DFP’s newsletter of our latest polls, memos, and memes. 

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Let me see you get down(ballot)

We’ve all been there – you’re filling out your ballot and you get all the way down to the local race for County Precinct Commissioner Judge Place #453. You panic because you totally forgot to look up a ballot guide on the way to go vote and decide to just leave it blank. Unsurprisingly, you’re not the only one. But what may shock you is that this phenomenon is more common among Democrats than Republicans — and may be the difference between state legislatures flipping blue this year.

We teamed up with our friends at Sister District Action Network to study the phenomenon of only voting for the top of the ticket, what they call “down-ballot rolloff.” According to their research, Democrats experience ballot roll-off 80% of the time, compared to only 37% for their Republican counterparts — and Democrats could have gained control of 14 more state legislative chambers in 2020 by increasing their down-ballot votes by just 2% or less (!!!).

Our new survey ([link removed]) looked at who these voters are, and found that compared to down-ballot voters, roll-off voters are more likely to be: women; those who identify with a racial/ethnic category other than white; those under the age of 45; those without a college degree; and those who are ideologically moderate.

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While we still have TikTok, we may need to consider creating a new dance trend that convinces young people to vote in all the races on their ballot — that should solve it! But the results are pretty clear — if Democrats can convince just a small number of voters to vote all the way down the ticket, it can make a big difference in 2024.

Read the topline summary of our survey here ([link removed]) .

Here are some other highlights from DFP this week:

truly the bare minimum

How can the federal government even keep a straight face with the federal minimum wage being an abysmal $7.25?? Air is more expensive than that these days… never mind the cost of groceries and utilities. The minimum wage was last increased on July 24, 2009, when “I Gotta Feeling” by The Black Eyed Peas was number one on the Billboard charts. Times have changed and workers deserve a raise, and we had a feeling that voters agree.

In a new survey ([link removed]) , Data for Progress finds more than 80% of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans believe that the current federal minimum wage is not enough for a decent quality of life — defined as the ability to afford basic necessities like groceries, rent, and transportation without struggling.

And we know that DC has a higher cost of living than many different parts of this country, but we find that rural and swing state voters feel strongly about giving workers a raise too.

Strong majorities of voters in swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) support raising the minimum wage, whether it is bumped up a bit to $9 (88%), $12 (89%), or as high as $17 (62%). The same goes for rural voters, with clear majorities supporting a $9 minimum wage (87%), a $12 minimum wage (85%), and a $17 minimum wage (57%).

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Senate Democrats, it’s time to come together, align on a minimum wage increase, and put it up for a vote. Not only would this further expose Republicans’ faux populist credentials, but it would show workers and their families across our country that you see they are struggling and actively working to deliver for them.

Read the full poll here ([link removed]) .

humans shockingly favor humane approach

We know Republicans and right-wing media, and even some Democrats..., think our border policies should resemble the gates of Hell, but when you actually ask voters about how they’d like our immigration system to look, they prefer a humane approach over a punitive one. Wow, affording people basic human dignity, what a concept!

In a new survey, ([link removed]) we asked one group of voters about a hypothetical candidate who supports a humane approach to asylum and asked another group about a hypothetical candidate who supports a punitive one. Voters — including those living in a swing state — say they would be more likely to vote for the candidate who prioritizes migrants’ basic needs and civil rights.

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The survey also shows that voters believe harsh border tactics are ineffective at deterring immigration and oppose the use of for-profit prisons to detain migrants. When asked where migrants seeking asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border should wait for their court date, a plurality of voters (40%) say “in U.S. communities, in shelters or with sponsors,” while only 19% say they should be “held in prisons or detention centers.”

Y’all, the Statue of Liberty isn’t there just because the French thought we needed to redecorate the New York Harbor. For centuries, our country has stood for welcoming immigrants with open arms — and voters support border policies that align with our values and traditions.

Read the full poll here ([link removed]) .

DFP In The News

New York Times: Biden Earth Day Event Will Try to Reach Young Voters, a Crucial Bloc ([link removed])

Politico: Some voters skip down-ballot elections entirely. Are they the key to victory in November? ([link removed])

Bloomberg: Arizona Abortion Ruling Looms Large for Trump’s Presidential Bid ([link removed])

The Hill:Immigration advocates see work permits as Biden’s best option ([link removed])

Newsweek: Donald Trump's Winning Over Some LGBTQ+ Voters ([link removed])

Vox: Summer Lee’s primary puts Democrats’ divides on Israel on display ([link removed])

On Social
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Meme of the Week
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Donate
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