View this post on the web at [link removed]

Like immigration, internal migration has always been an important part of the American story. From the pioneer push westward to the waves of African Americans moving from south to north, the country has often been in the midst of some kind of major population shift.
As many readers probably already know, we are currently experiencing another of these migratory shifts—from Democratic blue states like California, Illinois and New York to Republican red ones like Florida, Texas and Utah. And as with past migrations, those on the move are often seeking new opportunities and a better life. What’s different this time, however, is that the primary driver behind this red shift is ultimately political rather than just social or economic. Furthermore, this latest migratory wave doesn’t just involve individuals and families; it is also very much a story of businesses large and small pulling up stakes and relocating. 
While it’s easy to overestimate the importance of this shift, the statistics from the Census Bureau and elsewhere [ [link removed] ] are pretty eye-popping. For example, in the three years following the onset of COVID (from April 2020 to July 2023), the two biggest winners of this interstate migration, Florida and Texas, picked up a respective 819,000 and 656,000 people from other states, while the biggest losers, California and New York, lost 1.2 million and 800,000 people to other states. And while there are a few blue (or purple) states among the ten biggest population gainers (most notably Washington) and a few red states among the ten biggest losers (such as Louisiana), the bulk of gainers are red and the losers blue.
At the same time, a parade of Fortune 500 and other firms has been red-shifting, too. For instance, bluest of the blue California has been losing some of its corporate crown jewels [ [link removed] ], often to Texas. In the past three years, big companies—ranging from tech firms like HP and Oracle, to financial services providers like Charles Schwab, to automaker Tesla—have moved their headquarters from the Golden State to the Lone Star State. In Illinois [ [link removed] ], important companies including Caterpillar, Boeing and Citadel have left the state in the past few years for redder climes. Meanwhile, many financial services firms have deserted New York, including AllianceBernstein and Elliott Management, both of which have decamped to Florida. Indeed, according to a recent report compiled by Bloomberg [ [link removed] ], companies managing nearly a trillion dollars in assets have left New York and, to a lesser extent, California for other states. 
For both businesses (and their employees) and individuals, the reasons for moving often overlap, with many seeking relief from high taxes, bloated and overbearing government, ever-rising housing and energy prices, unchecked crime and failing schools. By contrast, red states tend to have lower taxes, more right-to-work laws, less red tape and other barriers to housing construction and business formation, better infrastructure and better schools. COVID has only accelerated this trend, as people also left blue states to escape lockdowns and school closures, often taking advantage of the widespread adoption of new remote-work policies to bring their jobs with them.
With the pandemic behind us, this red shift may slow a bit, but it is unlikely to end anytime soon. For starters, the Republican governors and legislatures that run red states are not only continuing but doubling down on the policies that have made their states so attractive to so many people and businesses. For instance, at the beginning of 2024, 12 red states kicked off the new year with an income tax cut [ [link removed] ]. Meanwhile, nine red states [ [link removed] ] have expanded educational choice so far this year.
Perhaps more importantly, the future direction of the American economy and even much of American society will continue to play to red states’ strengths. For instance, as the gig economy continues to expand, states with less powerful labor unions, fewer licensing requirements and fewer barriers to business formation will likely grab a larger share of this growing and dynamic group of Americans. Likewise, businesses will continue to invest more in places where labor is more flexible, taxes lower and regulations less onerous.
By contrast, most blue states continue to double down on policies that make it harder to attract new residents or make the existing ones stay. For example, even though California, Illinois and New York already have confiscatory tax rates that have driven many residents to leave, all three states [ [link removed] ] are considering tax increases. In addition, most blue states continue to appease public-sector unions, which demand civil service protections and pension and retirement benefits that make government much less efficient and much more expensive.
In short, many blue states continue to embrace a mid-20th century social and economic model, in which an urban, unionized workforce and an active government both play a large role in the economy. By contrast, red states are more attuned to the realities of today’s more dynamic economy.
America’s federalist system, with essentially 50 different countries, offers us a diversity of governance choices or “laboratories of democracy.” The idea, of course, is that success in one place will spread elsewhere, even nationally. And that often happens: After all, welfare reform did not come to Capitol Hill until it had first been tried in Michigan and then other states.
So far, however, most (though not all) blue states have resisted making any of the important changes needed to reverse the exodus. Many blue-state governors and legislatures may be hoping for a federal bailout—either directly, as happened during COVID, or indirectly in the form of restoring the full state and local tax deduction—that will subsidize their inefficient governing model. Others may ultimately feel that stagnant or even falling population and slower economic growth are a price worth paying in exchange for continuing certain policies.
But if the red shift continues, some blue states will inevitably start to change. Some of those changes may already be starting. For example, Democrats in Connecticut just cut income taxes [ [link removed] ], and the Democratic governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, has shown some flexibility on fracking [ [link removed] ] and may even be open to a school choice program [ [link removed] ].
Meanwhile, the influx of blue-state refugees into red states could alter the political dynamics in the latter, very much like the influx of people from California to Oregon and Washington in the 1980s and ’90s shifted the latter two states from red to blue. Recently, a friend told me of a politically progressive work colleague who had moved to Florida, claiming that she was going to devote herself to turning her new state blue. For her sake, she’d better hope she fails.
Meanwhile…
Just in case you think the Discourse editorial team does nothing but work, I’m happy to tell you that we all recently took a trip to The Phillips Collection [ [link removed] ] in Washington, D.C., to see Bonnard’s Worlds [ [link removed] ], a wonderful retrospective of French post-impressionist painter Pierre Bonnard. The exhibit collects more than 60 of his works, from early Paris street scenes to the almost dreamlike landscapes that have made him famous.
Bonnard came of age in the wake of van Gogh and Gauguin, and you can see their influence in his work. But Bonnard created a color intensity entirely his own; you can observe it in his portraits and domestic scenes, but especially in his landscapes, which simply glow in a way that no other artist’s work does.
The exhibit runs for another few weeks—until June 2. If you live in the Washington, D.C., area or plan to be visiting soon, I urge you to see it. But if you can’t make it in time, The Phillips offers an excellent virtual tour [ [link removed] ].
Latest Stories
Martin Gurri, “Scenes From a Global Struggle [ [link removed] ]”
Christopher M. Russo, “Demystifying the Federal Budget Process [ [link removed] ]”
Kenneth Rapoza, "Like It or Not, China Is the Green OPEC [ [link removed] ]"
Patrick Horan, “How To Stop Mission Creep at the Federal Reserve [ [link removed] ]”
Liya Palagashvili, “Celebrate Mother’s Day by Increasing the Availability of Flexible Work [ [link removed] ]”
Colleen Eren and Jared Feuer, “The New Oracles of Generative AI [ [link removed] ]”
John Mac Ghlionn, “Is ‘The Joe Rogan Experience’ Losing Its Edge? [ [link removed] ]”
From the Archives
Robert Tracinski, “The Constitution Isn’t Broken; We Are [ [link removed] ]”
Thomas Hoenig, “The Inflation Challenge [ [link removed] ]”
Daniel Kochis, “The Conservative Resurgence Across the Atlantic [ [link removed] ]”

Unsubscribe [link removed]?