To:       Interested parties

From:   Jason Roe

Date:    May 7, 2024

Re:       State of the Race

Another poll shows Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft with his largest lead in the race for Governor since announcing over a year ago. The Tyson Group released a poll last month showing Jay leading the pack by 25%, on the heels of an ARW Strategies poll showing Jay up 23% over his nearest competitor.

Kehoe continues to benefit from the Jefferson City lobbyists and special interest groups, who have largely funded his campaign, many of them beneficiaries of the doubling in state spending over the last six years.

Eigel, who is banking on his combative personal style, with little accomplishment to point to, has benefitted from using scam pac-tactics to raise money, and generous funding from trial attorneys. The Trump campaign issued a cease and desist letter against Eigel when it was revealed he was swindling Trump donors.

As of the most recent campaign finance reports, Kehoe has $6.2 million in the bank, compared to $2.6 million for Ashcroft, and $1.7 million for Eigel. While Kehoe has a fundraising advantage, he is very vulnerable on the key issues facing GOP primary voters.

• Kehoe voted twice to allow China to buy Missouri farmland and voted to override Gov. Jay Nixon’s veto of the bill. Kehoe’s position is opposed by 83% of GOP primary voters.

• Kehoe authored and voted for multiple gas and sales tax increases, opposed by 68% of GOP primary voters.

• Kehoe is supported by every Jefferson City lobbyist and special interest group, opposed by 66% of GOP primary voters.

• Kehoe announced an intent to weaken Missouri’s pro-life laws, while Missouri Right to Life issued their single endorsement to Secretary Ashcroft.

As Secretary of State, Jay led efforts to strengthen Missouri election law, and today, the Heritage Foundation Election Integrity Scorecard puts Missouri in the top 10 nationally.

• Jay authored an election integrity law that requires voter ID, bans ballot drop boxes, and Zuckerbucks (outside money funding election operations). On this issue, GOP primary voters are 70% more likely to vote for Jay - 49% much more likely.

• Jay authored legislation to ban China, North Korea, Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela from owning any Missouri land. GOP primary voters are 83% more likely - 64% much more likely.

• Jay instituted new rules for Wall Street money managers that requires them to notify their customers when they use woke ESG strategies instead of best return on investment. GOP primary voters are 69% more likely - 46% much more likely.

• Jay instituted new rules for Missouri’s taxpayer-funded libraries, requiring them to keep all obscene materials away from children. GOP primary voters are 67% more likely - 48% much more likely.

In 2020, Jay earned the highest vote total of any candidate in Missouri history, including President Trump. Additionally, Jay’s conservative profile against an establishment Republican like Kehoe is preferred by 68% of primary voters, with 49% much more likely.

With just 90 days until the primary election, Jay maintains a strong lead but we expect that to close as Kehoe’s spending ramps up, making this a horse race to the finish.