Daily News Brief

May 20, 2024

Top of the Agenda

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, named (WaPo) the country’s First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber as acting president and tasked him with ensuring new presidential elections within fifty days, state media reported. Yesterday’s helicopter crash killed President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and several others on board. 

The crash raised new uncertainties in the country at a time of escalating regional violence. Just days before the crash, Washington and Tehran held talks through intermediaries to try to lower the threat of wider conflict in the Middle East, the New York Times reported. Iran as well as Lebanon and Pakistan declared official periods of mourning following Raisi’s death. Raisi’s governance reinforced Khamenei’s efforts (FT) to cement the influence of hardline conservatives. Raisi was a judicial official before becoming president. In 2019, he was sanctioned by the United States, which cited his role in “extrajudicial executions” in 1988 and suppression of dissent in 2009. He had been viewed as a potential successor to Khamenei, who turned eighty-five last month. 

Analysis

“Islamic Republic post-Ebrahim Raisi: No change in terms of foreign or domestic policies, possible ramifications for succession given that he was one of the top contenders for Supreme Leader, [and] infighting amongst hardliners likely over who will take the helm of the presidency,” the Atlantic Council’s Holly Dagres posts on X.

“[Under Raisi] we lost a generation of political minds and activists who could have been important players in Iranian society,” the Center for Human Rights in Iran’s Hadi Ghaemi told the New York Times.

This 2021 Foreign Affairs piece by Texas A&M University’s Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar discusses why Raisi’s election marked the triumph of the hardliners.

Pacific Rim

Lai Ching-te called for the joint pursuit of peace (VOA) with China in his inaugural address as president today, while denouncing threats from Beijing and pledging to raise Taiwan’s “defense awareness.” Lai proposed that Taiwan and China resume educational and tourism exchanges. He also promised to deepen international cooperation and to “continue using Taiwan’s democratic vitality as a force for good.”

For Foreign Affairs, Nick Frisch discusses Lai’s balancing act with China.

China: Beijing is launching an anti-dumping probe (FT) into imports of a widely used plastic in the consumer electronics and automotive industries from the United States, European Union, Japan, and Taiwan, its commerce ministry announced yesterday. The investigation comes after the United States announced new tariffs on Chinese clean technology last week. 

South and Central Asia

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal survived (PTI) the latest confidence vote after two government officials were accused of misappropriating funds. He received 157 votes in the 275-member House of Representatives in today’s vote.

Kyrgyzstan/Pakistan: Pakistan’s foreign ministry summoned (Reuters) Kyrgyzstan’s top diplomat over the weekend after Pakistani students were beaten in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek. Kyrgyz police were mobilized to stop the violence and said it was prompted by foreigners attacking locals.

Middle East and North Africa

International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan announced today that he applied (FT) for arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. Khan said he has “reasonable grounds to believe” the five men bear “criminal responsibility” for war crimes and crimes against humanity in relation to Hamas’s October 7 attack in Israel and the war in the Gaza Strip. If ICC judges approve the warrants, they could result (NYT) in arrests if the named leaders travel to ICC member countries. Neither Israel nor Hamas immediately commented; Netanyahu said in April that Israel “will never accept any attempt by the ICC to undermine its inherent right of self-defense.”

CFR expert David Scheffer tells NPR what it means if the ICC issues a warrant for Netanyahu.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Authorities arrested around fifty people including three U.S. citizens, a spokesperson for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) army told Reuters. Gunfire was heard early yesterday morning in the capital. The U.S. ambassador to the DRC said she was “very concerned” by reports of alleged U.S. citizen involvement and pledged to cooperate with investigations “to the fullest extent.”

South Africa: Former President Jacob Zuma cannot stand (Bloomberg) for legislative elections next week due to a prior criminal conviction, the country’s Constitutional Court ruled today. Zuma’s newly formed party poses a threat to take votes from the ruling African National Congress. 

For the Africa In Transition blog, CFR expert Michelle Gavin explains how the United States should consider its South Africa relationship as both countries head into elections. 

Europe

Speaker Shalva Papuashvili is a member of the ruling Georgian Dream party, which has a large enough majority (Kyiv Independent) to override a veto announced on Saturday by President Salome Zourabichvili. The bill in question would require registration (NYT) for nongovernmental groups and media outlets receiving more than 20 percent of funding from foreign sources and is similar to a law that Russia has used to stamp out dissent. 

On this episode of The World Next Week, CFR’s Robert McMahon and Carla Anne Robbins discuss popular protest against the “foreign agents” bill.

Argentina/Spain: Spain recalled (Buenos Aires Times, AFP) its ambassador to Argentina yesterday and demanded a public apology after Argentine President Javier Milei called Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s wife “corrupt” at a right-wing rally in Madrid. The European Union’s foreign policy leader also condemned Milei’s comments.

Americas

Opponents to incumbent Luis Abinader conceded (AP) early in the result tally period after a preliminary count coming out of yesterday’s election showed Abinader winning almost 60 percent of votes. 

Mexico: At least fourteen people have died in attacks (AP) on political candidates in the southern state of Chiapas in recent days, local authorities and candidates said yesterday. Drug cartels have battled for control in the area. At least 134 people have been killed countrywide, twenty-four of them candidates, in politically motivated attacks this year, watchdog Data Civica tallied.

United States

President Joe Biden warned (NYT) of risks to U.S. democracy in a commencement speech at Morehouse College on Sunday that also addressed the Israel-Hamas war. Biden said his administration was working toward an immediate cease-fire in Gaza. After protests regarding the war flared on U.S. college campuses in recent weeks, Biden’s Morehouse appearance was not interrupted; Morehouse said discussions between White House officials and students, faculty, and alumni helped shape his speech.  

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