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DARK CLOUDS AND A GENTLE RED DAWN  
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Josef Lakatos
June 29, 2024
Transform!Europe
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_ The big question in this election will be to what extent the KPÖ
will actually succeed in convincing enough left-wing voters, segments
of previous non-voters and also sympathisers with the extreme
right-wing FPÖ. _

Group photo of KPÖ members at the Party conference for the European
elections in Graz, November 2023. Banner: Our strength: Solidarity.,
(Source: KPÖ Facebook account).

 

In the nights of mid-May 2024, a rare natural spectacle took place in
Europe. Due to a solar storm, the northern lights, also known as
Aurora, were partially visible to the naked eye in Austria. While the
mountains are cloaked in a flickering red at night, it also seems
conceivable that the starting signal for a significant social change
in the country has already been given: After several regional
elections, an almost revolutionary change is in the offing, effecting
the Austrian political landscape, a resurrection of the Communist
Party (KPÖ) 65 years after it was last represented in the National
Parliament.

In the municipal elections in Austria’s second largest city, Graz,
in September 2021, the KPÖ became the strongest party with over 28%
of the vote, which resulted in Elke Kahr being elected mayor, and this
in spite of being a communist. An equally impressive development was
seen in the city of Salzburg in March 2024, where the party became the
second strongest force with 22%. Just a few weeks later, in April
2024, the KPÖ in Innsbruck made it onto the municipal council at the
first attempt with 7% or three seats. The fact that the party was able
to succeed in all cases is largely due to the social upheavals
resulting from the European multi-crisis – and, also, to a political
style that involves acting on an equal footing with voters. This
involves addressing people’s problems in personal consultations and
providing them with concrete support. The funds for this come from the
salaries of the office holders: they are only allowed to keep an
average skilled worker’s salary for themselves and donate everything
above this to the party’s social fund.

Pandemic, War and Inflation

The ever-developing multi-crisis had far-reaching consequences in all
European countries. The conservative-green government consisting of
the ÖVP and the Greens, which took the helm in autumn 2019, stumbled
into the pandemic right at the start of its term of office. While an
extensive health monitoring and vaccination campaign was launched, the
economic focus was on the introduction of reduced working hours,
working from home and business support. While people tried to protect
themselves and their environment in various lockdowns, often
struggling to maintain their standard of living, at least €16
billion was channelled to companies without any significant controls
or conditions with entrepreneurs associated with the conservative ÖVP
party benefitting, in particular. Meanwhile, a social crisis had begun
to unfold in the background that had been barely recognised by
mainstream politics.

“Homes, Not Drones“(1)
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In Austria, there is a passage in tenancy law that had comparatively
unproblematic consequences in times of low inflation: landlords adjust
the rent to the general inflation rate twice a year. However, in
recent years of high inflation, this meant that the many people in
Austria who rent have had to cope with additional expenditure of up to
30 % – while wages were only increased by just under 9 % at a late
stage. The conservative-green government ignored the problem, as did
the Social Democrats, who could have taken counter-measures in Vienna.
Only the KPÖ focussed on the looming social crisis and was able to
turn this into a series of successes in regional elections. Meanwhile,
the massive rearmament in the EU, which quite contrary to the euro
crisis involves no more calls for budget discipline, is a clear sign
that peace policy is currently not a prospect for the European
political elites in view of the war in Ukraine. Despite Austria’s
neutrality, which is enshrined in the state treaty, Austrian-made
rifles and pistols are being sent to Russia and Iran via detours. The
transport of armoured vehicles through the country’s territory to
the east is also increasing – in defiance of neutrality.
Representatives of the party always explain in interviews that they
want to stand up for peace instead of choosing one side of dying. Here
too, the KPÖ’s criticism is a unique selling point, despite the
demagogy of the far-right FPÖ. This party, among other things, calls
the Ukrainian president a warmonger, and had entered into a friendship
treaty with “United Russia” in 2016, shining a special light on
its one-sided partisanship in the current conflict.

From Vienna to Brussels

Regardless of the war, elections for the European Parliament are not
taken particularly seriously in Austria. In 2019, the voter turnout
was just under 60% while in previous elections participation was
usually well below 50%. The reasons for this development are likely to
be manifold: on the one hand, there is an awareness of the democratic
deficits within the EU, where a complicated power structure prevails
in which an unelected EU Commission sets the course in coordination
with the national governments. The European Parliament, with its very
limited competences, is more reminiscent of the beginnings of
bourgeois democracy in the 19th century. On the other hand, EU
scepticism that prevails among at least a third of voters also has
chauvinistic to conspiracy-theory traits. It remains to be seen
whether this development will actually be exacerbated by a shift to
the right in the EU elections, as predicted in the current polls.

Extreme Right on the Rise

The far-right FPÖ, which has now positioned itself on the right
fringe of the ID group, is currently fluctuating between 27 and 30% in
the polls and will potentially double its share of seats from three to
six. This would mean that the right-wing extremists would emerge from
the elections as the strongest party. While the conservative governing
party ÖVP is likely to lose two to three of its current seven seats,
the Greens are also struggling with a scandal regarding the
credibility of their young lead candidate, who has outgrown the
climate movement and is increasingly at odds with her former left-wing
environment. The first consequence of this was that the Greens’ poll
ratings shrank from around 14% to 9%, which would mean the loss of one
mandate (previously: three). The three remaining parties, the Social
Democrats, the (neo-)liberal “Neos” and the KPÖ, are likely to
benefit from this development. The Social Democratic SPÖ, whose
current leader Andreas Babler has described himself as a “Marxist”
but does not have much support within the party, is currently slightly
ahead of the ÖVP and could defend second place with 24% and five
seats. The Liberals, on the other hand, could significantly improve
their result with around 15% or two to three seats, based on just one
mandate.

Street Campaigning as Anti-fascism

However, the big question in this election will be to what extent the
KPÖ will actually succeed in convincing enough left-wing voters,
segments of previous non-voters and also FPÖ sympathisers. The
pointedly down-to-earth approach of the election campaign, which also
specifically attempts to appeal to Eurosceptic voters on the extreme
right, opens up new perspectives, but also represents a balancing act
with regard to the previously loyal core electorate. Another focus of
the campaign is the sharp criticism of lobbying at European level,
which undermines the political sovereignty of all people in Europe. It
remains to be seen whether at the end of the day the polling
institutes will be correct in their predictions of only 2 to 4 % for
the KPÖ. This is because the party was systematically underestimated
in the polls in the run-up to the regional elections in Styria,
Salzburg and Innsbruck. Public broadcasting also offers the KPÖ only
a fraction of the time in election coverage that is given to other
parties, a relic of the anti-communism that used to be widespread.
Ultimately, it will be down to the KPÖ’s extremely committed street
campaign whether it manages to break through the 4% barrier. The KPÖ
is reinforced by an offensive by communist youth and student
organisations as well as by organising concepts, focusing on those
areas where social need is greatest and voter turnout has so far been
very limited. The leading candidate and party chairman, Günther
Hopfgartner, is at the forefront and, as the manager of a coffeeshop,
occasionally serves drinks himself as part of the campaign. The
chances that an Austrian communist will be represented in the European
Parliament for the first time are plainly intact.

From Brussels to Vienna

In any case, the European elections are also an important stopover for
the KPÖ: the National Council is expected to be elected in Austria on
29 September this year. There, too, according to the polls, the party
might be about to enter Parliament, 65 years after it was last
represented. If the double sensation does indeed materialise and the
party successfully makes the leap into both the European and national
parliaments, the Aurora may not have promised too much by Austrian
standards in May. A quantum leap for the left in Austria is within
reach.

(1)
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slogan in German is “Wohnen statt Kanonen”, which rhymes and
literally translates as “Housing instead of cannons”. It also
refers to a poem by Bertolt Brecht.

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