The Union-Tribune’s recent analysis of primary vs runoff results in past San Diego mayoral elections was right on target. 

I was a consultant in all five of the contests spotlighted in the article where the second-place finisher in the primary prevailed over the front-runner in the runoff election – Hedgecock vs O’Connor, Golding vs Navarro, Murphy vs Roberts (I lost that one), Sanders vs Frye and Filner vs DeMaio – and there is a clear pattern in these results.

The front-runner in each primary was better known than the runner-up.  As a result, the primaries were essentially referendums on the front-runners.  

As Donna Frye correctly observes in the article, voters who supported the other candidates were in part voting against the front-runner.  Consequently, the runner-up did far better among these voters than the primary’s first-place finisher. 

Barbara entered this race with far lower name identification than Todd Gloria, but we observed during the campaign that the more voters got to know Barbara, the more they liked her.

When Todd Gloria entered this race, his name identification was already over 50%. Yet, he ended the primary with just over 41% of the vote. It appears that the more voters know about Todd, the more they like other candidates.

Despite being less known than Gloria, Barbara Bry defined the issues in the primary election.

In the runoff election, voters will learn more about both candidates.  History, logic, and experience suggest that in the runoff Barbara will receive the lion’s share of primary voters who didn’t support either of the top two finishers. 

I've gotten to know Barbara's story pretty well this past year-and-a-half. It’s a story filled with overcoming obstacles and surpassing expectations.  For those who know Barbara best, they know better than to underestimate her.

I urge you to read the U-T article and join us in writing the next chapter of this story.

Tom Shepard
Consultant, Barbara Bry for Mayor