This Issue: Will Trump & Biden change course on immigration amid Covid-19 pandemic?

Sen. Bernie Sanders suspended his presidential campaign this week, all but officially securing the Democratic Party's presidential nomination of former Vice President Joe Biden.

Now that we know who will most likely be the nominees from the two major parties, the national discussion should shift to contrasting what a Biden presidency would look like compared to Pres. Trump's second term. We somewhat know what to expect from both candidates. There may be little reason to think that a Trump second term would look much different than his first term or that a Biden presidency wouldn't resemble Obama's eight years in office.

But there is a wildcard. The Covid-19 pandemic has transformed what was a red-hot economy just a few months ago to one that looks more like what Obama/Biden inherited in January 2009 -- sky-high unemployment and economic uncertainty.

As of early-April, here's where the two candidates stood on the major immigration issues BEFORE the Covid-19 pandemic . . .

LEGAL IMMIGRATION

In pursuit of the Democratic Party's nomination, Biden pushed for a massive expansion of legal immigration, saying last August, "we could afford to take in a heartbeat another two million people."

Trump pushed for immigration moderation and reduction as a candidate in 2016, but he's struck a more expansionist tone in his rhetoric over the last two years. His son-in-law, Jared Kushner, was working on legislation before the pandemic that would have locked in the current legal immigration flow of more than 1 million per year. And Trump has been an advocate for expanding guest-worker programs, even during the ongoing health crisis while economic experts predict unemployment to exceed 10%. Although, the Trump Administration did pause an expansion of the H-2B, low-skilled guest worker program in light of the pandemic.

Prior to the health crisis, I had little confidence that either candidate would support permanent reductions. But the pandemic does change things, and we'll need to see if Trump and Biden change course as millions of Americans file for unemployment.

E-VERIFY

While neither Trump nor Biden has come out against requiring all employers to use E-Verify, neither will likely push for standalone legislation to mandate it.

Both candidates would likely support an E-Verify mandate as part of a broader compromise. Unfortunately, Trump failed to include E-Verify as part of his four-pronged DACA solution in his first two years, and his Administration de-emphasized it in its FY2021 budget.

On the campaign trail, Biden hasn't mentioned E-Verify or worksite verification and has never indicated that he sees a problem with illegal workers taking U.S. jobs.

AMNESTY

Both Trump and Biden support amnesty, but to varying degrees.

Trump has openly supported amnesty for DACA-eligible illegal aliens -- a group of about 2 million. He could also be open to granting an amnesty to illegal-alien farmworkers, but has yet to publicly do so.

Biden supports amnesty for nearly the entire illegal-alien population of at least 11 million.

Biden is more likely to support looser qualification requirements, where Trump would likely support more stringent requirements and accompanying tighter enforcement.

ENFORCEMENT

While Trump has prioritized the removal of criminal illegal aliens, he hasn't shied away from the removal of non-criminal aliens who came into contact with Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers. And his administration has aggressively pursued legal action against sanctuary jurisdictions.

Under Biden, we would likely see a return to the Priority Enforcement Program enacted by the Obama Administration that focused solely on violent criminal aliens and turned a blind-eye to jurisdictions that obstruct immigration enforcement. He's also pledged a moratorium on all deportations within his first 100 days.

Furthermore, both candidates would have handled last summer's border surge quite differently. Trump enacted the Migrant Protection Protocols, more commonly known as the Remain in Mexico policy, requiring asylum seekers to await their court hearings in Mexico and thereby discouraging fraudulent claims and keeping them from having work permits to take U.S. jobs until their claims were declined.

Biden says he would "streamline the process", so asylum seekers could have their claims quickly adjudicated. He also supports expanding the pool of those who could claim credible fear and give them work permits while they wait in the United States for their hearing.

LONG WAY TO GO

Those are the top-level issues that you'll most likely see discussed and debated this fall. We, at NumbersUSA, have compared the two candidates on more specific policy positions. You can find those comparisons here:

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/elections/races/presidential/2020-presidential-hopefuls.html

There's still much to learn about what a Biden presidency would look like. The issue of immigration was barely mentioned during the more recent Democratic debates, and the earlier debates were dominated by Trump's handling of last year's border surge.

We've yet to hear from either Trump or Biden on whether their more established positions will change in response to the Covid-19 crisis. Unfortunately, we'll probably have to wait until later this summer when both Parties hold their nominating conventions,

Chris Chmielenski NumbersUSA Deputy Director