Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** May 23, 2024
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Emerging Threats to the U.S. Financial System
In early 2021, a group of investors on Reddit poured their money into video game retailer GameStop. As the stock price shot up, some people made millions, and the hedge funds had some very bad days.
This story led researchers at RAND to start thinking about how understudied trends could impact the U.S. financial system. Ultimately, they identified four emerging threats: social engineering via memes; attacks on the algorithms that are used to trade stocks; deepfakes; and bond dumping. None of these threats will bring the financial system to its knees anytime soon, but that may not be the point. All of them can still make the markets seem a little less safe, a little less secure.
It comes down to trust, says RAND economist Tobias Sytsma: "Trust is actually critical to how markets function. When you start to lose that, you run the risk of greater market volatility and greater market losses." And these losses won't just affect markets and financial institutions; they will impact people's life savings, households, and society as a whole.
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The U.S. Foreign Service’s Centennial Anniversary
Tomorrow marks the 100th anniversary of the modern Foreign Service. Over the last century, U.S. diplomats abroad have done everything from replacing Americans' lost passports, to helping U.S. businesses succeed in foreign markets, to keeping U.S. leaders informed about conditions on the ground. This day-to-day work is not glamorous, write RAND's John Tefft, Charles Ries, and William Courtney, "but it is vital to the long-term success of American foreign policy." They should know. All three are former U.S. ambassadors; they collectively have more than 100 years of experience in the Foreign Service. This institution is as essential as ever, they say, enabling the United States to "adapt to the world of the future and make the most of it."
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How Teachers Feel About Restrictions on Discussing Race and Gender
As of spring 2024, 20 states have enacted restrictions on how teachers can discuss so-called "divisive concepts," such as race, gender identity, and sexual orientation. These restrictions affect roughly 1.3 million teachers and 20 million students. Recent RAND research has examined how educators feel about the restrictions. Among the findings, most teachers and principals oppose these policies, and very few educators think the limitations are good for student learning. However, these policies are having an impact: They appear to be influencing teachers' decisions about whether and how to teach about race, gender, and LGBTQ+ issues.
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** RAND Recommends
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- To help inform the development of effective homelessness policy, a new RAND tool provides data on unsheltered populations in three Los Angeles neighborhoods: Hollywood, Skid Row, and Venice.
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- Pardee RAND Graduate School is hosting two virtual webinars so that prospective applicants can learn more about its new Master of National Security Policy program, which will begin this fall.
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- RAND's Kristen Gunness told Politico why, despite U.S. warnings, Beijing isn't likely to walk away from the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia anytime soon.
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** Analyzing the Rise of AI: Insights from RAND
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AI tools are evolving quickly, and decisionmakers are grappling with how to maximize the potential benefits and minimize the risks. Insights from RAND can help. Our researchers have been studying how AI will affect national security, the economy, health care, and much more.
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