Disgraced former President Trump could be a convicted felon by this weekend. But a guilty verdict is far from assured — and, even then, a prison sentence remains uncertain. 

• Prosecutors and Trump’s defense lawyers delivered closing arguments on Tuesday before the 12 jurors who will now decide Trump’s criminal fate. Trump’s team argued the whole case rests on Michael Cohen, and that he’s a skeevy liar nobody can believe. Prosecutors countered: You don’t have to like Michael Cohen, but his story is backed up by this document (and this one…and THIS one….) We can’t know what the jury will do, or how fast they’ll deliberate. But if you’ve been waiting years for Trump to see the inside of a jail cell, the odds are you’ll probably have to defer gratification a while longer.

• Trump is charged with 34 felony counts spanning 11 reimbursement payments to Michael Cohen. The jury has to consider and decide each charge separately. That means 34 separate verdicts. We’re likely to be waiting for a while on this deliberation. The jury could convict Trump across the board, or acquit him on all charges. But it’s also possible that they return a mix-and-match verdict. Guilty on some, acquitted on others, an inconclusive or “hung” verdict on others still. An acquittal on any charge means Trump defeats it forever. A “hung” jury means he can be retried for that charge. Any “guilty” verdicts put Justice Juan Merchan in control of Trump’s fate.  

• But the reality, as ever, is that Trump is no ordinary defendant…or, potentially, convict. If he loses, he’s sure to appeal. And while the judge could jail him pending that appeal, that’s super unlikely. An appeal will eat up more time until the election. If he wins the presidency, Trump’s sure to sue claiming that a sitting president can’t be jailed while in office. He’d be counting on the Supreme Court to back him up. And THAT could set up the nightmare authoritarian scenario: A president who’s awaiting jail the day his term ends. And that guy has NO incentive to ever leave office.

• There’s no roadmap because all of this is unprecedented. In another first today, the Biden campaign actually showed up at the courthouse to attack their opponent. The campaign dispatched Robert De Niro — a celebrity surrogate who knows a thing or two about wanna-be tough guys and showbiz mobsters — along with former police officers Michael Fanone and Harry Dunn, who talked about the Trump-inflicted violence of Jan. 6. This is new: Biden has avoided any comment or messaging around Trump’s legal problems. The White House is signaling that Joe Biden himself will speak out publicly after the verdict.

If Trump’s convicted, he’ll be a first-time offender with low-level felonies. Jail (several months or a year?) is possible, but so is house arrest or community service. Will Trump wind up in a  jumpsuit picking up trash in Central Park just steps from Trump Tower?

Know some undecided voters, but don’t know how to convince them to show up this election year? Who are we kidding, of course you do. But fear not! Pod Save America host Jon Favreau is back with season 4 of The Wilderness, to give you the insights you need to persuade the persuadables in your life. With the help of some of the smartest strategists, pollsters, and organizers in politics, Jon explores the thought processes of voters who are slipping away and dives into what we can do between now and November to secure our democracy. 

New episodes of The Wilderness drop every other Sunday in the Pod Save America feed - And next day on the Pod Save America YouTube channel!

Israeli Defense Force tanks pushed into central Rafah on Tuesday, taking control of key infrastructure and territory in the heart of the city. Stll, U.S. officials refused to say that the operation — or the Israeli strike that killed at least 37 Palestinians, most of whom were sheltering in tents — crossed a “red line” for offensive operations the U.S. says it won’t support. American officials called the airstrike “tragic” and “horrific.” But White House and other American officials continue to brand Israel’s Rafah operation as “limited,” and not in violation of their call for no “major ground operation” in the city. 

While the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues, the U.S.-built pier meant to direct aid into the territory has ceased operating. The Pentagon blamed rough seas and high tides for damaging the pier and causing some ships to become unmoored. It’s unclear when the pier will function again, though it’s been plagued by logistical problems from the start. Initial aid shipments were heavily looted, either by black marketers or hungry, desperate people. The U.S. military said it plans to tow the pier to a nearby port in Israel for repairs, and then reinstall it in Gaza next week. 

Former South Carolina Gov. and GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley did a PR tour in Israel, where she signed “finish them!” on IDF artillery shells. A gross and crass gesture — and yet the moment also served up a lesson in the ease of spreading misinformation. This tweet accusing Haley of signing shells about to fall on Rafah, a city filled with Palestinian civilians, was viewed 3.5 million times and retweeted by prominent figures on the left. Haley was in fact on Israel’s northern border, where Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah. Either way, still pretty bad!

Special Counsel Jack Smith’s attempt to gag Trump was denied by the Trump-appointed judge overseeing the Mar-a-Lago documents case. Smith sought the order to stop Trump from telling brazen lies about a supposed FBI plot to assassinate Trump. 

Trump endorsed Rep. Bob Good’s (R-VA) primary opponent, saying Good is “BAD FOR VIRGINIA AND BAD FOR THE USA!” That’s especially bad for Good (sorry, we had to), considering he’s the chair of the MAGA-boosting House Freedom Caucus, and went all the way to Manhattan with other Trump sycophants last week to shill for the boss!  

Former U.S. Capitol Police are starting to fan out to swing states for Joe Biden. Officers Sgt. Aquilino Gonell and Harry Dunn, who both fought rioters on Jan. 6, will appear in Nevada for Biden on Wednesday to talk about defending democracy and law enforcement. Cops4Biden lol okay we’ll take it?

MAGA Republicans in Wisconsin are launching a second attempt to recall the Republican Speaker of the state assembly, Robin Vos. Organizers, including a former state Supreme Court Justice Vos appointed to investigate stolen election conspiracy theories, are angry that the speaker refused to impeach the chair of Wisconsin’s elections commission. 

Supporters of the Jan. 6 riot tried to drive a memorial stone honoring rioters who died at the Capitol through Arlington National Cemetery on Memorial Day. The stone honored QAnon conspiracy theorist and insurrectionist Ashli Babbitt — who was killed by Capitol Police after breaking into the building — and others. The supporters were stopped by cemetery personnel. 

Today's newsletter is brought to you by Smileactives.

Crazy question: does the news ever leave you feeling stressed? In the hustle and bustle of work and trying to be an informed citizen and active member of your community, do you end up putting yourself last on the list? Why not carve out some time for a little self-care? Whether you're looking to whiten your teeth, maintain a healthy smile, or enhance your overall oral care routine, Smileactives has you covered.

Achieving a bright and radiant smile has never been easier, thanks to Smileactives Pro Whitening Gel. Say goodbye to messy and time-consuming whitening strips or uncomfortable trays. Simply add the gel to your toothpaste and brush as normal to achieve your new, confident smile!
 

Safe and Effective formulas, fast results with up to 5 shades whiter in 7 days, and a 60-day money-back guarantee, Smileactives is a smile game-changer! And for a limited time, Smileactives is offering Buy One, Get One Free on their Introductory Pro Whitening Gel. To claim, visit smileactives.com/NL and the discount will be automatically applied at checkout.

A North Carolina man who won $100,000 on a scratch-off lottery ticket made good on a years-old pact with a friend and split his winnings. “We are both men of our word,” Walter Bonds said of his friend and lottery winner, Curtis Hudson. 

A cool-headed, off-duty paramedic saved a woman’s life with CPR when she collapsed after dancing at the Loft Pub in Victoria, British Columbia to the Miley Cyrus song “Flowers.” We’ve all been there! 

A solid majority of Americans, including 59% of independents, support holding fossil fuel companies legally accountable for climate change, according to a new poll. Meanwhile, about half support criminal charges against Big Oil for the deaths caused by global warming. Imagine if there were some way to translate majority opinion into government action!