May 24, 2024
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Is New York In Play? Trump Appeals To Democrats At South Bronx Rally With Law-And-Order Message As Violent Crime in New York Rose 39 Percent In 2022
By Robert Romano
“Sadly, in recent years we have also seen our city destroyed by bad radical left, pro-crime policy that virtually everyone — Republican, Democrat, independent, everyone — you all know it's a disaster. You know the names of these lunatic policies. No cash bail: somebody kills somebody, go out, no bail… don't worry go out and kill a couple of more people. Defund our great police, defund the police. Sanctuary cities. Release violent repeat offenders from jail.”
That was former President Donald Trump campaigning in the South Bronx in New York City on May 23, laying out a law-and-order message with an appeal to the city’s residents that largely vote Democratic in federal, state and local elections. Except for Staten Island, which leans Republican, the rest of the city — Manhattan, Bronx, Brooklyn and Queens — is almost exclusively run by Democrats.
Trump added, “Joe Biden supports all of this insanity and much more, but millions of people across New York know it's crazy.”
Only occasionally is New York’s Democratic voting habit broken. One has to go back to George Pataki winning the governorship in 1994 and the mayoralty of Rudy Giuliani after he won the election in 1993 amid high crime for the last time Republicans had any hand in winning state and local executive elections. Both went on to be reelected for their offices in subsequent elections.
And one has to go back to 1984 for the last time a Republican won the state in the presidential election, when Ronald Reagan did it in his re-election bid in the 49-state sweep against Walter Mondale.
Now, 40 years later, in 2024, Trump is setting his sights on the Empire State where he was born and raised, seeking to expand the electoral map and force President Joe Biden to play a bit of defense in the Electoral College.
Besides sticky inflation, which is felt by the American people nationally, New Yorkers are also feeling a significant rise in violent crimes reported — a 39.2 percent increase in 2022 statewide, from 308 per 100,000 residents in 2021 to 429 per 100,000 residents in 2022, according to the latest Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Crime Data Explorer data available.
That’s the highest level since 2007, when it was 414 per 100,000 residents at a time when violent crimes were still in significant decline from their 1990 peak of 1,181 per 100,000 residents.
That gives readers an idea of how bad things had to get in New York for Republicans to even have a shot at winning statewide and New York City races — it’s when enough Democrats break ranks and say enough is enough.
The crime issue is what almost catapulted former U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y) to the governor’s mansion in 2022, who overperformed in the race with 46.8 percent of the vote, the best a Republican had done since Pataki won his third term in 2002 with 49.4 percent of the vote, and only the first time since 2014 that the Republican candidate cracked 40 percent in the election, when Bob Astorino ran. Zeldin’s run was also instrumental in House Republicans picking up four seats in 2022 Congressional midterms in winning the majority.
Certainly, majorities in Congress are a part of the Trump’s calculation as he campaigns in New York. Even if he cannot win the state, his presence can certainly help Republicans running locally to hold or even pick up seats.
But to get there requires the candidate appealing across party lines. Near the top of the speech, Trump, noting the current Democratic officeholders governing the state, stated, “it doesn't matter whether they're Democrats or Republicans because this is about our city and our country, and it's really about the people and in this case the people of New York City, New York State.”
That is a message which can resonate beyond New York, sending a strong signal to true swing voters everywhere. It’s also a gamble, but after a rally in New Jersey, and more planned for Virginia and Minnesota, appears to be one that Trump is willing to take.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Video: THE BRONX LOVES TRUMP
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNxxcFCLFIA
New Latinos Entering the Voter Pool are a Lot Less Likely to be Democrats – Here’s Why That Matters
By Manzanita Miller
New polls show a marked shift away from President Joe Biden among Latino voters compared to 2020, with the latest New York Times poll showing former President Donald Trump leading among Hispanics by six points, representing a nearly 40-point swing away from Biden compared to 2020.
However, a natural question is how much of this shift is disillusioned former Biden supporters, and how much may be entirely new voters entering the voter pool with a decided lack of loyalty to Biden and Democrats?
While it is likely a little of both, a new data report from BSP Research and UnidosUS argues that newer voters entering the voter pool – either formerly non-voters or younger voters who were ineligible to vote previously – skew heavily independent and are less likely to be Democrats.
The UnidosUS report also mentions the relative “youth” of the Latino vote, that is, every election cycle a significant number of newly eligible Latino voters come of age and are added to the voter pool. According to the report, around 1 in 4 Latino voters this election could be new voters, and almost 40 percent of the Latino electorate this November will be new voters compared to the 2016 election.
UnidosUS and BSP Research found that newer registered Latinos are much younger than the voter population as a whole, with a full 80% of newer voters clocking in at age 39 or younger. Newer voters are also significantly more likely have been born in the US according to the research.
With that established American identity appears to come a reluctance to embrace the Democratic Party, and an inclination toward political independence. The UnidosUS data found that new registered Latino voters are significantly less likely to identify as Democrats compared to established voters. Just 45 percent of newer voters identity as Democrats, compared to 59 percent of more established (and usually older) voters, a fourteen point difference.
According to the research the Republican gap between younger and older voters is much smaller, just five percentage points, with 18 percent of newer voters saying they are Republicans compared to 23 percent of older voters. The data shows a swell of younger voters are declaring themselves independent voters, with 36% of newer voters identifying as independent or non-partisan while only 18 percent of established voters say the same.
The UnidosUS report concludes with a somber warning to Democrats: “trends in partisanship appear confined to a Democratic bleed into independence and non-partisanship, a long-standing if growing feature among younger and Latino voters.”
The research is valuable in that it highlights the fact that as whole, the Latino vote is younger than other voter populations, and that as newer voters are added into the voter pool, they are increasingly independent.
That said, while the Latino vote is indeed shifting away from Democrats as the voter pool changes, there are also likely gains for Republicans among disenchanted former Democrats.
The latest Times poll shows that while Trump’s numbers with Latinos have increased only slightly since last October giving him a current six-point edge over Biden – that is a massive swing compared to 2020 when Trump lost Latinos by 33 points.
The Times poll shows that collectively, Latinos are very dissatisfied with Biden and give him an approval rating of minus 23 points, as well as deeply negative approval ratings on the economy, immigration, and foreign policy. It is worth keeping in mind that the bulk of these negative ratings may be stemming from newer Latino voters, while more established and older Latino voters may remain more loyal to Biden in November. However, it is hard to ague that the entire shift is among new voters.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/05/new-latinos-entering-the-voter-pool-are-a-lot-less-likely-to-be-democrats-heres-why-that-matters/