Why doesn’t the BLS use real-time sales data for the homeownership component
of its price index? Long ago, technical economists decided that the imputed rental value was a better indicator. It may be for some purposes, but not for calculating changes in the current rate of inflation.
And there’s more. Several other areas of sharp price hikes in recent months reflect structural factors that are not affected by monetary policy at all. According to the BLS, the cost of motor vehicle insurance increased 22.8 percent over the past year. That reflects factors ranging from increased road rage to more
complex cars that are more expensive to repair. In the CPI, auto repair costs also rose by 7.6 percent over the past year. These sectoral price hikes have nothing to do with whether the economy as a whole is overheated. Likewise homeowner insurance, which got more expensive because insurers took big hits from floods and hurricanes and compensated by hiking rates generally. Hospital costs rose by 7.2 percent over a year ago, and drug costs by 6.0 percent. And price-gouging in rental housing has been driven by the growing number of absentee private
equity owners. All this reflects increasing concentration and market power in these sectors, not the overall strength of the economy. Strip out housing, where the index is misleading, and these other factors where price hikes are structural and opportunistic, and the real inflation rate is well below the nominal 3 percent. And there’s one other key trend which suggests that we may never get back to 2 percent inflation. That is global climate change. Climate change will increase costs in ways large and small, which have nothing to do with interest rates. Insurance costs will keep rising. Electricity costs are likely to rise, as we invest in a more reliable grid, and until we complete the transition to renewables. Building costs will increase as both homes and offices need to spend additional money on needed resiliance. In short, the Fed needs a more realistic target and the BLS needs better indicators, especially when it comes to housing costs. Economists and commentators need to start looking at the structural factors behind many price hikes.
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