Daily News Brief
April 09, 2020
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Top of the Agenda
OPEC, Russia to Discuss Possible Truce in Oil Price War
Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia will meet via videoconference today to weigh a possible truce (FT) in an oil price war that has shaken the global energy sector.
 
Oil prices plummeted after Russia and Saudi Arabia called off a pact to cap production last month. Washington urged Moscow and Riyadh to make a new agreement to reduce output by 10 to 15 percent of global supplies, while the two signaled that the United States should also participate (Reuters) in output cuts. Amid price and demand meltdowns, the U.S. Department of Energy projected that the United States will become a net oil importer (Politico) in the third quarter of 2020.
Analysis
The looming shortage of remaining storage means the stakes are high for a major agreement among the world’s largest oil producers to throttle back in order to prevent global storage from filling to excess. It also means that oil production reductions are inevitable, if only because some producers will be thwarted by lack of places to store their oil,” writes CFR’s Amy Myers Jaffe.

“If it does join cuts, Russia wants all others involved as well, and rejects the idea that price-induced supply drops — like those under way in the US — should count,” Derek Brower, David Sheppard, Anjli Raval, and Gregory Meyer write for the Financial Times.

Pacific Rim
Singapore Virus Cases Rise Despite Lockdown
Singapore reported 142 new coronavirus infections on Wednesday, its highest daily total (FT),  days after announcing a strict lockdown. Dozens of the new cases are linked to crowded dormitories for foreign workers.
 
CFR’s Tom Frieden describes the new normal societies must embrace until a vaccine for the new coronavirus disease, COVID-19, is developed.

South and Central Asia
Islamic State Claims Rocket Attack on U.S. Base in Afghanistan
Five rockets hit (Reuters) the Bagram airfield in Afghanistan, the U.S. military said. No casualties were reported, and the self-proclaimed Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack.
 
India, Pakistan: In March, both India and Pakistan staged more attacks (Reuters) in the disputed Kashmir region than at any other point in at least two years, according to official data from both countries.
 
CFR’s Global Conflict Tracker traces recent events in Kashmir.

Middle East and North Africa
Saudi-Led Coalition Declares Yemen Cease-Fire
The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen’s war declared a two-week cease-fire (BBC) and said it supported UN efforts to negotiate a resolution to the conflict.
 
This CFR Backgrounder looks at the crisis in Yemen.
 
Iraq: Iraq’s president named chief intelligence officer Mustafa al-Kadhimi the country’s new prime minister–designate (National), the third such designation (Reuters) in ten weeks.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Al-Shabab Leader Killed in U.S. Air Strike
A U.S. air strike in southern Somalia killed senior al-Shabab leader (VOA) Yusuf Jiis, the U.S. military and a Somali intelligence official said.
 
DRC: Presidential Chief of Staff Vital Kamerhe (Reuters) was arrested after testifying in an anticorruption probe. President Felix Tshisekedi campaigned on pledges to clean up corruption.

Europe
Irish Parties Ready Coalition Deal
Irish center-right parties Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are expected to announce a plan to form a coalition (Reuters) for the first time in the country’s history. Such a coalition would still need the support of at least one other party or eight independent lawmakers to reach a majority.
 
EU: The European Union’s top court that ruled Poland must immediately suspend (NYT) a Supreme Court chamber established in 2017 that has strong powers to sanction judges. Poland may face fines if it fails to comply within a month. 

Americas
Washington Reportedly Tells Firms to Avoid Sending Gas to Venezuela
U.S. officials told firms that have energy swap agreements with Venezuela to avoid sending gasoline to the country even amid chronic shortages there, according to a Reuters report. The UN human rights chief and U.S. lawmakers have urged the White House to ease sanctions on Venezuela as it faces the coronavirus.
 
Brazil: Health authorities said they enlisted a local supplier (Reuters) to make ventilators after an order of fifteen thousand from China fell through.

United States
Sanders Ends Presidential Campaign
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders announced he is ending his presidential campaign (WaPo), leaving former Vice President Joe Biden the presumptive Democratic nominee. Sanders plans to remain on primary ballots in order to use delegate counts to push for more progressive positions in the Democratic platform.
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