It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. 

Bloomberg via Getty Images/Jeenah Moon


THE ECONOMIC COSTS AND LOSSES AHEAD WITH CORONAVIRUS
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

Despite many efforts, there is not yet an ironclad model for predicting how long this coronavirus outbreak will last, nor how grave a toll it will take in American lives.

Five Thirty Eight calls this the “Wild World of Pandemic Modeling,” and they published a comic strip ([link removed]) to help people understand the difficulty in pinning down the future of COVID-19.

However. While the long-term health forecast is shadowy, we now are seeing a few inklings of light on the short-term costs and needs immediately ahead.

Unemployment reach
* Nearly 17 million Americans filed for unemployment ([link removed]) in the three weeks between March 15 and April 4. That is roughly 10 percent of the entire U.S. civilian labor force.
* Forecasters have not been able to keep up. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicted ([link removed]) at the beginning of April that the nation would hit 10 percent unemployment by summer. Butsome experts now believe ([link removed]) the U.S. is already well past 10 percent.
* That level of joblessness has only been reached one other time since the Great Depression, for several months in 1982 and 1983.
* Economist Robert Frick at Navy Federal Credit Uniontold Marketplace ([link removed]) that 20 percent unemployment is a “low end” estimate for this summer.

Unemployment length
* Frick and others believe that unemployment will peak for two to three months, and then slightly improve.

The places hit hardest
* Some places will be harder hit than others, depending on the prevalence of the virus and a city or state’s dependence on industries most negatively affected by the outbreak.
* In particular, that includes the entertainment/leisure and energy industries.
* Nevada, Alaska, Hawaii and Mississippi are projected to have the highest unemployment rates, according to analysis by the Economic Policy Institute. ([link removed])

The overall economic hit
* The CBO forecast that gross domestic product will fall 7 percent by mid-June.
* Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke estimated that GDP ([link removed]) could crash much more, up to 30 percent, in the second quarter.
* That would eclipse levels during the Great Depression. But Bernanke points out that the Great Depression’s deepest effects were caused by its length — a 12-year economic crisis. He foresees this being a deep but far less lasting punch.

States will struggle
* States face a potential massive shortfall of $500 billion as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, according to new analysis ([link removed]) by the left-leaning Center for Budget and Policy Priorities. That is at least 10 percent of state budgets. And the CBPP estimates it could be more.
* Many states face especially dire situations because they are bound, by law, to balance their budgets. A loss of revenues would force massive cuts in spending.
* Maryland and Arizona already have announced they expect revenue to drop 20 percent or more.
* Tribal nations also face large needs, the study finds, due to increased vulnerability to the disease as well as fewer resources initially.

The cost to federal taxpayers

This is a great unknown. But let’s look at the first three recovery bills to pass Congress.

1. The Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Act. $8.3 billion ([link removed]) . This measure was passed quickly to move billions of dollars toward health needs, primarily toward vaccine development and other measures to combat the coronavirus.

2. The Families First Act. $192 billion ([link removed]) , per the CBO. This act provided some direct and indirect help to states and created new requirements for how employers must handle potential sick leave, family leave and Medicaid for people directly affected by the virus.

3. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security or CARES Act. $2.2 trillion. This bill, which is thought to be the largest one-time spending bill in U.S. history, included sweeping relief for the unemployed, small businesses and large corporations ([link removed]) . The CBO has not yet published an official cost estimate but leaders in Washington forecast it will be at least $2.2 trillion.

FIVE OVERLOOKED POLITICAL STORIES FROM THE PAST WEEK
By Alex D’Elia, @AlexDEliaNews ([link removed])
Politics production assistant

Northam signs sweeping measures on environment, voting, criminal justice ([link removed]) -- April 12. The bills signed by the governor of Virginia include legislation removing voter ID requirements and making Election Day a state holiday. Why it matters: State Democrats have been pushing for these measures for years but were only able to pass them now after gaining control of the state legislature in the November 2019 elections. -- Richmond Times-Dispatch

Pollsters find unexpected boon: Americans stuck at home willing to talk ([link removed]) -- April 12. Response rates for political pollsters are through the roof as Americans are locked indoors during the pandemic. Why it matters: There is a silver lining to the tragic pandemic as pollsters are able to get responses more quickly and from different demographics than they would otherwise. -- The Hill

Pennsylvania gets drive-thru testing site catering to Amish people arriving by horse-and-buggy ([link removed]) -- April 10. The site is also helping raise awareness about the coronavirus among these religious communities. Why it matters: The testing site accommodations let these communities adhere to their beliefs while getting tested and practicing social distancing. -- Philly Voice

GOP pushes voting by mail — with restrictions — while Trump attacks it as ‘corrupt’ ([link removed]) -- April 13. Republican governors and secretaries of state across the country are urging people to vote by mail during the coronavirus pandemic. Why it matters: Republicans are encouraging vote-by-mail as a way to maintain social distancing during the pandemic, though they have long encouraged absentee voting to target likely GOP voters, like seniors. -- The Washington Post

Virus-wracked federal prisons again expand release criteria ([link removed]) -- April 11. Inmates who have yet to complete half of their sentences may now be considered for home confinement during the coronavirus pandemic. Why it matters: The threat of the virus is amplified in these enclosed facilities, as seen in Louisiana’s Oakdale prison complex, where six inmates have died and at least 40 prisoners and 17 staff have tested positive for the virus. -- POLITICO


#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Kate Grumke, @KGrumke ([link removed])
Politics producer

In the middle of the 20th century, a U.S. president famously tried to nationalize the steel industry to prevent a strike, claiming sweeping powers because of the Korean War. The steel companies sued, and in a landmark decision, the Supreme Court ruled that the president did not have this authority, arguing in its decision that "the President's power to see that the laws are faithfully executed refutes the idea that he is to be a lawmaker."

Our question: Who was that president?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: On this day in 1948, the United Nations formed an international organization focused on public health. That entity has played a big role in the response to the novel coronavirus. What is the name of that organization?

The answer is the World Health Organization.

Congratulations to our winners: Tyler Branz and Kpsteele!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your Inbox next week.
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