Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.

Wednesday's civil rights "victory" at SCOTUS comes with caveats
The U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday issued a ruling whose result will be that Louisiana uses a congressional map in this election that contains two majority-Black districts.

It was, Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman wrote, “a victory for Dems/civil rights groups.” And, on its face, it was. The map that will now be used for the upcoming election, passed as S.B. 8, was enacted as the result of earlier litigation where those civil rights groups successfully challenged an earlier map as violating Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act by diluting the votes of Black voters in the state. [...]

But, the legal outcome of Wednesday — if you peer just a bit below that surface — is more complicated. And the consequences, also, could be less of a “victory” for those “Dems/civil rights groups.”
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Biden doesn't want an audience for his debate with Trump. That's a mistake.
While both Biden and Trump have agreed in theory to debate, they still need to agree on the details, and the presence of a live audience seems to be a sticking point. (CNN has confirmed that "no audience will be present" at its debate.) Biden doesn't want one; Trump wrote on Truth Social that's because "Biden is supposedly afraid of crowds."

That's certainly not the reason. Biden, an inveterate glad-hander, loves nothing more than trying to win over a crowd with his accusations of "malarkey" and beaming chompers. It would be more accurate to say that Trump is afraid of not having a crowd. In fact, the Biden campaign is hoping to deprive him of one in order to throw him off his game.

There's logic to this thinking. Trump feeds off the energy of a crowd, and he's never more alive as a politician than when he's bantering back and forth with adoring fans at one of his rallies. A darkened stage with just him and Biden answering tough questions from a seasoned journalist would not be as much fun for him.

But the Biden campaign may be making a strategic error here. In fact, it's Biden who may have more to gain from having an audience at a presidential debate.
Did Michael Cohen’s Testimony Cement the Case Against Trump?
My reading of the transcript of Cohen’s testimony is that, credibility issues aside, he provided the testimony that closed the loop—but just barely.

Cohen testified that after a meeting with Weisselberg in which they agreed on a plan to falsely treat the reimbursements as payments for legal services, he and Weisselberg met with Trump at Trump Tower. Weisselberg told Cohen in Trump’s presence that “we’re going to pay you over 12 months.” Weisselberg said the payments would be made “like a legal service rendered.” Cohen testified that the payments were “designed to be” payment for future legal services but were actually “reimbursement of my money” paid to Daniels.

But Cohen didn’t quite make it clear that that was actually said in so many words during the meeting with Trump. Weisselberg showed Trump handwritten notes that roughly sketched out how the $130,000 reimbursement to Daniels would be doubled, “grossed up” because treating the payment as a legal expense rather than a reimbursement would require Cohen to pay taxes on it. Trump, Cohen says, “approved it.” [...]

If the jurors buy Cohen’s testimony, there’s more than enough evidence to support a conviction, but perhaps not enough to confidently predict one. Expect Trump’s attorneys to harp on the absence of a smoking gun in their closing argument, and to fault the prosecution for never having called the only witness who could theoretically corroborate Cohen’s testimony.
Trump allies call trial a ‘sham.’ Public opinion isn’t cooperating.
We regrettably don’t have a ton of recent polling as Trump’s trial has kicked into gear over the past couple of weeks. But what we do have is a new Yahoo News/YouGov survey released Tuesday, which showed new highs in the percentages of Americans who believe that:

Trump falsified business records to conceal a hush money payment to adult-film actress Stormy Daniels (52 percent). He committed a crime in doing so (47 percent). This crime warrants the indictment and trial (40 percent). The trial is worthy of their approval (49 percent) [...] Most of these numbers are right around 50 percent, which suggests the verdict remains out for many in the court of public opinion. But what’s also notable here is how few Americans take the opposite views.

Just 22 percent, for example, say Trump didn’t falsify business records. So while Americans said by a 19-point margin in March 2023 that Trump falsified the records, they now say so by a 30-point margin.
Israel war cabinet split looms as defence minister demands post-war Gaza plan
Gallant’s comments come after months of tension between the two men and recent reports in the Hebrew media that senior IDF officers had become concerned that the lack of an alternative to Hamas was forcing the IDF to return and fight in areas where they claimed Hamas had already been defeated, including northern Gaza, which has seen heavy fighting this week.

“As early as October 7, the military establishment said that it was necessary to work towards finding an alternative to Hamas,” Gallant said, adding, “the end of the military campaign is a political decision. The day after Hamas will only be achieved by actors who replace Hamas. This is first and foremost an Israeli interest.”

Gallant said that military planning “was not raised for a discussion, and worse, no alternative was brought in its place. A military-civilian regime in Gaza is a bad and dangerous alternative for the state of Israel. [...]

The comments by Gallant appeared to be the culmination of growing frustration with Netanyahu among Israel’s military leadership.
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Slovakia PM Robert Fico in stable but serious condition after shooting, doctors say
"During the night doctors managed to stabilise the patient's condition," Mr Kalinak, who is also the defence minister, said, adding: "Unfortunately the condition is still very serious as the injuries are complicated."

Previously, another Deputy Prime Minister, Tomas Taraba, told the BBC Mr Fico's surgery had gone "well" and "I guess that at the end he will survive".

Interior Minister Matus Sutaj Estoka described it as a politically motivated assassination attempt.

Mr Fico is a divisive figure at home - and controversial in the EU - for his calls to end military aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia.

But condemnation of the shooting has come from far and wide and it has been described as an attack on democracy.

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