Trump Steals Lead with Swing Voters Including Women and College Graduates in New Poll

The latest Rasmussen poll shows former President Donald Trump up over President Joe Biden by a full ten points, and suggests a concerning trend for Biden among women, young people, Hispanics, and independents. However, a full nine percent of voters favor Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the poll, including a broad coalition of swing voters. The poll also shows former President Trump leading President Biden with college-educated voters by eight points, a significant reversal from the 2020 election when he lost their vote by twelve points. According to the Rasmussen poll, Trump is up over Biden by eight points with college-educated voters, 43 percent to 35 percent. While Trump’s margin with college-educated voters is still smaller than his margin with non-college voters, his edge with educated voters is a major reversal from 2020, when Biden walked away with 55 percent of college graduates compared to Trump’s 43 percent. The poll shows Trump leading those without a college degree by around 20 points, in comparison.

This week, the House GOP must not vote for chaos

Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning: “It is anticipated that a Motion to Vacate the Chair will be brought up in the House of Representatives this week. A vote for the motion is a vote for chaos, which would embolden President Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and be extremely damaging to the limited government agenda…Those concerned about exploding debt refuse to vote for spending legislation which turns a blind eye toward massive government spending increases, even when necessary limitations on Biden’s unconstitutional expansion of government are included. This leaves two choices – a government shutdown of the 30 percent of the government funded by appropriations bills or a higher spending bill dictated by the Democrats. Given that there are not the votes to shut down the government in the House, House leadership is forced to deal with the Democrat-controlled Senate and Biden administration with a very weak hand. The Motion to Vacate the Chair which removed Kevin McCarthy from the office and the ensuing two week gut wrenching leadership decision created a very weak Speaker’s office for the rest of this Congress. The current one-vote GOP majority in the House exacerbates that weakness, as any two GOP members can take down the Speaker unless Democrats come to his aid.”

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By Manzanita Miller

A majority of polls nationally show a close race between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, even as the lawsuit against Trump for allegedly falsifying business records continues in Manhattan. While the race remains tight, there are worrying signs for Biden among key demographics he relied on heavily in 2020, most notably women, young people, Hispanics, and independents. There is also a possible reversal among college-educated Americans, with polls showing those with a college education may be flipping back toward Trump after supporting Democrats heavily in the last two election cycles.

A CNN poll from last week shows Trump leading Biden by six points, 49 percent to 43 percent, advancing his lead after Biden secured a brief blip in the polls in mid-April. The same poll found Americans have increasing nostalgia for the way Trump governed, with over half the public – 55 percent – saying Trump’s presidency was a success. The public has been much less willing to give Biden a thumbs up, with a dismal 39 percent of Americans saying Biden’s presidency has been a success, while 61 percent say his presidency has been a failure.  

The latest Rasmussen poll shows Trump up over Biden by a full ten points, and suggests a concerning trend for Biden among women, young people, Hispanics, and independents. However, a full nine percent of voters favor Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the poll, including a broad coalition of swing voters.

The poll also shows former President Trump leading President Biden with college-educated voters by eight points, a significant reversal from the 2020 election when he lost their vote by twelve points.

According to the Rasmussen poll, Trump is up over Biden by eight points with college-educated voters, 43 percent to 35 percent. While Trump’s margin with college-educated voters is still smaller than his margin with non-college voters, his edge with educated voters is a major reversal from 2020, when Biden walked away with 55 percent of college graduates compared to Trump’s 43 percent. The poll shows Trump leading those without a college degree by around 20 points, in comparison. 

This edge with college-educated voters evaporates among Americans with a graduate degree, a group Biden carries by twelve points according to the poll. This is a significant shift among college-educated voters that is validated in other polls as well. The April New York Times poll shows college-educated voters say the Biden years have been “mostly bad” for America by five points. College-educated voters also disapprove of his handling of the economy by eight points, his handling of foreign conflict by sixteen points, and his handling of immigration by a full 20 points.

Women are another swing voter group that heavily supported Biden in 2020 but appear to be gravitating toward Trump in recent polls. The Rasmussen poll shows a dwindling gender gap, with Trump winning women by nine points, 45 percent to 36 percent, and men by twelve points, 48 percent to 36 percent. This is a much smaller gender gap than was seen in 2020, when Biden won women by fifteen points, 57 percent to 42 percent and Trump won men by eight points.

The Times polling hints at the issues driving women away from Biden. Women disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy by a wide twenty-one-point margin, 59 percent to 38 percent. Women also disapprove of Biden’s handling of foreign conflict by seventeen points, 56 percent to 39 percent, and his handling of immigration by twenty points, 58 percent to 38 percent.

Trump has also gained relative to his 2020 numbers among Hispanics, young people, and independents. Rasmussen shows Trump up narrowly over Biden among voters under 39, earning 36 percent of the vote to Biden’s 34 percent, and beating Biden by eight points among Hispanics. The poll also shows Trump beating Biden by eighteen points with independents, all sizeable shifts compared to last presidential election. 

Whether these results translate in November is yet to be seen, but Biden’s once solid hold on higher educated Americans and women appears to be slipping. It is worth noting that ten percent of women and twelve percent of college educated voters say they would support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the Rasmussen poll over either Trump or Biden. There is the possibility that at least a portion of these voters will swallow their discontentment and end up supporting Biden in November, but their hesitancy is an opportunity for Trump.

Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/05/trump-steals-lead-with-swing-voters-including-women-and-college-graduates-in-new-poll/

 

This week, the House GOP must not vote for chaos

May 6, 2024, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning today issued the following statement urging House Republicans to reject the motion to vacate House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.):

“It is anticipated that a Motion to Vacate the Chair will be brought up in the House of Representatives this week.  A vote for the motion is a vote for chaos, which would embolden President Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and be extremely damaging to the limited government agenda.

“It is virtually impossible to satisfy all sides in the Republican Conference on a vast majority of issues.  The national defense contingent has seemingly always traded more domestic spending and increasing mandatory spending liabilities for more Pentagon spending.

“Those concerned about exploding debt refuse to vote for spending legislation which turns a blind eye toward massive government spending increases, even when necessary limitations on Biden’s unconstitutional expansion of government are included. This leaves two choices – a government shutdown of the 30 percent of the government funded by appropriations bills or a higher spending bill dictated by the Democrats.

“Given that there are not the votes to shutdown the government in the House, House leadership is forced to deal with the Democrat-controlled Senate and Biden administration with a very weak hand.

“The Motion to Vacate the Chair which removed Kevin McCarthy from the office and the ensuing two week gut wrenching leadership decision created a very weak Speaker’s office for the rest of this Congress. The current one-vote GOP majority in the House exacerbates that weakness, as any two GOP members can take down the Speaker unless Democrats come to his aid.

“Let’s be clear. Between now and January of 2025, there are not the votes to pass significant limited government legislation into law. This leaves control of the committees as the only way that an agenda designed to pull America back from the precipice the Biden administration has put our nation on can be moved forward.

“Preparing for a robust 2025 needs to become the top priority for the GOP House of Representatives. The likelihood that a bi-partisan majority either protects Speaker Johnson or elects a new Speaker is strong, and it would be foolish to proceed with a Motion to Vacate vote in this political landscape.

“I greatly sympathize with and share the frustration of those who have stated their support for the Motion to Vacate. But unfortunately, the reality on May 6, 2024 is that no Speaker could deliver border fixes in a world where the President politically benefits from continued chaos.

“Our nation is in a time of peril, and it seems as if there is nothing that can be done. Nothing can be further from the truth. What is needed is a recognition of what season we are in. We are in the season of sowing, not reaping. If we are to reap a great harvest in early 2025, GOP Congressional leadership need to be empowering the committees to prepare the ground, plant the seeds and provide ample water and fertilizer to facilitate strong growth. Putting up a Motion to Vacate the Chair vote would be disastrous for this process to succeed.

“Americans for Limited Government urges House Republicans to reject the Motion to Vacate the Chair. It is the wrong action at the wrong time.”

To view online: https://getliberty.org/2024/05/this-week-the-house-gop-must-not-vote-for-chaos/

 

Radicalizes Students Expose Educational Rot Many At Universities

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