My takeaways from last month
The maps were decided. May spelled the end of redistricting litigation that will impact the 2024 elections and it was a good news/bad news story from the Supreme Court.
Good: In Louisiana, the Supreme Court rejected a hurried effort by the GOP to reverse a voting rights win from earlier this year that resulted in the creation of a second Black-opportunity district. The conservative majority appears to think it's simply too late in the election cycle to redraw maps.
Bad: In an opinion written by flag-hating Justice Samuel Alito, the Court severely limited the ability of plaintiffs to bring racial gerrymandering cases. While this case will have lasting repercussions, for now it means that Black voters in South Carolina will suffer.
Early decisions are bad for the GOP. If we have learned nothing from the last few years, it is that Republicans know how to file anti-voting lawsuits and know even better how to lose. While not yet at their 2020 post-election level (where they lost 64 lawsuits and won one), May was a brutal month for the GOP…
MAGA Lost: The Supreme Court refused to hear a case challenging Oregon’s vote by mail system.
MAGA Lost: An Arizona state court rejected the RNC’s effort to invalidate the state’s Election Procedure Manual.
MAGA Lost: A Maryland federal dismissed a lawsuit aiming to disrupt Maryland’s system for election administration.
MAGA Lost: An appeals court turned away a Republican Party appeal seeking to overturn New York’s expanded mail-in voting law.
MAGA Lost: Also in New York, a trial court largely upheld the state’s absentee voting law against a Republican lawsuit.
TRUMP CONVICTED: Last but not least, thanks to New York, Trump is now a convicted felon.
The Trump campaign brings its first lawsuit in years. In what is certainly a sign of things to come, the Trump campaign filed its first election lawsuit in three years. Unsurprisingly, they target Nevada’s mail-in ballot receipt deadline. Given Trump’s track record in court, I feel pretty good about this one.
What I’m watching for
Decisions to sue. In recent months, we have seen a measurable uptick in litigation filed by the Republican Party aimed at election administration. These cases serve the dual purpose of challenging existing laws as well as satisfying Trump’s desire for more election-denying litigation. I’m watching to see if the RNC continues to expand precious resources on these cases? What will their allies do?
Decisions to appeal. As courts decide more and more election cases, losing parties will have to make fast decisions about whether to appeal. This is especially tricky for states that have a dual incentive to defend their laws and already have settled rules for the election. Appealing adverse decisions often puts those two motivations at odds. Look for Republican attorneys general to dig in and fight ideological wars while election officials prioritize certainty.
Decisions to settle. States and localities looking to avoid litigation are often tempted to find a middle ground with potential plaintiffs. In 2020, we saw several states and counties settle cases either before they were filed or shortly thereafter. Republicans attacked those decisions making the political cost of settlement higher. Still, as we approach the summer, this option will be on the table for government officials.
What I’m waiting for
Trump cases. While Trump was convicted in New York, that certainly won’t be the end of the road for his hush money case. I’m waiting to see when he appeals that decision and more importantly, what the Supreme Court decides on his claim of absolute presidential immunity. Though they will likely make little practical difference for how the election is conducted, they are all politically significant to how the campaigns message to and persuade voters and thus worth watching.
RNC cases. I could list dozens of cases awaiting decisions, but I am particularly interested in how the courts confront three filed by the RNC. All have a good chance of being decided this month.
Michigan: Attempts to impose stricter signature verification rules for absentee ballots.
Nevada: Challenges the state’s voter roll maintenance policies.
Mississippi: Seeks to shorten the deadline to return mail-in ballots.
