Demonstrators protest against a controversial bill limiting so-called foreign influence in Tbilisi, Georgia, on April 28, 2024. (Photo by Nicolo Vincenzo Malvestuto/Getty Images)

This week, hundreds of thousands of Georgians took to the streets to protest a new “Russian law” designed by a pro-Moscow party to shut down political opposition.

Luke Coffey writes in Foreign Policy that, to prevent Georgia from falling fully into the Kremlin’s sphere of influence, Western governments need to send a message to Tbilisi that this law cannot stand.

Key Insights

1. Georgian Dream, the country’s ruling party, has moved toward Moscow.

After entering office in 2012, Georgian Dream led a coalition that proved to be a good partner for the West. Even though there were always elements inside the party whose sympathies lay with Moscow, they were kept marginalized by the coalition’s Euro-Atlanticist mainstream. Over the years, however, the pro-Russian elements of Georgian Dream worked their way to the top while pushing Western-oriented members out of government. The result is a Georgian Dream that looks nothing like it did in 2012. The party now pursues policies that unfairly marginalize the political opposition. While the government’s official policy favors Georgia joining the European Union and North Atlantic Treaty Organization, little is being done to achieve this goal.

2. The Kremlin is likely to intervene if Georgian Dream’s power begins to slip, just as Moscow has done previously in the region.

The Kremlin is watching closely. The moment it appears that Georgian Dream is losing its grip on power, there is a high likelihood that Moscow will intervene—especially if the government’s downfall comes as a result of mass demonstrations, which, in the Kremlin’s obsessive worldview, would be a “color revolution” conspiratorially engineered by the West. And if you believe that a Russian invasion scenario is unrealistic, you have not been paying attention in recent years. Russian advisors and security forces helped prop up Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko after mass protests following stolen elections in August 2020. In January 2022, Russia led a military intervention in Kazakhstan to restore order after several days of political violence. And Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014 followed the Maidan Revolution, which deposed a Russia-friendly president. There is no reason to think that Russia would not do any of these things in Georgia.

3. Greater Russian involvement in Georgia would harm American and European interests and give Vladimir Putin a much-needed victory.

Controlling Georgia would give Moscow access to more Black Sea coastline at a time when Ukrainian drone and missile strikes are pushing its navy out of the western Black Sea, including the ports in occupied Crimea. Occupying even a small additional slice of Georgia would also give Russia control of every major oil and gas pipeline that connects the vast energy resources of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to Europe; at their closest points, Georgia’s main east-west highway and several energy pipelines almost directly abut Russian-occupied South Ossetia. Any disruption would create significant energy problems for Europe and by extension NATO and the United States. Finally, Russian control of Georgia would establish a much-desired land bridge with Moscow’s ally Armenia. This, in turn, would create a direct land and air corridor between Russia and Iran as the two countries deepen their military cooperation.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length. 

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