Hello John!

Once again, it’s been a big week in politics. Local elections, leadership contests and lots more!

I’ll be bringing you all the news from Blackpool to Birmingham, and Hartlepool to Holyrood.

As usual, I’ll be doing my best to keep you entertained in the process. Enjoy!

Elections Everywhere

This week, millions of people across England and Wales went to the ballot box to pass judgement on the state of the country. 

Local elections are never quite the same as a General Election, but they are a good litmus test. With over 2,500 council seats; 37 police and crime commissioners; and 11 metro-mayors, this is a bumper crop of local elections by anyone's standards. That’s not all though. Another by-election also took place in Blackpool South. 

Results have been trickling through since the early hours of Friday morning with results being announced piecemeal. All results will be announced by the end of Saturday but at time of writing (Friday) I’ll preview what we can expect. Here’s your run-down.

Blackpool Bonanza

It feels like every few weeks we’re covering a new by-election. That’s probably because there have been twenty three over this Parliament - an astonishingly high number. Coincidentally, the last time this round of local elections took place, there was also a by-election in Hartlepool.

This time, the focus was in Blackpool South which the Conservatives won in 2019 for the first time since 1992 with 49.6% of the vote. Things were very different this time around, though. Labour won the seat with 58.9% of the vote, and the Conservatives plummeted to just 17.5% of the vote share - ouch.

There’s a couple of key takeaways. The obvious one is, a huge swing to Labour, which is in step with previous by-election results in Wellingborough; Kingswood; Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire. The swing in Blackpool South at 26.3% is the third-highest by-election swing since 1945 which if replicated in a General Election would be seismic.

The other thing to note is the performance of Reform UK, who polled at 16.9%, just 117 votes behind the Conservatives. There has been a lot of speculation around the impact Reform will have on the General Election, not least by ourselves in our last MRP.

Mayoral Match-Ups

Metro Mayors have become an integral part of the political system in the UK.  Introduced at the turn of the millennium, the Mayor of London was the very first; and we’re now up to thirteen across the country. In fact, around half of England is now represented by a metro-mayor.

In these elections, voters had the chance to vote for Mayors in eleven different combined authorities, three of which are completely new roles (East Midlands; York and North Yorkshire; and the North East which built on the existing North of Tyne Mayor).

Results Already In

The first mayoral result in the Tees Valley saw Ben Houchen re-elected for a third term. As Houchen won in 2021 with a thumping 72.8% share of the vote, defeat for him would have spelled significant danger for the party.

Despite winning, Houchen shed 19.2% off his vote share from last time around. A similar collapse in the Tory vote across the region come the election would mean near annihilation for incumbent Conservative MPs. 

But this was a rare piece of good news for the Tories on Friday. Despite returning a lot of Conservative MPs last time, the East Midlands, as well as York and North Yorkshire both returned Labour Mayors, Claire Ward and David Skaith respectively. It’s a real humiliation for Sunak with the new Labour Mayor of York and North Yorkshire representing his own constituency of Richmond and Northallerton. How’s that General Election looking?

The final result to note was in the North East, where Labour candidate Kim McGuinness was elected. The backdrop to this race was slightly different as the former Mayor of the North of Tyne Jamie Driscoll was the runner-up as an independent candidate. 

Still to be announced

As a football fan, I often find myself looking at 3pm on a Saturday with interest, but this weekend it’ll be because we’re expecting six more mayoral results around then  - and in those, there’s two very big ones.

The West Midlands is potentially one of the most significant contests for the Conservative Party where incumbent Tory Andy Street has been in power for the last seven years. 

Many people have noticed Street’s campaigning tactics have focused heavily on himself, rather than his party. 

With the Tory brand about as toxic as the average river, stream or sea near you - some candidates' have sought to distance themselves from sunak and Andy Street was no exception. He and other Tories have been trying their best to… not be Tories. Straightforward, right?

There’s a good chance that either Labour or the Conservatives could win in the West Midlands  with opinion polling suggesting it’s likely to be extremely tight. One to watch out for. 

But the biggest contest of all is in the capital where Labour’s Sadiq Khan and Conservative candidate Susan Hall are competing against each other in what’s now a first past the post election. This result, expected tomorrow, might be closer than some expected, but the idea of Hall winning is rather terrifying. 

It’s likely the other four mayoral elections announced tomorrow should be business as usual and renewed terms for the incumbents. It’d be a huge shock if Labour didn’t win in Greater Manchester; Liverpool; West Yorkshire or South Yorkshire and that’s at least a positive note to end on regardless of what might happen in the capital.

Councils and Conservative Chaos

It was expected the Conservatives would lose lots of seats in councils across the country, but the damage may be far worse than some may have thought.

Describing it as “near catastrophic”, Political scientist Sir John Curtice suggested “they may end up losing 500 or so seats” which would be extremely damaging for the party, though perhaps not enough to prompt another change of leader. 

The question now is how Conservative MPs respond to these results. Let us wait and see.

Meanwhile… in Holyrood

A vote of no confidence. A new leader. Heavy speculation of an election. Nope it’s not Westminster this time, besides all the local election news, it’s been a turbulent political week in Scotland.  

First Minister Humza Yousaf found himself in an enormously difficult position last week after ending an agreement between the SNP and the Scottish Greens, culminating in a vote of no confidence in Yousaf which all parties backed with the exception of Alba MSP (and former SNP leadership hopeful) Ash Regan, who had the deciding vote. 

Instead of suffering the political ignominy, Yousaf pulled the plug announcing his intention to step down as SNP leader on Monday, triggering a new leadership contest with John Swinney now unopposed in becoming First Minister after previous leadership hopeful Kate Forbes decided not to run.

Shameful Stuff

A grim piece of news, as this week pictures and video were published of some asylum seekers being detained ahead of potential deportation to Rwanda. I don’t want to spend too long talking about this, as it’s a horrible policy that’s nothing more than performative cruelty, it’s just a new low that this seems to have been done to give Sunak a pre-election boost.

Hopefully, with a change of Government we’ll see a change in approach with Sir Keir Starmer categorical in denying reports he would keep the scheme this week, should Labour win the next General Election. 

Identification Prevention

A final story to end on around some Voter ID controversy. For many people, this will be their first time impacted by new legislation introduced while Boris Johnson was Prime Minister that means people must present photo ID to vote

So, you’ll probably think it’s as remarkable as it is ridiculous, that Johnson himself forgot his ID when going to vote. Incredible.

That’s all for this week. I hope you have a great bank holiday weekend!

Best wishes,
Jake Verity
External Affairs Manager
Best for Britain

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