Dear John,

The election campaign is thoroughly underway in the UK, complete with stunts from the Lib Dems, hilariously bad photo placements from the Tories and a war waged primarily on TikTok from Labour. Let's get into it, shall we?

But first, the biggest news of the week…

The orange is the new orange

Guilty on 34 counts. The first ex-president to become a convicted felon. Banned from doing business in New York. Accused of sexual assault. Attempted to overturn an election. Incited an attack on the US Capitol. 

And still Donald Trump is the 2024 presumptive Republican presidential nominee. Nothing about the trial can disqualify him and only voters will decide if he returns to the White House.

So what happens if you're convicted of falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to a porn star during an election campaign? The offence carries a maximum sentence of four years in prison. But these are low level felonies with no mandatory punishment, and it's his first conviction - so it's more likely that he could be fined or put on probation. Either way we'll find out on 11th July.

To appeal or not to appeal…: That is the real question facing Trump. His team has already said he will, but the process will have to wait until after sentencing and could take years. If he won, he'd be free - to face more serious prosecutions in Georgia, Florida and Washington DC. The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune are shooting straight into Republicans' inboxes, though - a fundraising email went out half an hour after the verdict, with one supporter stumping up $5 million.

On the other side of the special relationship

While Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak both walk the awkward line between alienating the possible next President, a convicted felon, and condemning his crimes, they've both been on a policy blitz.

Red wall Blue wall GREY WALL

Rishi Sunak's vision for the country is almost solely directed at over-65s. For the young, mandatory national service and scrapping 1 in 8 university courses. For pensioners, a tax cut. Meanwhile, according to a new report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the Tories have overseen:

• 4.6 million working-age adults so poor they can't heat their home
• Growth in household disposable income in the last 14 years 63% higher for pensioners than non-pensioners
• The highest tax burden for 70 years, partially driven by the freeze on income tax thresholds

While YouGov polling indicates Sunak's policies enjoy some popularity, especially with his core vote (57% of over-65s back the national service plan, vs. just 18% of 18-24-year-olds), it's not translating - yet - into a broader poll squeeze on voting intention. 

Defection, resignation, disintegration

Meanwhile, former Tory MP for Bolton North East Mark Logan, who's not standing this time around, has said he'll be voting Labour at the election - and hasn't ruled out standing for Labour in the future. 

If his defection from Conservative to Labour had happened before the dissolution of parliament, he'd have been only the tenth MP to switch between the two parties in 100 years. Four of which have happened since the last election. 

In the red corner!

After days of Labour infighting, it's finally been confirmed that Diane Abbott will be able to stand for Labour in Hackney North and Stoke Newington. Good news for the veteran MP, and for Starmer who faced a near-split with his deputy Angela Rayner over the issue. And good news for Rayner: she's been cleared of any criminal wrongdoing by Greater Manchester police, while the local council and HMRC both said they were taking no further action. She's finally been let loose on the campaign trail.

On policy watch, Labour's announcements so far include:

• Great British Energy, a state-owned green energy company to be based in Scotland; with plans backed by former Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance (of next-slide-please Covid lockdown fame)
• No VAT rise (as also promised by the Conservatives and Lib Dems)
• Clearing the NHS waiting list backlog within five years

So far, so uncontroversial. Let's see what the manifesto brings in a few weeks' time.

…And dripping wet in the yellow corner

Lib Dem leader has been having the time of his life on the election trail. So far he's been snapped falling off a paddleboard, on a water slide, freewheeling on a bicycle and baking biscuits. All interesting ways to promote his policy announcements - a mental health practitioner in every school, and free school meals for primary pupils.

The Green Party's campaign has also kicked off - as veteran MP Caroline Lucas steps down (we'll miss her!), she passes the baton to four candidates they believe are in with a shot of reaching the green benches at this election.

Jostling for position

After pledging allegiance to the election of Donald Trump, this week saw the unwelcome return of Nigel Farage to British politics. Back in April our polling showed Reform's vote share rising in almost all parts of the country, so it was a surprise to many when Farage announced he wouldn't be standing as a candidate for Reform. But he seems to have all but wrenched the reins from Reform’s actual leader Richard Tice, appearing on Peston and Question Time for the party.

The real question is whether the Tories will broker another regressive alliance with Reform if their polling numbers don't improve - we saw this in 2019, giving Boris Johnson a clear path to Downing Street. Farage implied this week he might be willing to have a conversation with Sunak if the PM can offer something in return; but this was quickly refuted by party leader Richard Tice who said they are “doing no deals with the Tories”. One to watch.

Back in the real world

STRIKE! More than 500 Border Force officers at Heathrow Airport are walking out for a further three days’ strike action, while families travel home from the half term. They’re locked in a dispute over a new roster they say has cost 250 colleagues their jobs or moved them into other roles against their wishes. And junior doctors are to stage a five-day strike just before the election in their long-running pay dispute with the government.

NHS: Some GOOD news this week as thousands of patients in England are to be fast-tracked into trials of personalised cancer vaccines in a world-first NHS "matchmaking" scheme. Plus, Martha's Rule - named after 13-year-old Martha Mills, who died from sepsis in 2021, and campaigned for by her parents - is to be rolled out across 143 hospitals in England. Under the rule change, patients and their families will be able to call an internal phone number and request a second opinion from a critical care outreach team.

A steaming pile of water: Thames Water has warned hundreds of residents in Surrey not to drink the tap water after a leak from a petrol station appears to have leached into the water system. It comes after South West Water was forced to apologise after dozens of people in Devon were infected with a diarrhoea-type illness which had contaminated water supplies. And sewage has been pumped into a brook running through a village on the edge of the Chiltern Hills, an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, for nearly a week. Remember just 2 weeks ago, when water companies in England and Wales said they wanted bills to increase by between 24% and 91% over the next five years?

🫣 Cringe Column 😬

This week, starring Rishi Sunak… who else?

You can stay up to date with the latest election news and B4B commentary by following us on X/Twitter, Instagram or TikTok.

Have a good weekend.

Julia Meadon
Director of Digital

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