Team, people have been asking me recently how I feel about our chances in this race.

In 2022, I won by just 3,500 votes. In a presidential election year, I fully expect an even slimmer margin.

In 2022, Republicans spent $6 million against me. This year, Elise Stefanik named me her top target and pledged to spend up to $100 million to turn New York and my seat red this November. National Republicans have already started spending five-figure amounts on nasty attack ads against me. And we’re still over 6 months from election day!

I could go on, but you get the picture. This is a completely different ballgame. If we’re going to win this thing again, every day counts. Every dollar counts. And especially: Every. Single. Vote. Counts.

Losing this race means our chances of flipping the House all but disappear. And I hate to speak about elections in terms of dollars, but raising an extra $10,000 or $100,000 more by Election Day could help us turn out the 100 or 1,000 voters on Election Day who can mean the difference between victory and losing this seat.

Back to the question. How do I feel about our chances?

Team, here’s what I’ll say for now: I know that we can win again, but we have a lot of work to do between now and then to come out on top on Election Day. Just like in 2022, this race is going to be really damn close.

That’s why I would greatly appreciate your support before next week’s end-of-month deadline. Any amount, whether it’s $10 or $25, could end up making the difference for us this November. That’s how close this race will be.

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Thank you so much for your ongoing support. When we win this race together, I won’t forget it.

Yours in service,

Pat