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77% OF TOP CLIMATE SCIENTISTS THINK 2.5°C OF WARMING IS COMING—AND
THEY’RE HORRIFIED  
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Olivia Rosane
May 8, 2024
Common Dreams
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_ "I expect a semi-dystopian future with substantial pain and
suffering for the people of the Global South," one expert said. _

Scientists engage in civil disobedience on the steps of the Congress
of Deputies in Madrid, Spain on April 6, 2022. , (Photo: Scientist
Rebellion)

 

Nearly 80% of top-level climate scientists expect that global
temperatures will rise by at least 2.5°C by 2100, while only 6%
thought the world would succeed in limiting global heating to 1.5°C
above preindustrial levels, a survey published Wednesday by _The
Guardian _revealed
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Nearly three-quarters blamed world leaders' insufficient action on a
lack of political will, while 60% said that corporate interests such
as fossil fuel companies were interfering with progress.

"I expect a semi-dystopian future with substantial pain and suffering
for the people of the Global South," one South African scientist
told _The Guardian_. "The world's response to date is
reprehensible—we live in an age of fools."

The survey was conducted by _The Guardian_'s Damian Carrington, who
reached out to every expert who had served as a senior author on an
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report since 2018.
Out of 843 scientists whose contact information was available, 383
responded.

He then asked them how high they thought temperatures would rise by
2100: 77% predicted at least 2.5°C and nearly half predicted 3°C or
more.

"What blew me away was the level of personal anguish among the experts
who have dedicated their lives to climate research," Carrington wrote
on social media. "Many used words like hopeless, broken, infuriated,
scared, overwhelmed."

The 1.5°C target was agreed to as the most ambitious goal of the
Paris agreement of 2015, in which world leaders pledged to keep
warming to "well below" 2°C. However, policies currently in
place would put
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world on track for 3°C, and unconditional commitments under the Paris
agreement for 2.9°C.

The survey comes on the heels of the hottest year on record
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already saw a record-breaking Canadian wildfire season
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well as extreme, widespread heatwaves
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deadly floods
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The first
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also been the hottest of their respective months on record, and the
year has already seen
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fourth global bleaching event for coral reefs.

"I think we are headed for major societal disruption within the next
five years," Gretta Pecl of the University of Tasmania told _The
Guardian_. "[Authorities] will be overwhelmed by extreme event after
extreme event, food production will be disrupted. I could not feel
greater despair over the future."

Scientists said that governments and companies that profit from the
burning of fossil fuels had prevented action. Many also blamed global
inequality and the refusal of the wealthy world to step up, both in
terms of reducing their own emissions and helping climate vulnerable
nations adapt.

"The tacit calculus of decision-makers, particularly in the
Anglosphere—U.S., Canada, U.K., Australia—but also Russia and the
major fossil fuel producers in the Middle East, is driving us into a
world in which the vulnerable will suffer, while the well-heeled will
hope to stay safe above the waterline," Stephen Humphreys at the
London School of Economics said
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Despite their grim predictions, many of the scientists remained
committed to researching and speaking out.

"We keep doing it because we have to do it, so [the powerful] cannot
say that they didn't know," Ruth Cerezo-Mota, who works on climate
modeling at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, told _The
Guardian_. "We know what we're talking about. They can say they don't
care, but they can't say they didn't know."

Others found hope in the climate activism and awareness of younger
generations, and in the finding that each extra tenth of a degree of
warming avoided protects 140 million people from extreme temperatures.

"I regularly face moments of despair and guilt of not managing to make
things change more rapidly, and these feelings have become even
stronger since I became a father," said Henri Waisman of France's
Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations.
"But, in these moments, two things help me: remembering how much
progress has happened since I started to work on the topic in 2005 and
that every tenth of a degree matters a lot—this means it is still
useful to continue the fight."

Peter Cox of the University of Exeter added: "Climate change will not
suddenly become dangerous at 1.5°C—it already is. And it will not
be 'game over' if we pass 2°C, which we might well do."

Many of the scientists who still saw a hope of keeping 1.5°C alive
pinned it on the speeding rollout and falling prices of
climate-friendly technologies like renewable energy and electric
vehicles. Also on Wednesday, energy think thank Ember reported
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30% of global electricity came from renewables in 2023 and predicted
that the year would be the "pivot" after which power sector emissions
would start to fall. Experts also said that abandoning fossil fuels
has many side benefits such as cleaner air and better public health.
Though even the more optimistic scientists were wary about the
unpredictable nature of the climate crisis.

"I am convinced that we have all the solutions needed for a 1.5°C
path and that we will implement them in the coming 20 years," Henry
Neufeldt of the United Nations' Copenhagen Climate Center told _The
Guardian_. "But I fear that our actions might come too late and we
cross one or several tipping points."

Several scientists gave recommendations for things that people could
do to move the needle on climate. Humphreys suggested "civil
disobedience" while one French scientist said people should "fight for
a fairer world."

"All of humanity needs to come together and cooperate—this is a
monumental opportunity to put differences aside and work together,"
Louis Verchot, based at the International Center for Tropical
Agriculture in Colombia, told _The Guardian_. "Unfortunately climate
change has become a political wedge issue… I wonder how deep the
crisis needs to become before we all start rowing in the same
direction."

The publication of _The Guardian_'s survey prompted other climate
scientists to share their thoughts.

"As many of the scientists pointed out, the uncertainty in future
temperature change is not a physical science question: It is a
question of the decisions people choose to make," Texas Tech
University climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe wrote
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media. "We are not experts in that; And we have little reason to feel
positive about those, since we have been warning of the risks for
decades."

Aaron Thierry, a graduate researcher at the Cardiff School of Social
Sciences, pointed out
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Guardian_'s results were consistent with other surveys of scientific
opinion, such as one published
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the lead-up to COP26, in which 60% of IPCC scientists said they
expected 3°C of warming or more by 2100.

James Dyke of the University of Exeter's Global Systems Institute
argued that there was room for scientists to share more negative
thoughts without succumbing to or encouraging defeatism.

"I hear the argument that we must temper these messages because we
don't want people to despair and give up. But I'm not despairing, I'm
not giving up. I'm pissed off and more determined to fight for a
better world," Dyke said
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media.

NASA climate scientist Peter Kalmus shared
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article with a plea to "please start listening."

"Elected and corporate 'leaders' continue to prioritize their personal
power and wealth at the cost of irreversible loss of essentially
everything, even as this irreversible loss comes more and more into
focus. I see this as literally a form of insanity," Kalmus wrote,
adding that "capitalism tends to elevate the worst among us into the
seats of power."

However, he took issue with the idea that a future of unchecked
climate change would be only "semi-dystopian."

"We're also at risk of losing any gradual bending toward progress, and
equity, and compassion, and love," Kalmus said. "All social and
cultural struggles must recognize this deep intersection with the
climate struggle."

_Olivia Rosane is a staff writer for Common Dreams._

* Global warming
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* climate scientists
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* environmental disaster
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