Boomer Esiason’s status as a prognosticator of the sports media business is now going through the roof.

On Wednesday, the former NFL star and recently departed CBS Sports analyst predicted the NFL would sell its pair of 2024 Christmas Day games to Netflix, by far the biggest player in streaming but heretofore a more limited player in live sports. 

The comment took many by surprise but now is potentially coming true. Puck reported late Thursday that “it looks like Netflix will wind up carrying the two NFL games.” The deal, should it happen, will mark a further escalation of the league’s strategy around the holiday, which began in earnest in 2022 and grew much more serious last year with a high-profile tripleheader that crushed the NBA’s rival slate of games in viewership. Fueled by that success, the NFL earlier this spring put these games up for auction, with bidding said to have started in the $50 million range. 

More Holidays, More Streamers

That the NFL is even playing on Christmas this year, however, is still noteworthy, as the holiday falls on a Wednesday, normally not a day of the week when the league plays. But the NFL is pursuing a series of precise scheduling moves to keep its Christmas presence. 

The developing deal with Netflix also signals a rising interest by the NFL to experiment with various streamers for many of its tentpole events. Over the past two years, the league has placed Black Friday and wild-card games on outlets such as Amazon and Peacock, and now operates the residential portion of NFL Sunday Ticket through YouTube. Given the unprecedented level of disruption across the media landscape, it’s smart business for the NFL to see where consumer patterns are heading while still keeping its core status on linear television. But for fans, it simply adds to the number of different streaming subscriptions one must have to see every game. 

With the 2024 NFL schedule projected to be released next week, a formal announcement of the Netflix pact could be days away.

From the Other Side of the Table

Netflix, meanwhile, is extending its pattern of more modest steps into live sports. The company—which has an industry-leading 269.6 million subscribers but is phasing out its practice of reporting such totals—has made a big multiyear play for the WWE and its weekly flagship show, Raw. 

But its other moves in live sports have largely been one-offs such as its acquisition of live rights to an upcoming Jake Paul–Mike Tyson fight. On the company’s last earnings call, Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos reiterated the more reserved sports programming strategy, saying, “We’re not anti-sports, but pro-profitable growth. And I think that’s the core of everything we do in all kinds of programming, including sports.”

Financial terms and production details for a live NFL presence on Netflix remain unknown. 

One of MLB’s most challenged teams in recent years is about to get a major boost in both talent and notoriety, thanks to the arrival of phenom rookie pitcher who is one of the highest touted prospects of his generation, has already made financial history, and before throwing a single big-league pitch has one of the buzziest social media followings of any MLB player. 

The Pirates have called up prospect Paul Skenes, last year’s No. 1 pick in the MLB draft, and he will make his first major league start Saturday against the Cubs. The star of last year’s College World Series championship team at LSU and the tournament’s most outstanding player, expectations have only grown since then for Skenes. Since he completed his college career and was selected by Pittsburgh, Skenes secured a $9.2 million signing bonus that beat the prior league record by nearly 10%. He then backed up those expectations by posting a 0.99 ERA so far this year in the minor leagues and striking out 45 batters in 27.1 innings. 

Beyond simply racking up statistics, Skenes has captured the attention of fans in part through frequent social media sharing of game video of his electric fastball reaching 100 miles per hour and his wipeout slider. His online fame is further burnished by his relationship with girlfriend Olivia Dunne, a star LSU gymnast and also a national champion, who has a combined TikTok and Instagram following of more than 13 million—as well as the status as one of the leading figures for college name, image, and likeness rights. 

Some news stories about the promotion of Skenes from MiLB to the majors have led with Dunne, and a TikTok clip chronicling his finding out about being called up has generated more than three million views. 

A Team in Need

The arrival of Skenes is already giving a sizable jolt to a Pirates organization that has frequently struggled on the field, and to a fan base increasingly wary of the financial commitment of owner Bob Nutting to competing. Since the team’s last playoff season, in 2015, the Pirates have posted just one winning year. Despite recent moves to solidify both local broadcast coverage and the area around PNC Park, the Pirates still have MLB’s second-smallest payroll at less than $83 million. 

The debut of Skenes will be carried nationally on the MLB Network, and locally, asking prices for tickets start at $40 for lower-level seats, and quickly move into triple digits. For Friday’s game, many of those same seats are comparatively selling for about half as much.

“Skenes’ arrival feels like Day 1 for the Pirates. A re-set. A new beginning for a crappy franchise,” wrote Pittsburgh Tribune-Review columnist Mark Madden. “Skenes is all Pittsburgh is talking about. It’s everywhere. We know exactly what he is. Skenes offers a rare, legitimate ray of hope for the Pirates.”