Hi james,
The hush money trial of Donald J. Trump has always been a political story as much as a legal one. On a fundamental level it should be just another criminal case working its way through the American justice system. The prosecutors present evidence, the defense offers their arguments, and the jury decides. Instead, starting with the jury selection process, this trial has been interrupted, confused, and derailed by the political chaos swirling about it.
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Having violated his gag order at least ten times already, Trump should behind bars. It’s a passé observation by now to point out that were he anyone else he would be. Instead, Judge Juan Merchan has exercised extreme restraint, cutting Trump slack in the hopes of safely navigating the charged political atmosphere. He’s gone out of his way to avoid the appearance of partisan impropriety, in large part because he feels a need to counteract the toxic narrative that Trump has been pushing that the entire case is a witch hunt puppeteered by the Biden administration.
That said, even Merchan has his limits. After Trump’s latest round of violations, he unequivocally warned him that any further violations will result in incarceration. Trump responded by telling reporters that he’ll make the “sacrifice” of going to jail if that’s what it takes to save the Constitution (the very same Constitution that he would have destroyed forever had his attempted coup succeeded).
Charge Kristi Noem with animal cruelty!
Despite his blustering words, Trump is clearly scared of getting locked up. If he really wanted to land himself behind bars to prove some kind of political point he wouldn’t have threatened to violate the gag order again. He would have simply violated it. All he had to do was launch another attack on Michael Cohen during his remarks to those reporters. As is always the best practice with Trump, pay attention to what he does and not what he says. He may say that he’s not afraid of going to jail but he’s biting his tongue to avoid it.
It’s almost certainly not just personal fear of a concrete cell and commissary rations that has Trumped worried. By now he’s realized that all of these legal proceedings are directly undermining his strongman persona. He’s already been forced to pay fines and delete his offending social media posts. If, after all of that, he ended up behind bars he would find himself at the nadir of his political career. You can’t really be a fascist cult leader who exists above the law if the law has you locked up in a cage.
If we want to chip away at voter turnout from Trump’s base, here’s where we do it. The MAGA crowd sees Trump as a powerful authoritarian force for punishing their perceived political and cultural enemies. If we push the idea, clearly supported by the facts, that he’s instead a profoundly weak leader incapable of protecting even himself — to say nothing of his supporters’ interests — he becomes a far less formidable force at the ballot box. We’re lucky in that Donald Trump is, both morally and intellectually, the weakest man to ever seek the presidency. Now we just have to help everyone see it.
Stay focused, stay energized.
Brian
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