Hi james,
If you’ve been following the political polls this election cycle you’d be forgiven for feeling a sense of unease. Time and again the numbers have shown that Biden and Trump are neck and neck with voters with the advantage more often than not tipping towards the MAGA kingpin. Thankfully, it looks like the storm clouds are finally breaking.
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For the first time in nearly a year, Decision Desk HQ’s polling average has Biden narrowly leading Trump, 45% to 44.9%. While that margin is far from a guaranteed victory, it is an encouraging sign that Trump’s fascist rhetoric and criminal court proceedings are finally starting to take a toll.
Best of all, barring some unforeseen catastrophe, Biden stands well-poised to increase this lead. The economy is strong and people are starting to feel the effects of the president’s steady-handed leadership. The stock market is hitting record highs and over 15 million jobs have been added to the economy. Unemployment has remained below 4% for the longest stretch in half a century. Inflation is low and wages are rising. Despite the breathless complaints from Fox News and the transparently mendacious insistences of Donald Trump, America’s economic prospects have never looked better.
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So on one hand you have Biden’s accomplished track record which speaks for itself. On the other you have Donald Trump, a man drowning in legal problems and bad press. The Stormy Daniels trial is receiving wall-to-wall news coverage from the mainstream media, giving Americans a daily reminder that one of the candidates is a disgusting, philandering crook.
Trump, who refuses to take the stand in court (because he’d inevitably end up perjuring himself), has failed to provide even the semblance of an explanation for his extramarital indiscretions, preferring instead to deny the affair outright. Given the mountains of evidence and robust witness testimonies already presented, nobody but the most diehard MAGA acolytes believe him at this point.
If, as it now seems likely, Trump is ultimately convicted his electoral prospects will plummet drastically. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 24% of Republicans voters say they will not vote for him if he’s convicted of a felony. If even a fraction of those voters follow through on their threat not to vote for a convicted Trump, it’ll crater his chances in November. He needs nothing less than a wholly unified GOP base to win.
And those are just Trump’s personal issues. The policy front is even worse for him. Abortion is poised to be the deciding issue this election and Trump is weighed down by his deeply unpopular repeal of Roe v. Wade. More and more Americans are waking up to the fact that he’ll gleefully implement a federal abortion ban if he wins. It falls to all of us to ensure that even more wake up.
Trump’s path to victory is narrow but it does exist. If too many people stay home on Election Day or if too many fall for his efforts to muddy the waters, we could end up crowning America’s first fascist dictator come January. The only foolproof way to stop that is by aggressively organizing.
You have a crucial role to play in all of this. Find one or two people who are on the fence and bring every bit of your powers to persuasion to bear. Each little ripple matters and if we accumulate enough of them we can ensure that a blue wave sweeps across the country this November.
Stay focused, stay energized.
Brian
Interview
Brian interviews the host of Strict Scrutiny, Leah Litman, about all of the cases that Trump is contending with right now – from NY to Georgia to Florida – as well as the Supreme Court looking into the question of presidential immunity.
Democracy Watch
Marc Elias discusses the ways in which we can have an impact ahead of the 2024 election.
The Legal Breakdown
Glenn Kirschner discusses reporting from the NYT and ProPublica that Trump may owe $100 million in unpaid taxes.
DON'T BE A MITCH FUND
The "Don't Be A Mitch" campaign is back after a hugely successful 2022 cycle, having raised $1.2 million for voter registration groups ahead of the midterm elections. This year, with a tough Senate map, we have no room for error. I put together a list of organizations from 5 key states (Montana, Ohio, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Missouri) that I think are best situated to ensure that the Senate stays in Democrats' hands. Any amount helps!
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