Marlins fans are all too familiar with fire sales of the team’s rosters, a regular occurrence for the franchise for the past quarter-century, and one spanning multiple ownership groups.

But now, those deconstructions are seemingly happening earlier and earlier in a season. 

Just a week into May and nearly three months before MLB’s July 30 trade deadline, the Marlins parted with two-time batting champion Luis Arraez, arguably the team’s most marketable player, in a trade with the Padres. Miami sent Arraez and about $7.9 million in cash considerations to San Diego, leaving the Padres responsible for only a prorated share of the $740,000 MLB minimum salary, for four prospects. 

The Marlins reached the playoffs last year, raising hopes of a different era emerging under owner Bruce Sherman. But instead, a familiar pattern of roster gutting is happening again as the Marlins went into Monday’s game at the Dodgers with a 10–26 record, second worst in the National League. 

“We are unlikely to make the playoffs this year,” said Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix.

In a pure statistical sense, Bendix indeed is probably correct, as FanGraphs gives Miami just a 0.5% chance of reaching the postseason. But barely one-fifth of the way into the 2024 season, it’s still a tough pill to swallow for a fan base who’s already taken many hits over the years. 

Bendix said, “The difficulty of a trade like this is magnified when it happens so early in the season.”

While the A’s are dead last in MLB in attendance—and with reason given the team’s impending move to Sacramento and Las Vegas—the Marlins are 29th at 12,598 per game, down 3% from a year ago. Tickets for Miami’s home game Friday against Philadelphia, the first back since the trade, can be purchased on official MLB partner platform SeatGeek for as little as $5. Tickets to other home games later this month can be had for as little as $2.

The Marlins also continue to spend well under what their market size and home stadium would suggest. Despite playing in the No. 18 U.S. media market and having a 15-year home ballpark largely built with public funds, the club’s 2024 payroll is 28th at just under $100 million. 

The A’s, meanwhile, have won eight of their last 10 games—including a weekend series win over the Marlins—to rise to third place in the AL West. 

More Timing Considerations

Former Marlins president David Samson, who presided over prior fire sales for the club, was supportive of the club on his podcast, Nothing Personal with David Samson. And he argued moving Arraez now allowed the team to maximize its trade leverage with the Padres given the player won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 season. Arraez is again eligible for arbitration after this season, but the Padres still have nearly two years of control of the 27-year-old. 

“If you know you’re going to take Arraez off your team and you know you’re not going to sign him [long-term], the question is when you get the most value for him,” Samson said. “The decision is not between May 3rd and July 30th. It’s between December 3rd and then May through July.”

The Miami Grand Prix has come and gone, and Formula One speedsters won’t be back at another U.S. track for five and a half months. But before Red Bull Racing, Max Verstappen, and all their challengers return Stateside for events in Austin and Las Vegas this fall, an F1 competitor of sorts will get a chance to bask in the American spotlight next month.

Formula E, a 10-year-old electric racing series with cars not too different-looking than those in F1 (although a little bit slower), sees the U.S. market as a key growth area as it enters its next decade. In late June, FE will touch down in Portland to conduct the lone U.S. race weekend on its calendar. But before then, FE is likely to announce the schedule for 2025, which will be its 11th season, and growing the series’ footprint here—as F1 has done—is a top priority.

“I’m aware of six other cities in North America that have contacted us and we’re in contact with about bringing a race to them in the future,” Formula E CEO Jeff Dodds tells Front Office Sports. Portland hosted its first FE race last year after the New York City ePrix, held annually from 2017 to ’22 (except for ’20 due to the COVID-19 pandemic), was disbanded due to construction at the Brooklyn Cruise Terminal disrupting the street race’s buildout. Previous seasons have also seen FE races in Long Beach, Calif., and Miami.

The Contenders Are …

In addition to potentially staying in Portland or returning to Southern California, Dodds says Formula E has also had conversations with interested parties in Atlanta, Austin, Chicago, Detroit, Nashville, and Phoenix. And, like F1’s quick growth from just one U.S. race in 2021 to three in ’23, Dodds thinks the U.S. market is big enough for three FE races, too, maybe as soon as ’30. 

“I’ll make this up, but let’s say we have one in New York and one in Los Angeles; I think you would then take a view on whether there’s also room for one in the middle of the country or there’s not,” Dodds says. “But, I think, certainly, we move to two quite quickly, and then we see if there’s a place for a third.” Dodds wouldn’t comment on how much it costs for city and FE organizers to host a race but says it varies across markets.

Formula for Success?

Formula E has one team, McLaren, that also fields cars in F1, and another, Andretti, that is trying to break in. And in comparison to F1, the U.S. fan base is much smaller. While F1 races in Miami, Las Vegas, and Austin draw hundreds of thousands of fans each, FE’s Portland event drew an estimated 20,000 last year. The last time FE was in Brooklyn in 2022, about 14,000 fans showed up across two days.

Viewership is a little complicated because Roku, Formula E’s biggest U.S. broadcast partner, doesn’t release audience figures. CBS is showing five races this season, and the telecast of the season-opening Mexico City event averaged 905,000 viewers in January. Last year, F1 averaged 1.11 million viewers across ESPN, ESPN2, and ABC for its entire season.