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Daily News Brief

May 6, 2024

Top of the Agenda

Russia Announces It Will Carry Out Tactical Nuclear Weapons Drills

The drills with troops based near Ukraine will practice (NYT) for the possible use of battlefield nuclear weapons, Russia’s defense ministry said today. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said they are in response to French President Emmanuel Macron reaffirming previous comments that he would not rule out sending ground troops to Ukraine. Peskov also alluded to British Foreign Secretary David Cameron’s comment that Ukraine was free to use British weapons to strike inside Russia. A spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence service said (Reuters) that “nuclear blackmail is a constant practice of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s regime.” 


Today’s announcement is the first time Moscow has publicly declared drills regarding tactical nuclear weapons, the Associated Press reported. It comes a day before Putin will be inaugurated for a fifth term in office.

Analysis

“The exercises mark a return to nuclear saber-rattling for Putin,” the Financial Times’s Andy Bounds and Max Seddon write. “Though [tactical nuclear weapons] carry a smaller payload than intercontinental nuclear weapons targeting the U.S., the warheads can still release significantly more energy than the weapons dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945.”


“In reality, sending European troops [to Ukraine] would be a normal response to a conflict of this kind. Russia’s invasion disrupted the regional balance of power, and Europe has a vital interest in seeing the imbalance corrected,” the Center for European Policy Analysis’ Alex Crowther, the U.S. Naval War College’s Jahara Matisek, and the University of St. Andrews’ Phillips P. O’Brien write for Foreign Affairs.

 

Middle East and North Africa

Israel Orders Evacuation of Eastern Rafah

The Israeli military’s order for at least one hundred thousand civilians to evacuate the southern Gaza Strip city comes (FT) as the fate of a potential cease-fire and hostage release agreement remain unclear. Over the weekend, a Hamas rocket attack killed (Haaretz) four Israeli soldiers. Israel’s government also ordered the shutdown (Axios) yesterday of media outlet Al Jazeera for at least forty-five days; the move followed the passage of an April law that authorized the closure of foreign news networks deemed a threat.

 

On this episode of The World Next Week podcast, Jeffrey Gedmin and CFR’s Robert McMahon and Carla Anne Robbins discuss global threats to press freedom.

 

Brazil/United Arab Emirates: The Emirati sovereign wealth fund plans to invest (FT) around $13.5 billion in a biofuels project in Brazil over the next ten years, an official announced. 

 

Pacific Rim

China’s Xi Begins First European Tour in Five Years 

Chinese President Xi Jinping met (Reuters) French President Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Paris today for talks focused on trade tensions and the war in Ukraine. Macron called for a more “balanced” trade relationship between Europe and China. In the past few weeks, the European Union has launched trade probes into some of China’s exports, such as electric vehicles. 

 

On this episode of The President’s Inbox podcast, CFR expert Brad W. Setser discusses China’s export surge.


U.S./Philippines: The countries simulated their response (Bloomberg) to an invasion of the northern Philippine island of Itbayat, near Taiwan, as part of joint military drills today. The United States is helping to build a warehouse to upgrade infrastructure on the island.

 

South and Central Asia

Canadian Authorities Arrest Three Indian Nationals in Probe of Killed Sikh Separatist

The men are suspected (AP) of killing a Sikh separatist leader outside of Vancouver last June as investigators continue to probe potential ties to the Indian government, a Canadian police official said. The case increased tensions between the two governments, though India has denied any involvement in the killing.


U.S./Azerbaijan: U.S. Representative Henry Cuellar (D-TX) was indicted (NYT) on accusation of taking payments from Azerbaijan and pushing policies favorable toward the country at the federal level, according to charges unsealed Friday. The yearslong scheme also allegedly involved a Mexican bank and Cuellar’s efforts to protect the Mexican banking sector. Cuellar denied any wrongdoing.

 

Sub-Saharan Africa

Chad Holds Presidential Election

Today’s vote comes (RFI, Reuters) three years after Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno took power following the killing of his father and pits Déby against his prime minister, Succès Masra. Masra was previously Déby’s political opponent. Final results are expected by the first week of June.

 

For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR expert Michelle Gavin outlines prospects for Chad’s democratic transition. 


Mozambique: The country’s ruling party selected (Bloomberg) Daniel Francisco Chapo, governor of central Inhambane province, as its next leader and candidate to represent the party in Mozambique’s October 9 election. Outgoing President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi has led Mozambique for nearly a decade.

 

Europe

Labor’s Khan Wins Unprecedented Third Term as London Mayor

Sadiq Khan of the United Kingdom’s Labour Party was reelected (FT) as mayor of London in local elections last week that brought losses for the ruling Conservative Party nationwide and were seen as a bellwether for general elections next year. Conservatives lost about half (AP) of council seats they held nationwide. 

 

Americas

Stand-In Candidate for Former President Wins Panamanian Election

José Raúl Mulino was a last-minute substitute (AP) when it became clear that former President Ricardo Martinelli would remain blocked from running due to corruption convictions. With more than 92 percent of votes counted yesterday, Mulino had a nine-point lead over his closest competitor. He takes office at a time when Panama is facing several challenges, including a relatively bleak economic growth outlook and historic migration levels.


Brazil: The death toll from heavy flooding in southern Rio Grande do Sul state rose (Reuters) to 78, while 105 were reported missing, local authorities said yesterday. More than 115,000 total people have been displaced. The El Niño climate phenomenon contributed (AP) to making these the state’s worst floods in at least eighty years, scientists said.

 

United States

Boeing Starliner Due to Launch First Crewed Spacecraft

Two NASA astronauts are set to take off (CNN) from Florida this evening for the International Space Station. Previous plans for the spacecraft’s launch have seen multiple delays. If the launch is successful, aircraft company Boeing is expected to join the firm SpaceX in regularly shuttling astronauts to the space station.

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