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Vehicles drive under a massive billboard that is displays an illustrated image of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps missiles in Tehran, Iran, on April 15, 2024. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Following Iran’s large-scale missile and drone salvo against Israel last Saturday, Michael Doran [[link removed]] briefed stakeholders [[link removed]] on what the attack means and how Israel should respond. His key points are below.

Read the full briefing. [[link removed]]

Key Insights

1. Israel’s defense was a military success. But Washington’s restraint of Israel is a strategic failure.

“The Biden administration is making a broader claim that this was a strategic success. I think it was anything but that. In Tehran, no doubt, they were disappointed by the penetration rate of Iran’s missiles, by the failure to do serious damage to any major targets. But the Iranians are playing a political-military game. They elicited an American response that pleased them very much. The Americans are restraining Israel. When the Israelis saw the Iranians getting ready to launch, Jerusalem prepared to preempt, and Joe Biden said, ‘Don’t!’ And then after the Israelis absorbed this attack, Jerusalem prepared to go on the counterattack, and Biden again said, ‘Don’t!’ The more pressure Biden puts on Israel, the more he incentivizes the Iranians to escalate, to exploit the rift between Washington and Jerusalem.”

2. Biden’s failed de-escalation strategy allowed Iran to escalate the conflict.

“This direct attack is a total change in the rules of the game. Iran and Israel have long engaged in a shadow war, but this is something totally different. Of course, the Iranians were aware that coming out from behind their proxies and hitting Israel from Iran proper was a major escalation that entailed serious risks. The goal of their diplomacy before the strike, therefore, was to normalize this mode of action—to receive international legitimacy for striking Israel directly from Iranian territory. With that goal in mind, they telegraphed the attack ahead of time, and they negotiated it, in a sense, with the Americans. There was this exchange of messages through the Turks, in which Biden urged restraint, and signaled that the United States would not itself respond to Iran. That was the key message the Iranians wanted to hear: that the United States wasn’t going to come in behind Israel and attack Iran.”

3. America needs to stand behind its Arab partners.

“Over the weekend, the Saudis and the Jordanians emerged, effectively, as allies of the Israelis against the Iranian attack. Despite all the animosity that Israel’s Gaza campaign has stirred up in the Arab world, Arab leaders want Hamas to be destroyed. But Jordan is now in Iran’s crosshairs. Over the next few months, I predict an Iranian propaganda campaign against King Abdullah of Jordan. We’re going to see tensions on the streets of Amman between, on the one hand, the East Bankers, the Bedouin tribesmen who are loyal to the king and the state and, on the other, the Palestinians. The Muslim Brotherhood, which is backed by the Iranians, can be relied upon to stir things up. It’s likely to get very tense in Jordan.”

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.

Read the full briefing. [[link removed]] Go Deeper

Tehran’s Strike Was Not Symbolic, and It Can Happen Again [[link removed]]

While Israel’s air and missile defense engagements were an operational success, the Islamic Republic’s ability to launch large-scale salvos to bleed one of America’s most important allies in a critical region demonstrates a severe erosion of US deterrence in the Middle East. Can Kasapoğlu [[link removed]] explains why in his latest Iran-Israel Update [[link removed]].

Read [[link removed]]

Is Hamas Winning? [[link removed]]

Michael Doran [[link removed]] discusses [[link removed]] how the Israel-Hamas war fits into Israel’s broader regional conflict with Iran.

Listen [[link removed]]

Israel Shouldn’t “Take the Win” against Iran [[link removed]]

Biden urged Netanyahu to “take the win” and not respond to Iran’s attack. But this would be political suicide for the prime minister and national suicide for Israel, warns Walter Russell Mead [[link removed]] in the Wall Street Journal [[link removed]].

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