Dear John,

The COVID-19 curve is bending, as the rate of New Yorkers coming into our hospitals slows. That is some much-needed good news, especially since it has been brought about by our collective action through physical distancing. 

Let’s be clear: Tens of thousands of our neighbors remain in the hospital. Yesterday alone, a staggering 671 COVID-related deaths were reported in New York State (and we know the real number is much higher). We have many weeks ahead before we can really call things “better,” many more weeks of staying in our homes.

Still, it is time to start thinking together about “what comes next.” The next phase of this crisis will not be a rosy picture either. Fewer people will die (so long as we are diligent), and we will be able to ease some restrictions. But we need to be prepared for how long -- likely 12-18 months -- how challenging, and how economically catastrophic it is likely to be. 

Since we can’t count on federal leadership, the next phase must involve a regional approach, which I was glad to hear Governor Cuomo announce today, along with the governors of New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Rhode Island. Here’s some of what that coordinated approach must include.

First, we must put in place a coordinated plan for testing and tracing, or we will not be ready to move beyond the current phase, even if cases continue to decline. Currently, we are nowhere close to where we need to be on testing. To begin reopening, we'll need either a super-massive scale of testing (Paul Romer has called for testing everyone every 14 days), or we'll need to combine large-scale testing with invasive contract-tracing technology, which raises hard questions about feasibility, surveillance, and enforcement.

Next, we need a lot more space to quarantine people who test positive or have been in contact with someone who has. People living in crowded apartments, homeless shelters, and in our city’s jails need places to safely isolate. The City has begun making some hotel rooms available for that, but we are going to need more, on the order of tens of thousands of hotel rooms, and rapid efforts to get affordable housing ready as soon as possible to accomodate the need.

We’ll then be able to ease some restrictions, but only in a gradual and thoughtful way. Gatherings of over 50 people will still be prohibited (no sporting events, concerts, or movies). Telework will still be strongly encouraged. And we’ll need clear guidelines for a wide array of other activities, hopefully through common rules across the region, balancing public health, racial and economic equity, and civil liberties. If cases start to tick up, we’ll need to quickly ramp restrictions back up.

Regional coordination will also be needed to implement economic relief and recovery plans that do right by our frontline workers (who we now acknowledge are essential but still to do too little to pay and protect), provide assistance to those who are unemployed (including freelance and gig workers), help to bring back our small businesses, and pay extra attention to those low-income communities of color that have been hardest hit by this crisis already.  

In particular, our region has benefitted massively from the work, creativity, and economic activity of millions of immigrant families -- and we continue to depend on many of these same people to harvest our food, deliver our meals, clean our workplaces, and much more. But the federal government has unconscionably excluded them from stimulus payments and unemployment insurance. So we must find a way to provide emergency cash assistance, rather than these families to lose their homes and become destitute. 

In the absence of federal funds for this, we should use a regional effort here too. In the past, Governor Cuomo has objected to measures that would raise revenue from the wealthiest New Yorkers (like closing the “carried interest” loophole) out of fear that people will just move across state lines. A coordinated regional effort to implement progressive revenue approaches will be needed to address these concerns and fill in the gaps.

Finally, many seniors and people who are immunocompromised will likely need to continue to isolate for this very long time. It will take a huge and creative effort to provide not only food and medicine and supplies, but also social contact and activities to make it livable and tolerable. We’re continuing to work on this effort with Heights & Hills and Greenwich House; we’ll have more to report on that soon.

It’s a long and hard road ahead, and we will only make it through shared sacrifice, effective governance, and social solidarity. But the work we’ve done together to bend the curve shows we’re capable of it. 

For me, thinking about “what comes next” is one way of committing to our shared future, and it makes it just a little bit easier to stick with the truly hard work of physical distancing. I hope it’s helpful to you as well.

Brad

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