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March, 2020, Florida County Republican Registrations Report and Elections Analysis
©Stephen R. Meyer, Vero Beach, Florida, April, 2020
Issued 4/05/20
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An error was made in last month's report in using Sumter County's "No Party Affiliation" registrations number instead of the number of Democrat registrations. This resulted in Sumter County being roughly 4,000 registrations more positive than it should have been and the statewide totals being about 4000 registrations more positive than actual. March numbers are hopefully correct. I apologize for the error.
- In last month's report, Sumter County was noted for being the only county that had gains of more than 1000 Republican registrations relative to Democrat registrations. Correcting for the error mentioned above resulted in there being no Florida counties with a gain of over 1000 Republican registrations relative to Democrat registrations (versus Democrats having 16 counties with gains of over 1000 Democrat registrations relative to Republican registrations).
- There were roughly 28 weeks from the end of March to the early voting period of the 2020 election.
- In March, Republican registrations in Florida, relative to Democrat registrations, worsened by 11,274 registrations falling to a 294,152 registration deficit (See attached chart and tables).
The gaining of relative Republican registrations and the gaining of the Republican share of the vote are processes. In any process there are a number of factors that affect the results of the process, with some being more significant than others. Since the 2018 election, of the 67 Florida counties, only 20 counties have seen Democrats gain registrations relative to Republican registrations. This variability amongst the counties suggests that there exists a significant local factor that is driving the difference seen in Republican relative registrations in the counties.
The counties that are seeing large Democrat gains in relative registrations are allocating a relatively high percentage of their building permits to the creation of rental housing. Rental housing is Democrat habitat, which is roughly four times more politically effective for Democrats than is the creation of Republican habitat in positively affecting Republicans. It has to be tremendously frustrating for those Republicans volunteers dutifully undertaking traditional campaign efforts in the aforementioned 20 counties to not see positive results from their efforts. To ease this frustration, and to increase Republican political fortunes, it is recommended that Republican leaders at all levels work to positively affect the significant and underutilized election factor of opposing the creation of Democrat habitat while aiding in the creation of Republican habitat.
Best,
Steve Meyer, Indian River County REC Member
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Joe Saul
Secretary Indian River County REC
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GOD BLESS AMERICA
Joe Saul
Secretary
Indian River County Republican Executive Committee
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