Hi james,
It may shock you to hear this, but it turns out that racking up historic criminal charges while running for president is a recipe for disaster. For some time now we’ve known that Donald Trump would be going into November with indictments (if not convictions) hanging over his head. This fact was supposedly baked into the mainstream media’s discourse around the election, but it now turns out that the pundits were drastically underestimating the courtroom-related difficulties ahead for the Republican Party’s fascist-in-chief.
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The most readily apparent effect of Trump’s legal problems on his presidential campaign can be seen in the polls. A new Reuter/Ipsos poll found that only 24% of registered voters say that they’ll vote for him if he’s convicted of a felony. 60% said no. Amongst Republicans, 24% said that a conviction would lose their vote. While that number is depressingly low in some ways, it’s devastating in material terms. Trump needs lockstep support from his party if he’s going to stand any chance of beating President Biden and the Democratic Party. If a quarter of his base abandons him, he’s dead in the water.
Then, of course, there’s the circus of the trial itself. Ironically the man who coined the insult comic moniker “Sleepy Joe” for his political opponent has already fallen asleep in court four times. This habitual somnolence not only underscores the fact that Trump is a tired, washed up old man, it suggests a damning corollary. If Trump can’t even manage to stay awake when his freedom is on the line, imagine what he was doing — or more accurately not doing — as president when he was supposed to be working.
To tell Fox to kick Jesse Watters off the air for targeting Trump’s jurors, sign here
An image springs to mind of Trump fast asleep with his head on the Resolute Desk, spilled Diet Coke pooling beneath him, a half-demolished McDonald’s Filet-O-Fish slipping from his grasp. These may seem like petty discussion points given the enormity of Trump’s evildoing, but they do matter. Little things accumulate in the minds of voters. The overall vibe that a candidate projects is often more important than their actual policy proscriptions. For a politician who prides himself on being the ultimate strongman, Trump is looking awfully weak these days.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden is crushing it on the campaign trail. He’s bouncing from one campaign event to the next with the energy and vigor of a man half his age. In simple visual terms, he could not be cutting a sharper contrast to Trump with his head slumped in court.
This trial, in addition to being a PR nightmare, also comes with a massive opportunity cost. Every day that he’s stuck sitting in a courtroom is a day that he’s not out whipping MAGA crowds into a lather with his trademark stew of racism, lies, and incoherent ramblings. On top of that, his endlessly accumulating legal fees are a direct drain on his campaign finances.
Biden can put all of his fundraising gains towards winning the election. Trump has to use most of his to keep himself out of prison. In the end, it still may not be enough to save him.
Stay focused, stay energized.
Brian
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