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With our political parties preparing to make their pitches to the public at their respective conventions this summer, senior editor William Voegeli looks at the changing Democratic and Republican coalitions (unlocked and excerpted below) and concludes that “It is easy to see why each party’s rebranding is imperative but hard to see how either effort succeeds.”

Also in our latest issue, contributing editor Christopher Caldwell considers Israel’s predicament, Lee Edwards revisits Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn’s Gulag Archipelago at 50, and Roger Kimball praises Plutarch.

We feature a rich symposium on National Conservatism with Yoram Hazony, Paul Gottfried, Victor Davis Hanson, Mark Krikorian, and several others, and a response from our editor, Charles Kesler.

And our book reviews include Charles Murray on Steve Sailer’s Noticing: An Essential Reader, 1973–2023, Diana Schaub on Allen Guelzo’s Our Ancient Faith: Lincoln, Democracy, and the American Experiment, and John McWhorter on Coleman Hughes’s The End of Race Politics: Arguments for a Colorblind America, as well as John O’Sullivan on British politics, Randy Barnett on libertarianism, George Gilder on wealth creation, and James Grant on inflation.

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The Must-Read for The Most Well-Read

Life of the Party

Democrats and Republicans seek their futures.

by William Voegeli

Predictions are hard, especially ones about the future, as Yogi Berra may or may not have warned. (Attribution is also hard, especially regarding things said in the past.) But predictions are also captivating, which is why people keep making them and taking them seriously. In an age of faith, the gift of prophecy was a sign of God’s favor. In an age of reason, it is a sign of analytical prowess. A secular Nostradamus gets the future right by understanding what’s going on now. Distinguishing between signal and noise, he identifies the key phenomena in the present that will prove decisive in shaping the future.

Consider Kevin Phillips, the then 28-year-old attorney who turned the research he had performed while working as an analyst for Richard Nixon’s 1968 presidential campaign into the 1969 bestseller, The Emerging Republican Majority. The moment was not obviously auspicious, for either the book or the GOP. Nixon did win the presidency, but narrowly rather than decisively, as had seemed likely in the months before Election Day. And though Republicans made modest gains in that year’s congressional races...[Continue reading for free!]

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