Daily News Brief

May 17, 2024

Top of the Agenda

Current global plans for critical mineral mining and recycling are projected to yield a shortage (WSJ) of the supplies needed for the green transition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in a new report today. The world’s current projected supply of lithium will meet only 50 percent of global demand, while copper will meet just over two-thirds of global demand by 2035, it said. 

The Paris-based agency called for increased efforts in mineral recycling and around $800 billion in mining investment by 2040 to bolster supplies. While the global appetite for solar panels, electric cars, and batteries is growing, “we cannot satisfy it without reliable and expanding supplies of critical minerals,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. Recycling techniques could reduce new supply requirements by up to 30 percent, the report said. It also warned (CNN) that many critical minerals are concentrated in a small number of countries, which adds to the risk of shortages. The IEA said that almost 95 percent of the projected supply growth for the type of graphite used in batteries is likely to come from China.

Analysis

“The United States should view critical minerals as a challenge that can be solved with diplomacy, investment, and innovation—not an excuse for delaying electrification and clean energy deployment,” the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Brian Deese and Columbia University’s Jason Bordoff write for Foreign Policy.

“When it comes to clean energy, the difficulty of successfully de-risking with respect to China has not been adequately understood by Western leaders or communicated to the public,” Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s Henry Sanderson writes for Foreign Affairs. “The West should keep in mind this tricky balancing act when designing a strategy for China.” 

Middle East and North Africa

Trucks entered the enclave (NYT) this morning as part of a multinational aid effort, U.S. Central Command said. The U.S. military built the floating pier and is providing logistical support for the operation, though no U.S. troops entered the Gaza Strip. The pier operation could scale (AP) up to 150 trucks of aid per day, U.S. officials said.

Bahrain: At its annual summit yesterday, the Arab League called for (NYT) a UN peacekeeping force in Gaza and the West Bank until a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can be established based on borders prior to the Arab-Israeli war of 1967. It also called for a timeline for such a negotiation. A UN spokesperson noted the organization’s forces do not enter active conflict zones. Washington has raised the prospect of some Arab countries participating in a multinational security force in Gaza once the war ends, the Financial Times reported earlier this week.

Pacific Rim

The Chinese government will relax (Bloomberg) mortgage rules and provide some $42 billion in central bank funding for firms to transform unsold homes into affordable housing. Unfinished and excess developments in the housing market have been dragging down (FT) the Chinese economy. The move was one of Beijing’s strongest yet to combat the issue, but some analysts say an even greater intervention than the one announced today is needed. 

China/Taiwan: China increased (Nikkei) its maritime activity ahead of Monday’s inauguration of Taiwan’s new president, adding patrols near the Taiwan-controlled Kinmen Islands and introducing new legal measures to punish “separatists” in the last week. An unofficial U.S. delegation is due to attend Lai Ching-te’s swearing-in, in line with longstanding practice. 

For the Asia Unbound blog, CFR expert David Sacks writes about how Taiwan’s democracy is thriving in China’s shadow.

South and Central Asia

A high-level Sri Lankan delegation will investigate (Reuters) reports that hundreds of Sri Lankans are fighting in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Social media recruitment campaigns are targeting former Sri Lankan military personnel with promises of payment and citizenship, the country’s defense ministry has said.

Myanmar: A delegation from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) met with the head of Myanmar’s junta this week to discuss an end to the country’s ongoing conflict, Myanmar state media reported yesterday. The bloc has kept open channels of communication with the junta, though it is divided over how much contact it should have with opposition rebels, the Diplomat reported.

For the Asia Unbound blog, CFR expert Joshua Kurlantzick discusses whether rebel gains could lead to the end of Myanmar’s junta.

Sub-Saharan Africa

U.S. officials are considering a deal to allow sanctioned Israeli businessman Dan Gertler to sell off his stakes in copper and cobalt mining operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the New York Times reported. Some unnamed U.S. officials said the deal would offer the Congo a “clean slate” to help fight corruption and for Western firms to invest in the country’s mining sector, where there is a large presence of Chinese firms. However, some human rights activists have criticized the plan. Gertler was sanctioned for corruption allegations, which he has long denied. He and the State Department did not immediately comment on the story. 

Chad: The country’s constitutional council yesterday officially declared (AP) President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno the victor of the May 6 presidential election, having won 61 percent of votes. It also rejected an appeal by his top challenger.

Europe

A North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) deployment of trainers to Ukraine could occur (NYT) “eventually, over time,” U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Charles Brown Jr. said yesterday. Ukrainian officials have asked NATO members to help them train recruits amid a shortage. Brown said that for now, such an effort inside Ukraine would put “a bunch of NATO trainers at risk.” The White House has previously been steadfast against sending U.S. troops to Ukraine, but French President Emmanuel Macron said in February that “nothing should be ruled out” when it comes to sending Western forces.  

This Backgrounder by CFR’s Jonathan Masters unpacks NATO. 

France: Police shot and killed (NYT) a man in the northern city of Rouen today after he tried to set fire to a synagogue and attacked police officers, authorities said. The town’s mayor said full details of the case were still being established, but “in all likelihood it is a deeply antisemitic act.” France has recorded a rise in antisemitic incidents amid the Israel-Hamas war.  

Americas

Centrist President Luis Abinader leads polls (Reuters) ahead of the election by a wide margin. Abinader governed the country as its tourism-heavy economy emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic, becoming one of the fastest-growing economies in Latin America.

Canada: Wildfires in the Alberta region have forced six thousand people to evacuate and could affect some of the country’s oil output at a time when the global market is sensitive to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia, the Financial Times reported. Research company Rystad Energy said an output of 2.1 million barrels per day could be at risk if fires worsen. 

United States

The 7–2 vote yesterday rejected (NYT) a legal challenge to the way the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is funded, which could have hampered the power of the independent agency. The court is due to rule on two other legal challenges to agency regulatory power in the coming weeks.

Friday Editor’s Pick

The BBC weaves together the past and present under-recognized roles that Chinese immigrants have played in making Yosemite National Park what it is today.

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