Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** April 30, 2024
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Is America Declining? And If So, Will It Rebound?
History is full of great powers that hit a peak, then stagnate, and eventually decline. But only a few countries have been able to recover after facing such headwinds. A new RAND report details why the United States may be in the midst of its own decline--and what it would take to defy the historical odds and recover.
America faces considerable challenges from within: slowing productivity, an aging population, political polarization, and an increasingly poisoned information environment. The country also faces immense threats from the outside: a direct challenge from China and declining deference to U.S. power among dozens of developing nations.
Can the United States address these issues and reclaim its national standing? In one sense, it's poised to do so: America has a proven capacity for resilience; strong industrial and scientific foundations; and a rich reservoir of social actors capable of conducting reform. However, it's unclear whether the nation will confront the threats it faces with the solidarity, understanding, and commitment necessary for national renewal.
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** More Insights
- "Explosive stuff." That's how David Ignatius of the Washington Post described the contents of this report, dedicating his entire column to the study. "Unless Americans can unite to identify and fix these problems," he wrote, "we risk falling into a downward spiral."
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- This new report is part of a larger RAND project led by senior political scientist Michael Mazarr. The first report in the series, published in 2022, lays the groundwork for understanding national competitiveness--why nations rise and fall, succeed or fail, enjoy stability or descend into chaos.
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- The second report, published earlier this year, analyzes how U.S. views on what makes for a successful society contrast with those of America's chief rivals, China and Russia.
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- Another recent study in the series explores what success or failure look like in the context of a great-power rivalry.
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Why a Market for Donor Kidneys Isn't the Best Option
More than 100,000 Americans are currently waiting for a donated kidney; many will die before receiving one. Given this dire situation, some have called for the creation of a regulated market in which donors would be paid for their kidneys. But RAND's Zachary Predmore says that these arguments often fail to account for the logistics of running a complex, national system for organ donation. Further, they shift the conversation away from existing federal reforms that are already making a difference. "We should not look to quick fixes that may or may not actually improve the system," he says. "Rather, the focus needs to continue to build off what we already have." That remains the best route to ensure that everyone who needs a kidney gets one.
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How Might China Use Information Operations in a Conflict with Taiwan?
There are growing concerns that China could use military force against Taiwan. If such a scenario played out, then how might Beijing use disinformation to support its goals? According to RAND's Scott Harold, China would create targeted messaging for different audiences, including both Chinese and Taiwanese society; Taiwan's leadership; and countries like the United States that might step in to help Taiwan. Beijing's primary goal, Harold says, would be to "build a narrative that justifies its military aggression while delegitimating Taiwan's resistance." It would also seek to impose diplomatic costs on countries that may intervene on Taipei's behalf.
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** RAND Recommends
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- New Mexico is now the twelfth state to require a waiting period for gun purchases. On NPR's Weekend Edition, RAND's Rosanna Smart discussed the potential effects of such laws: "We have fairly moderate evidence to support that [waiting periods] can reduce firearm suicides as well as reduce total homicides."
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- Miyeon Oh, a defense researcher with deep expertise in Indo-Pacific geopolitical, economic, and security issues, has joined RAND as the new Korea Policy Chair.
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- RAND's Samuel Charap was interviewed on PRI's The World last week. He discussed what victory in Ukraine would mean for both Kyiv and Washington, how the new U.S. aid package might affect the conflict, and Russia's strategy moving forward.
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** Analyzing the Rise of AI: Insights from RAND
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AI tools are evolving quickly, and decisionmakers are grappling with how to maximize the potential benefits and minimize the risks. Insights from RAND can help. Our researchers have been studying how AI will affect national security, the economy, health care, and much more.
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