Early Indian Vote Count Signals Ruling Party Seats Could Shrink |
Initial counting in India’s general election suggested that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was on track (FT) to remain the largest party in the lower house but could hold fewer seats than at present. The early results were a stronger-than-expected showing for India’s opposition alliance and could force Modi to govern in coalition rather than with the supermajority that he sought.
As of 8:35 a.m. Eastern Time, India’s election authority reported that the BJP and allied parties had won 43 parliamentary seats and were leading (NYT) in races for 244 more, while the opposition alliance had won 14 seats and were leading in races for 219. During the campaign, Modi had pinned hopes on his alliance winning four hundred seats in the lower house. He still appears set to be the second Indian leader ever elected for three consecutive terms.
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“[The opposition includes] parties which had previously been fighting one another which have agreed to lay down their arms to focus their ammunition on the BJP,” the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Milan Vaishnav said at a CFR webinar on the elections. “The economy, despite the impressive headline numbers, is not firing on all cylinders.”
“Whoever forms the next government must recognize a clear message from the electorate: the importance of economic issues,” the University of Massachusetts Amherst’s Jayati Ghosh writes for The Hindu. In this Expert Brief, CFR’s Manjari Chatterjee Miller lays out what to know about India’s 2024 general election. |
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Reports: Biden to Sign Executive Order Reducing Asylum Processing on U.S.-Mexico Border |
U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to order border authorities (WSJ) today to cease processing asylum seekers if the number of migrant apprehensions at the southern border exceeds 2,500 per day, unnamed sources briefed on the plan told multiple news outlets. That total is below the daily average of apprehensions in recent months. Former President Donald Trump sought to impose a similar restriction in 2018 but was blocked by federal courts.
This Backgrounder by CFR’s Diana Roy looks at how the U.S. asylum process works.
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U.S. Defense Secretary Meets With Cambodian Leaders |
Lloyd Austin discussed (CNN) ways to strengthen the bilateral defense relationship in meetings in Phnom Penh today with Prime Minister Hun Manet and Defense Minister Tea Seiha. Austin also voiced concerns about China’s funding of and presence at a Cambodian naval base.
For World Politics Review, CFR expert Joshua Kurlantzick assesses whether the Hun Manet administration is bringing change to Cambodia.
China/Hong Kong/Taiwan: Hong Kong police detained (Reuters) several activists, and Chinese authorities enforced strict security around Beijing’s Tiananmen Square today, the thirty-fifth anniversary of the 1989 massacre of pro-democracy protesters at the plaza. Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te said in a statement that the memory of that day “will not disappear in the torrent of history.”
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Pakistan PM Hails ‘Unshakeable’ All-Weather Relations With China on Visit |
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif begins (PTI) a five-day trip to Beijing today, his first since taking office in March. The two governments are set to debut the second phase of the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative. |
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Middle East and North Africa |
Washington Submits Resolution on Gaza Cease-Fire to UN Security Council |
U.S. officials continue their diplomatic push to support a cease-fire and hostage release deal in the Gaza Strip, which leaders of Group of Seven (G7) countries endorsed (Reuters) yesterday. The families of Israeli hostages held in Gaza by Hamas reiterated (CNN) calls for a deal yesterday after Israel’s military announced four hostages had been killed months ago.
Iran/Israel/Syria: Israeli air strikes near the Syrian city of Aleppo killed (NYT) an officer of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported. The officer is thought to be the first Iranian killed by Israel since the country bombed Iran’s Damascus embassy compound in April. The IRGC and Iranian government did not immediately comment (RFE/RL) on the strike. The Syria Observatory for Human Rights, a United Kingdom (UK)-based watchdog, said the target appeared to be a copper factory and a weapons warehouse.
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South Korea, African Countries to Start High-Level Talks on Critical Minerals Cooperation |
The meetings were announced (AP) today in Seoul, where South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol hosted representatives from forty-eight African nations, including twenty-five heads of state. South Korea pledged to increase its cumulative development aid to African countries to around $10 billion by 2030 and issue $14 billion in export financing for the region.
Ethiopia/Somalia: Somalia will force more than three thousand Ethiopian peacekeepers in the country to leave at the end of the year if Ethiopia does not terminate plans for a port deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland, Somalia’s national security advisor told Reuters. The troops are stationed as part of an African Union mission against the insurgent group al-Shabaab. The Ethiopian government and military did not comment.
This Backgrounder by Claire Klobucista and CFR’s Mariel Ferragamo looks at Somaliland’s port deal and its fight for sovereignty.
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Farmers Protest in Brussels, on Spanish-French Border Ahead of EU Election |
Agriculture groups from several countries staged demonstrations (AP) in Brussels today, criticizing some of the requirements of proposed European Union (EU) environmental legislation ahead of EU elections set to begin this Thursday. Farmers also blocked the road (Reuters) along the border between France and Spain. Earlier this year, the EU extended subsidies for farmers following a spate of protests.
This article by CFR’s Matthias Matthijs and Caroline Kapp discusses what’s at stake in the EU elections.
China/UK: China’s security ministry accused (NYT) UK intelligence services of recruiting a couple working for the Chinese government to spy for the United Kingdom in a post on its WeChat account. It is the latest in a series of espionage accusations between the two countries. It was not immediately clear whether the couple had been detained; both governments declined to comment further.
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Study Finds Southern Brazil Floods Were Twice As Likely Due to Climate Change |
Human-caused climate change made (NYT) the extreme rains that flooded southern Brazil last month twice as likely, a team of scientists from World Weather Attribution said. More than 172 people were killed and more than half a million were displaced in the floods.
Mexico: Finance Minister Rogelio Ramírez de la O will remain in his post (Bloomberg) during the administration of President-Elect Claudia Sheinbaum, she posted yesterday. Earlier in the day, the Mexican peso fell (Bloomberg) in trading amid signs that Sheinbaum’s left-wing party could hold a large congressional majority.
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