyone Who Signed the Hunter Biden Laptop Letter
By Joel Pollak
FBI agent Erika Jensen confirmed Tuesday that Hunter Biden’s laptop was in fact real and authentic — meaning that every single one of the 51 “former intelligence officials” who called it Russian misinformation in 2020 should lose their security clearances.
Recall that Politico published their letter in October 2020, just days after the New York Post revealed the existence of the laptop — which in turn revealed evidence about the Biden family’s corruption and foreign deals.
The Biden campaign seized on the letter — with Joe Biden specifically citing it during the subsequent presidential debate — and the media and the Silicon Valley tech giants followed, censoring news about the laptop on that basis.
One of those 51 officials, former CIA director John Brennan, had already lost his security clearance in 2018, after abusing his “access to highly sensitive information to make a series of unfounded and outrageous allegations,” the Trump White House said at the time. Still, despite his track record, the “Russian disinformation” hoax was widely believed.
It was only Tuesday, on the witness stand, that the FBI finally admitted what it knew all along to be true.
All of the other 50 signatories on the letter — including several former CIA directors and acting directors — should lose their security clearances, just as Brennan did. None of them can ever be trusted with access to secrets again.
To view online: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/06/05/pollak-revoke-the-security-clearance-of-everyone-who-signed-the-hunter-biden-laptop-letter/
Urge State Attorneys General To Sue New York At U.S. Supreme Court To Stop Election Interference And Overturn Trump Conviction!
To view online: https://limitgov.salsalabs.org/free-donald-trump/index.html